Florida vs. Florida State: Picks and Predictions

GAINESVILLE, Fla. -- The Sunshine State Showdown will also be the Battle of the Backup Quarterbacks this year, as Florida and Florida State lost their starting passers, Graham Mertz (shoulder of the Gators and Jordan Travis (leg) of the Seminoles, to not-short-term injuries one week before the annual rivalry bout.

While Florida (5-6, 3-5 SEC) and Florida State (11-0, 8-0 ACC) are in very different places as programs currently, with the Gators' fighting for bowl eligibility and the Seminoles fighting for a College Football Playoff berth, it's now anyone's guess relative to what the football product inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium will look like in Week 13.

Perhaps FSU will roll to victory as has long been predicted; maybe the Max Brown-led UF will shock the world.

Florida State is considered a 6.5-point favorite over Florida in Week 13, according to the Sports Illustrated Sportsbook. The over/under is 48.5 points.

Find All Gators' staff picks for Florida vs. Florida State below.

Brandon Carroll (9-2): Florida State 38, Florida 34

The backup quarterback battle between Florida passer Brown and Florida State’s Tate Rodemaker has significant postseason implications for both sides.

For the latter, the Seminoles are attempting to finish their first undefeated regular season since 2014. Ranked No. 5 in the country, the veteran FSU squad has fulfilled high expectations heading into the season behind super senior quarterback Jordan Travis.

However, his injury has thrown their College Football Playoff hopes into question. It resulted in a drop in the rankings heading in Week 13, as they dropped from four to five.

A convicting win against Florida could serve as a massive boost for their stock heading into an ACC Championship clash with Louisville next Saturday.

Meanwhile, Florida is vying for bowl eligibility, striving to snap a four-game skid while simultaneously knocking off its in-state rival from the pedestal it’s climbed onto this season.

I think Brown has the talent to reel off a few explosive plays to put the Gators in a position to beat the Seminoles, utilizing playmakers Ricky Pearsall and Eugene Wilson III in abundance to effectively post points. His presence as a rusher adds an extra dimension to the UF offense, serving as a complement to Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson Jr. to keep the offense afloat even without Graham Mertz.

But, it ultimately boils down to defense. Florida has sported one of the worst units in the country throughout since Week 4.

While Brown performs well enough to potentially pull off the upset, although I do think he makes a critical rookie mistake, UF’s defense struggles against the steady hand of Rodemaker to fall in a close battle in the Swamp.

Seminoles win, 38-34.

Florida State advances without a loss while Florida’s hopes of bowl eligibility fall by the wayside.

Alex Shepherd (8-3): Florida 30, Florida State 28

The Battle of the Backups, The Fling of the Second Strings. Whatever you want to call it, this game is not what many anticipated it would be coming into this month.

The major storylines for the matchup are well-documented: Both teams will start backup quarterbacks, Florida State hopes to remain undefeated for a shot at playing in the College Football Playoff and Florida needs to secure one more win to become bowl-eligible.

The Seminoles are a formidable force on the defensive front. It ranks within the top 25 nationally in total defense, scoring defense and passing defense. It also ranks No. 3 in the country for opponent third-down conversion percentage with a 26.9% conversion rate allowed.

FSU’s offensive stats have been just as impressive. However, with backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker set to start, this offense could look very different. Rodemaker isn’t a huge threat with his legs, which should allow Florida to focus less on containing the QB run and more on the playmakers around him.

In his four years with the program, Rodemaker has completed 60.2% of his passes with seven touchdowns on five interceptions. I expect the Seminoles will rely heavily on junior running back Trey Benson while pushing the ball downfield to the likes of 6-foot-4 wide receiver Keon Coleman.

But one thing I have learned about this UF team is that even in the face of adversity, the Gators continue to fight.

In arguably the biggest home game of the year, Florida’s fate will now fall into the hands of freshman quarterback Max Brown in his first career start in the Orange and Blue. Call me crazy, but with Brown’s ability to scramble adding a new element to the Gators’ offensive attack, the Seminoles may be in for a surprise.

I’m not one to shy away from wild predictions (like picking Florida to beat Georgia earlier this year), and this game is no different. Both teams will turn to inexperienced backups to take the reins, and I believe that with that added wrinkle and a sold-out Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, the Gators will shock the Seminoles on Senior Night and earn bowl eligibility in comeback fashion.

Zach Goodall (8-3): Florida State 28, Florida 18

Following Florida's loss to Arkansas in Week 10 and before UF's defeat at LSU the next week, I wrote that I would be picking against the Gators for the rest of the regular season.

Then Jordan Travis got hurt. Then Graham Mertz did, too.

Although Florida State is rather inarguably the better team of the two on paper, neither of these squads will look the same without their star signal-callers on Saturday. Given that the matchup is being held in The Swamp, all of a sudden I'm left to wonder if I should hedge my proverbial bet.

But I'm going to stick to it for one reason, even though there are plenty of motivating factors on the Gators' side: FSU quarterback Tate Rodemaker has gone through four years of college development for this moment, while UF quarterback Max Brown has only meaningfully played quarterback for four years, beginning when he shifted his focus to football before his junior season of high school.

Florida State's defense is forcing nearly 1.5 turnovers per game this season, with a combined eight interceptions and 65 pass breakups in coverage across the unit. The Seminoles' five most-utilized coverage defenders are allowing completion percentages of 54.2% or lower when targeted, including two players giving up less than 47%, per Pro Football Focus.

Brown's athleticism could make this game exciting at points, but I think Florida State's polished pass defense will continue to get the job done, this time against a quarterback making his first career collegiate start.

Paired with the weapons Rodemaker will have at his disposal in running back Trey Benson and pass-catchers Keon Coleman, Johnny Wilson and Jaheim Bell, going against a Florida defense that has only regressed since the first quarter of the campaign, Florida State should find a way to exit Gainesville with a comfortable, although certainly not dominant, victory to end the regular season.

Cam Parker (7-4): Florida State 28, Florida 24

It's win or stay home on Saturday in The Swamp.

A win for Florida means bowl eligibility while a loss ends the season. A win for Florida State all but locks up a College Football Playoff spot. Saturday's game, though, isn't going to be the matchup many thought with both starting quarterbacks out with injuries.

Even with Jordan Travis out, Florida's defense has not given me enough confidence to pick the Gators, and it certainly doesn't help that the Gators have their own wildcard in at quarterback with Max Brown.

Now, that's not to say Florida doesn't have a chance. Brown's ability to run the football effectively opens up the run game. That was evident against Missouri with Brown moving the chains with his legs multiple times and lanes opening up for Trevor Etienne to succeed.

I don't think Brown will have to do much in the passing game other than rely on Ricky Pearsall and Eugene Wilson III to get open and Kahleil Jackson to make an acrobatic catch or two. That being said, I expect the offense to run much like it did last season with Anthony Richardson with a lot of quarterback reads.

Still, Florida's offense hasn't been the issue the last three weeks. In fact, it's the reason the Gators have been able to stay in games as long as they have. The defense, however, is playing its worst football of the year.

Even without Travis, there's still running back Trey Benson and receivers Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman to deal with against Florida State. Had Florida beaten Missouri, this prediction would've flipped, but the fourth-and-17 debacle was enough for me to predict the ACC favorites in this matchup.

Conner Clarke (7-4): Florida State 37, Florida 34

The battle of the backups is sure to be an interesting one as the Gators and Seminoles both lost their starting quarterbacks just one game prior to the annual in-state rivalry.

Jordan Travis, the leader and star of Florida State's team, was putting together a solid season with the Noles firmly in contention for the College Football Playoff. While Graham Mertz and the Gators were competing for bowl eligibility. Both teams still have something to play for, just on completely different scales.

Enter Max Brown and Tate Rodemaker, young signal-callers that will see their first action in this storied rivalry who are polar opposites in terms of not only each other's play style, but also that of their predecessors. Brown, a mobile dual-threat option at the position, will be making the first start of his career after nearly leading the Gators to a comeback win over the top 10 Missouri Tigers last weekend. Rodemaker, while more experienced than Brown as a fourth-year junior, will only be making his second career start for the Seminoles.

Both teams have several playmakers — Keon Coleman, Trey Benson and Johnny Wilson for FSU, and Ricky Pearsall, Eugene Wilson III, Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson for UF — who should be able to help the inexperienced quarterbacks.

However, I think the biggest difference-maker will be the performances on the defensive side of the ball for each team. Neither team has been great defensively this year, but I think the matchup between FSU's receivers and UF's defensive backs favors the Seminoles.

At the end of the day, I think the skill position players for Florida State will be too much for Florida to overcome. I've got the Noles in a close one.

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