Key Matchups the Florida Gators Must Win to Defeat Missouri
Photo: Montrell Johnson Jr.; Credit: Alex Shepherd
Old Sun Belt rivals (for one season) will meet once again on Saturday, under vastly different circumstances, this time around when Billy Napier's Florida Gators host Eliah Drinkwitz's Missouri Tigers in Gainesville, Fla.
Napier possesses an 0-2 record against Drinkwitz during their young head coaching careers, both losses stemming from the latter's lone campaign at Appalachian State in 2019 while the former was in year two of four at Louisiana.
Now, Napier is amid his first season in charge of the Florida Gators, while Drinkwitz is in his third season as Missouri's head coach and hopeful that the Tigers are about to turn the corner following a near-upset against the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs a week ago.
In order for Napier to put a '1' in the win column against Drinkwitz, and for Florida to avenge its loss to Missouri in 2021 that sealed the Dan Mullen era of Gators football, UF will need to win the three key matchups against the Tigers broken down below.
Florida's rushing offense vs. Missouri's rushing defense
The consistent strength of Florida's offense has been its rushing attack this year. UF has only averaged less than 5.4 yards per carry in a game once — 3.7 against Tennessee, still scoring three touchdowns on the ground that week — and running backs Montrell Johnson Jr., Nay'Quan Wright and Trevor Etienne as well as quarterback Anthony Richardson have found the endzone a combined 13 times.
Missouri's rushing defense has greatly improved from a year ago, however, and UF averaged an abysmal 2.4 yards per carry on 38 attempts against the Tigers last season.
Former Gators linebacker Ty'Ron Hopper. who we'll discuss more in-depth later, edge rusher Isaiah McGuire, defensive lineman Realus George Jr. and safety Martez Manuel lead a unit that ranks No. 7 in the SEC in rush yards per game (120.6) and No. 5 in yards per rush allowed (3.5). The Tigers ranked No. 14 (227.8) and No. 13 (5.3) in the SEC in these categories, respectively, in 2021.
Richardson handled operating a one-dimensional, passing offense well enough to nearly upset Tennessee on the road in Week 4, and perhaps he could do so again if the Tigers take away Florida's ability to run the ball. Missouri's passing defense ranks No. 10 in the SEC for allowing 216.6 yards per game and has struggled to generate pressure outside of Hopper and McGuire's efforts.
That being said, we believe if UF can impose its will on the ground, it can ultimately run away with the game. Outside of the Volunteers, the Tigers pose the biggest test to Florida's rushing offense to date this season, but the unit has proven capable of winning tough matchups so far.
Gators TEs and OL vs. LB Ty'Ron Hopper
The heart of the Tigers' defense, Hopper is a player that the Gators are quite familiar with. His offseason transfer from Florida to Missouri was viewed as one of UF's most impactful losses to the portal at the time and the theory has been validated over the first five weeks of the season.
Since his move, Hopper has emerged as one of the most versatile and productive linebackers in the SEC this year, if not the FBS.
According to Pro Football Focus, he leads the Tigers in quarterback pressures with 13 (including two sacks) and run-defense "stops" — plays that constitute a failure for the offense — with 12. He ranks third in the conference in tackles for loss with 7.5 and has added an interception and three pass breakups in coverage.
Napier offered a scouting report on the former Gator on Wednesday, acknowledging that Florida is preparing for Hopper to contribute by penetrating the backfield, dropping back in coverage and across Missouri's special teams units.
"I think he's a WILL [weakside linebacker]. I think that's what makes him a good player," Napier explained, a hint that Hopper would have occupied a similar role to Amari Burney if he remained at Florida this season.
"He's got good height and length to him. But he can run, right? He's good in coverage. He's a great blitzer. He'll be a fantastic special teams player at the next level. I think he's a really good football player."
The Tigers have several playmakers across their defense, but none have been as dominant in one area, much less several, than Hopper. UF's offensive line and blocking tight ends will need to prepare for Hopper to manipulate gaps and shoot through them with his lightning-quick burst against the run and pass. He's taken snaps as a left and right rush end, off-ball inside and outside linebacker, and even slot corner this year.
If there's an area Florida can expose in Hopper's game, though, it's in coverage. While Hopper has made several big plays against the pass this year, he's otherwise been picked on, allowing 10 receptions on 14 targets for 104 yards (10.4 yards per catch).
Gators tight end Keon Zipperer has been on a tear over the last two games with five grabs for 109 yards and a touchdown. If he can get into some one-on-ones with Hopper in the passing game, he could find some openings and continue generating big plays. That will require precise throwing from Richardson, though, as Hopper's length allows him to make reaching plays on inaccurate tosses.
UF's passing defense vs. QB Brady Cook
Third-year sophomore Brady Cook replaced former starter Connor Bazelak at quarterback this offseason and has been solid within the role, completing 62.9 percent of his 143 passes for 1,009 yards, five touchdowns and four receptions.
He isn't a consistent threat to push the ball down the field whatsoever, but that hasn't stopped Missouri from trying. Per PFF, Cook has thrown 28 passes of 20+ yards this season, completing just nine (32.1 percent) but those attempts have gone for 39.5 yards on average and resulted in one touchdown when they've been successful.
The majority (87) of Cook's passes, however, have targeted receivers behind the line of scrimmage up to nine yards down the field.
He's 35-of-35 on passes in the backfield and 33-of-52 (63.5 percent) between zero to nine yards with 411 yards and four touchdowns, but also three interceptions, indicating that Florida's linebackers and cornerbacks aligned in man coverage could have some turnover opportunities in the area where Cook is most comfortable.
Cook has also seen his completion percentage drop by 25.5 points this season, 67.2 to 41.7 percent, when he faces pressure from the opposing pass rush. Of the eight sacks he's taken this year, seven have been caused by a four-man or fewer rush, meaning UF shouldn't have to blitz in order to create pressure.
While Cook isn't necessarily a dynamic quarterback, the Gators' pass defense will need to be in sync in order to shut him down. The pass rush will need to be effective with seven defenders in coverage, while those back-seven players must be sound in short-to-intermediate coverage and eliminate missed tackles to prevent yards after the catch.
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