Key Matchups for the Florida Gators to Withstand Road Test At Kentucky
Photo credit: Zach Goodall
This Saturday evening, the Florida Gators look to continue SEC action in week five against the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington, Kentucky.
The rivalry writes its next chapter on what will be another early-season challenge for the Gators. Being the first road test of the season, the Gators enter enemy territory, where they have struggled to come out victorious in their last two attempts.
To assert their dominance and eclipse the projected two-score margin of victory – currently an 8.5-point spread according to SIBetting – AllGators presents three key matchups for the game.
Emory Jones vs. Hostile Environment
The last time the Gators and the Wildcats faced off at Kroger Field, drama ensued.
Stopped one yard short of the line to gain on third and two from the Kentucky 39 yard line, head coach Dan Mullen kept his offense out on the field, attempting to light a spark in a stagnant offensive unit.
Breaking the huddle for what looked to be a critical fourth down, Florida looked at the scoreboard down 21-10 in the third quarter on the road.
Then starting Gators quarterback Feleipe Franks took the snap from under center, failed to find an open receiver in play-action and scrambled in an attempt to pick up the one-yard needed to extend the drive.
Pulled down from behind, Franks failed to reach the first down marker, and a hush fell over the crowd as he remained down on the field.
He dislocated his ankle and proceeded to miss the rest of the season.
With two quarterbacks available to enter the game, seven-year backup Kyle Trask would take over the reins of the offense, leaving the highest-ranked quarterback Dan Mullen has ever recruited on the sideline awaiting his opportunity.
While Trask sparked a Gators' comeback and ultimately left behind an illustrious legacy at UF, Emory Jones' debut was delayed, forcing him to remain patient through the process.
Now, two years later, Jones returns to Lexington to take on the Wildcats – this time as the Gators unrivaled QB1 – for his first true road start.
Finding his footing after a rocky two performances to begin the year, Jones enters a hostile environment against an undefeated Kentucky team that has seriously competed with the Gators in the last four seasons under Mark Stoops.
Ranked No. 9 in total defense and No. 20 in rushing defense, UK can be a disconcerting presence for Jones and the Gators run-oriented offense.
Consequently, Jones could find himself in a situation where he will have to throw the ball more than he's accustomed to so far this season.
Currently completing just over 67% of his passes for 668 yards and five touchdowns on the season, Jones has shown he can succeed with his arm when called upon.
However, he has also shown a propensity to make bad decisions when the play breaks down, resulting in five total picks thrown. Throwing four combined interceptions in weeks one and two, Jones attempted to force balls downfield when his receiving options weren't open.
In weeks three and four – following the first-quarter pick against Alabama – Jones has grown wiser in his decision-making, electing to pull the ball down and use his legs to produce positive yards. As a result, he heads into week five following his first non-turnover performance of the season.
If he can maintain the confidence he has exuded in his past two performances in the daunting atmosphere Kentucky presents, Florida will be able to avoid another scare from a pesky Wildcats squad.
Ball Security: Florida Offense vs. Kentucky Offense
Taking care of the football has been a struggle for both teams thus far in 2021.
In college football, the lack of a preseason creates adequate room for growing pains while teams attempt to find their identity in their first few weeks of the season.
For Florida and Kentucky, that has happened and resulted in valuable offensive possessions being thrown away.
Kentucky currently ranks dead last in turnover margin on the season at -9, turning the ball over an abysmal 12 times while only forcing three of their own. Meanwhile, Florida sits in a similar position, ranking No. 109 out of 130 Division-I schools with a -3 turnover margin.
To put it simply, both teams have been careless with the football through four weeks. However, in favor of the Gators, their opponent's turnover issues tower compared to their own.
Will Levis – much like Jones – has had lapses in judgment in his first year as the Wildcats starting quarterback. Throwing five interceptions this year, Levis has yet to go a game without tossing at least one ball to the opposition.
As a result, Florida's defense will be presented with chances to set up its offense in favorable territory.
The Gators have to not only limit mistakes that could result in turnovers but also take advantage of the abundance of opportunities the Kentucky quarterback has offered other teams to this point in the season.
Whichever team wins the turnover battle will have the best chance to win the game.
Copeland/Davis/Pierce vs. Robinson/Rodriguez/Smoke
The significance of star power.
The Kentucky Wildcats stars have thrived to this point in the season. Currently rostering the SEC's leading rusher, Chris Rodriguez Jr., another threatening back in Kavosiey Smoke, and receiver, Wan'Dale Robinson, Kentucky presents one of the most dangerous attacks the Florida defense will see all season.
While Todd Grantham's unit will game plan to slow the centerpieces of the UK offense, stopping them is a different story. To combat the potential explosiveness of the Wildcats, Florida must look to its own star power on the offensive side of the football.
Through four games, the Gators have accomplished that feat but have done so in an unorthodox way. According to SECStatCat, the Gators currently rank second in the SEC in explosive plays with 51 total, only behind Ole Miss (53).
Of those 51 plays, 80% have come via the Gators resurrected rushing game in 2021. Currently breaking 41 runs for more than 10 yards and having ten passes going beyond 20 yards, Florida has leaned heavily on Dameon Pierce and Malik Davis to make game-changing plays out of the backfield.
As a dominant one-two punch that has the Gators ranking No. 3 in rushing in the NCAA to start the 2021 season, Davis and Pierce have been significant pieces to the puzzle of offensive efficiency in the post-Trask era of Florida football.
The Gators backfield has averaged 7.3 yards per carry. That is the most yards per carry in college football.
As a result, Davis and Pierce will continue to have their numbers called in Florida's game plan, and there is little concern that they won't be able to produce.
However, there could be for the third member of the trio. Facing a Kentucky team that has worked well in stopping the run to this point in the season — albeit against lesser talent than UF — Florida will need to see more production from its top pass catcher, Jacob Copeland.
Tallying an impressive week two stat line, Copeland has shown he can be a big-time home run threat.
Recording five receptions for 175 yards and two scores against USF, Copeland flashed the high-level talent many outsiders believed he'd showcase coming out of high school.
Other than that game, he has been a relative non-factor.
Copeland must make his presence felt on Saturday night for Florida to string together a performance that lives up to its potential against Kentucky.
Simply put, he needs to leave little room for error from his teammates. He needs to outperform Kentucky's WR1.
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