Gators vs. Volunteers: Picks and Predictions for Week 4
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Billy Napier's first road test as the Florida Gators head coach carries a little extra weight.
Personally, he'll take on a Tennessee Volunteers team that his late father Bill's family has cheered on heavily dating back to before Napier was born. Professionally, the Volunteers are favored to defeat Napier's Gators in what would be UT's first victory over UF since 2016 and the second time in 18 consecutive matchups.
Optimism surrounding the Gators isn't at its peak following a narrow victory over USF a week ago and a loss to Kentucky at home the week before. Florida is viewed as an 11-point underdog to Tennessee, according to the Sports Illustrated Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 62 points.
You can find All Gators' picks and predictions for the matchup below.
Zach Goodall (1-2): Tennessee 28, Florida 24
While I believe the odds are stacked against Florida winning this game, I do think the Gators will cover the spread and not in a backdoor fashion. UF's secondary is one of the few in the SEC that matches up well with the Volunteers' lethal passing offense, although the four-man pass rush is going to have to create consistent pressure to set the defensive backs up for success.
While Tennessee's run defense has fared well this season, Florida's rushing attack is a different kind of test than the ones the Vols have faced previously. I envision Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne each scoring touchdowns for the second week in a row, and although he's yet to accomplish it this season, I think Anthony Richardson will complete his first throwing score of the campaign with the rushing game opening up some passing opportunities.
Still, quarterback Hendon Hooker has this Vols' up-tempo passing game firing on all cylinders. Six wide receivers have scored at least one touchdown through the first three games of the season. Florida has yet to be challenged by such a fast-paced and explosive unit this season, and while the Gators' defense may put up an admirable effort, I'm not sure it will be enough.
Brandon Carroll (2-1): Florida 24, Tennessee 20
Logically, after watching the last two performances, it’s hard to pick the Gators on the road against the No. 11 team in the nation. However, that’s exactly what I’m doing due to the near-ideal matchup the Vols present Florida.
With Tennessee liking to operate a fast-paced style of offense, Josh Heupel’s attack is lethal to any team that attempts to fight fire with fire. Averaging over 50 points per game and ranking top five in both total offense and passing offense, the Vols are a dynamic scoring team that can only be stymied by limiting their opportunities.
Luckily for Florida, their strengths align with what can hurt Tennessee.
As a stout rushing team, led by the three-headed monster of Montrell Johnson, Trevor Etienne and Nay’Quan Wright and complemented by quarterback Anthony Richardson, Florida has the blueprint to play keep away from the Volunteers.
The Gators will be able to stay within their game plan, rushing the ball in abundance to control the clock offensively while keeping the defense fresh for Tennessee's up-tempo offense. They'll rush the ball upwards of 60% of their offensive plays in this game with each of the ball carriers earning double-digit attempts for the first time this season.
Plus, if history is any indication, the better rushing team has walked away victorious in 16 of the last 19 outings. As a result, the Gators' ground game will keep it close until the end before allowing them to squeak out a victory on the road in Neyland Stadium. As a result, Billy Napier will improve to 19-3 in one-score games in his head coaching career.
Conner Clarke (2-1): Tennessee 31, Florida 24
After another subpar performance in week three from the Gators, they head into their first road test of the season. Anthony Richardson has yet to throw a touchdown pass and will be heading into an extremely hostile environment in Knoxville (Tenn.) that has rattled some of the better QBs in college football over the course of its storied history.
While Florida’s run game has looked to be the strength of the offense, we haven’t seen them lean on it the way many including myself have called for. The Gators absolutely must do that this week if they want to have a chance against an explosive Volunteer passing attack. Tennessee has a high-tempo, spread offense that can put up points in a hurry. The best way to defend that is to sustain drives: Run the dang ball.
Florida’s defense has been a mixed bag this year, looking solid against Kentucky but struggling to stop the run against both Utah and South Florida. If Tennessee is able to get the tempo rolling, the lack of depth is sure to show in Rocky Top. Hendon Hooker is off to a great start this season for the undefeated Vols and has yet to throw an interception this year, something the Florida defense has forced three times over the last two games.
If there was ever a time for Richardson to break out of his slump and shine as he did against Utah, this Saturday is it. With that being said, I just haven’t seen the consistency from this team to be able to stay patient with the running game, get off the field on defense, and for Richardson to be able to make the throws needed to sustain drives and keep Josh Heupel’s explosive offense off the field. For those reasons, I’m going with the Vols.
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