Florida vs. Missouri: Picks and Predictions for Week 12
COLUMBIA, Mo. -- Barring an upset victory over one of the two ranked opponents remaining on its schedule to claim bowl eligibility, Florida's final game away from The Swamp in 2023 will occur Saturday in the SEC mid-west, with the Gators (5-5, 3-4 SEC) set to take on a challenging East opponent in the No. 9 Missouri Tigers (8-2, 4-2 SEC) in Week 12.
The Tigers are favored by 11.5 points over the Gators in Columbia, according to the Sports Illustrated Sportsbook. The over/under is currently 57.5 points.
Find All Gators' picks and predictions for Florida vs. Missouri below.
Brandon Carroll (8-2): Missouri 45, Florida 34
New week, same story.
Florida’s trip to Columbia to take on the No. 9 Missouri Tigers will be another daunting task for the Gators amid a tough three-game losing skid since the bye week.
The Gators offense should be able to find success against Missouri, especially as the team’s leading tackler — former Florida linebacker Ty’Ron Hopper — watches the contest from the sideline with an ankle injury.
However, Austin Armstrong’s downward-trending defense spells trouble for UF’s chances to contend with the high-octane, top-30 Tigers offense led by the arm of Brady Cook. Cook possesses a litany of weapons at his disposal, starting elite sophomore wideout Luther Burden III — who will feature as the team’s top target as he has throughout most of the year.
With 1,000-yard rusher Cody Schrader complementing the talented passing attack, the Tigers will likely become the second team with the big cat moniker to pile onto the Gators in as many weeks.
Florida, as it did a week ago, will lean on its unexpected offensive productivity behind the arm of Graham Mertz to remain in the contest until the end. The Gators have found success through the air through the usage of Ricky Pearsall and Eugene Wilson III.
They also proved efficient in their counter-rushing offense a week ago in Death Valley, in which Trevor Etienne earned a hat trick of scores.
However, Billy Napier’s squad will prove unable to keep up in the shootout in CoMo.
His squad drops below .500 via a 37-26 loss to Missouri as a result before heading into their regular-season finale showdown against the Florida State Seminoles in Week 13.
Alex Shepherd (7-3): Missouri 38, Florida 27
Florida’s offense: adequate. Florida’s defense: abysmal.
This was the story of the Gators' trip to Baton Rouge. Now, as it stares down the barrel of not reaching bowl eligibility, UF must face yet another challenging road test in Columbia against the Missouri Tigers.
While the venue and crowd may be less intimidating than Death Valley, Mizzou possesses an incredibly potent offense capable of hanging 40 on the Gators in a heartbeat. Not to mention, there will be the added emotion of Senior Night taking place.
The Tigers offense boasts a balanced playbook led by senior quarterback Brady Cook and junior running back, Cody Schrader. Cook currently sits within the top 20 nationally in multiple statistics, including passing yards per game (No. 18) and passing efficiency (No. 14). Additionally, while he isn’t as mobile as LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Cook can use his legs to create space and make plays. His top wideout, sophomore Luther Burden, will likely surpass 1,000 receiving yards on the year in the contest as well.
Schrader is a whole 'nother problem Florida will have to pay attention to. Coming off a massive game against Tennessee, where he was responsible for 321 yards of offense, he currently sits within the top 10 nationally in rushing yards and has proven to be an explosive option for the Tigers' offense.
Similar to last week’s prediction, almost everything will come down to how Florida’s defense performs. It has shown very little ability in recent weeks to stop any sort of offensive attack, which makes picking Florida extremely difficult. I feel Florida’s offense keeps the Gators in this one late, but ultimately the Tigers prevail and come out on top.
Zach Goodall (7-3): Missouri 38, Florida 24
Florida opened its daunting three-game slate against ranked opponents with electric offenses to end the season by giving up a single-game program-worst 701 yards at LSU last week.
Although Missouri does not boast a playmaker quite like Jayden Daniels, who can account for 600+ yards on their own, the Tigers are similar to the Tigers in the sense that their offense can take advantage of a woeful Gators' defense.
I predict just that on Saturday.
The quartet of Brady Cook, Cody Schrader, Luther Burden III and Theo Wease Jr. will prove too much for Florida to handle, marching down the field to score touchdowns over Missouri's first four drives to force the Gators to play from behind immediately and throughout the course of the game.
Florida's passing offense will do enough in response to narrow Missouri's lead as the game lingers on, with Ricky Pearsall eclipsing 1,000 receiving yards on the season in the second half. Freshman Eugene Wilson III will crack 500 yards on the year, too, and extend his team-leading count of receiving touchdowns to six.
A pair of defensive stops in the third quarter will offer the Gators some confidence after getting within one score of the Tigers, but a fourth-quarter Schrader touchdown will put this matchup away later in the game, giving Missouri back a two-possession lead that it won't relinquish again.
Conner Clarke (6-4): Missouri 40, Florida 27
The Gators head to Columbia in an attempt to stay above .500.
While the Tigers are playing some of their best football of the year as the season winds down, conversely, Florida is playing some of their worst, at least defensively.
Fresh off giving up just north of 700 yards of offense to LSU, which included over 600 yards of total offense to Heisman hopeful Jayden Daniels, the Gators will have to try and find a way to slow down the nation's eighth-leading rusher and tenth-leading receiver in Cody Schrader and Luther Burden III, respectively. Schrader has amassed 1,124 yards and 11 touchdowns on 197 carries, while Burden has caught 68 passes for 984 yards and eight scores.
While I believe Florida has found their stride offensively with an efficient Graham Mertz at the helm distributing the ball to weapons Ricky Pearsall, Eugene Wilson III, Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne, I think the defense ultimately lets them down. It is extremely hard to win games when you have to score on every offensive possession, and unless the defense hits its stride in Week 12, it seems like that will be the case again Saturday night.
Because of that, I have the Tigers winning,
Cam Parker (6-4): Missouri 41, Florida 27
Putting it bluntly, Saturday's matchup may be another doozy for the Florida Gators.
After initially starting the season strong, Florida's defense is playing at its worst during its most critical stretch. Since the Gators' homecoming win against Vanderbilt, its opponents have scored at least 39 points.
And now, Florida will face one of the top offenses in the SEC in Missouri. The Tigers have won three of their last four, and looking at shared opponents, they have simply played better than Florida.
They blew out Kentucky, didn't need a fourth-quarter comeback against LSU and played Georgia better than anyone else so far.
Florida struggled to contain Ray Davis in the loss to Kentucky. Now, they'll face Cody Schrader, who has at least 112 yards rushing in four of his last five games. His 1,124 yards rank ninth in the country.
It doesn't get any easier in the passing game. Brady Cook has been an efficient quarterback for the Tigers, and having Luther Burden III, who will likely hit 1,000 yards for the year on Saturday, as your top target makes things much easier.
Considering the Gators' recent struggles defensively, to me, it doesn't matter how efficient Florida's offense plays.
Graham Mertz, Ricky Pearsall, Eugene Wilson III and Trevor Etienne all may have strong performances, but as proven over the last three weeks, it won't be enough.
Missouri will be the victor on Saturday night, and Florida will have to wait to play for bowl eligibility next week against Florida State.
Stay tuned to All Gators for continuous coverage of Florida Gators football, basketball and recruiting. Follow along on social media at @AllGatorsOnFN on Twitter and All Gators on FanNation-Sports Illustrated on Facebook.
Get your Gators football, basketball, baseball and other sporting events tickets from SI Tickets here.
