Florida Gators vs. UCF Knights: Gasparilla Bowl Picks and Predictions

The battle for in-state bragging rights (and not much more), the Florida Gators and UCF Knights will meet in Thursday evening's Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl at 7 P.M. ET.

A tough game to forecast given its nature - Florida is the more talented team, but UCF is motivated to take on Power 5 competition and UF is in the midst of a coaching change - the AllGators staff did its best to predict the outcome below.

Zach Goodall (9-3): Florida 28, UCF 20

I'll be honest, when this game was first rumored and then confirmed while Florida was in the process of a head coaching change, I was pretty convinced that UCF would win the game with relative ease. The Knights haven't been perfect, but they've certainly been better and more competent than the Gators this year.

But I've since seen Florida take this game seriously, motivated to send its seniors and current coaching staff out with a victory. Interim head coach Greg Knox, in particular, could use a victory as he dreams of earning a permanent head coaching gig elsewhere after his time at Florida comes to an end. He's been perfect in the interim role thus far, owning a perfect, 2-0 record in the position during his time with UF and Mississippi State.

And, keep in mind, Florida is the more talented team. There is a talent gap between these rosters considering their recruiting prowesses, one program being from the SEC and the other from the American Conference. Pair these factors together, and I'm now a believer that the Gators will finish the season with a winning record, impressing new head coach Billy Napier on Thursday night as he will be in attendance to watch - but not coach - the game.

Demetrius Harvey (7-5): Florida 35, UCF 21

It's tough to predict what a team coming off of its worst season in four years, coupled with a complete change in coaching staff, could do in a bowl game against a hungry team that just wanted a shot to compete against them for years now.

The Gators have a lot to play for, but at the same time have been marred with distractions from all directions, including during the week(s) leading up to this contest, juggling two coaching staffs. Still, with a roster that is nearly completely intact, coupled with some renewed energy to go around the building, Florida is plenty motivated in its own right.

Florida will not have redshirt freshman QB Anthony Richardson, no, he was ruled out quickly following knee surgery that was necessary after playing on an injury all season. But, Florida will have its fourth-year player in Emory Jones, who has decided to transfer after one final game with the Gators, something that will show just how motivated he truly is.

The expectations for this game should be easy, the Gators should be able to pull off a near clean-sweep of the teams in Florida. They've defeated every Florida-based team they've played over the past three years and even a UCF team led by former Auburn HC Gus Malzahn should not be able to get in their way.

Likely to rely on RB Dameon Pierce for the contest, Florida will have the advantage in the run game, able to pick up tough yards on the ground offensively, while being able to stop UCF RB Johnny Richardson.

This game has the makings of something that will give Florida fans some hope leading into next season, and nothing short of those expectations ought to be realized.

Brandon Carroll (9-3): Florida 28, UCF 24

In the Florida Gators' last contest of the 2022 season, they face off against a fellow underperforming in-state team.

Offensively, Florida will lean heavily on senior running back Dameon Pierce, who will be toting the rock with a purpose as it’s his last chance to put together in-game tape for the NFL Draft. He will have a big day taking the pressure off of quarterback Emory Jones — who looks to transfer following the game — against an aggressive Knights defense.

The Gators defense has seen an uptick in production with the emergence of Ty'Ron Hopper anchoring down the second level from his linebacker spot. Florida continues to show improvement in that regard, halting the UCF rushing attack early on and forcing Mikey Keene to put the ball in the air.

All in all, as we’ve seen all year, I think Florida is prone to self-inflicted wounds at points in this game. However, being the last time the unit will play together — and against a team they’re largely familiar with — the energy and enthusiasm will be up.

This has the possibility to be an eventful game, despite the occasional mistakes that will show why both of these teams have fallen from their prominent spots atop their conferences.

Florida walks away from the 2021 Gasparilla Bowl with a slim victory over the Knights, 28-24.

Conner Clarke: UCF 28, Florida 24

I don’t expect this to be a high-scoring game as both team's offenses lack explosiveness. However, when Florida has been most successful this year they have leaned on the running game and on the backs of Dameon Pierce, Malik Davis and Nay’Quan Wright. With Wright being out due to an injury and the new staff wanting to see some of the younger guys get some playing time, I expect Demarkcus Bowman to step in and fill the void that Wright has left. Pierce likely will and should get the lion’s share of the carries but I fully expect the staff to continue the running back rotation that we have seen all year. When the Gators get into trouble is when they start to get pass-happy. That approach has led to more turnovers than touchdowns this year.

UCF boasts a solid defense that has been a bit of bend-but-don’t-break and has thrived off forcing turnovers, something that Florida QB Emory Jones has been pretty bad with this season. Florida's defense has really struggled to stop the run on multiple occasions this season and it's worth noting that the Gators will be without their best defensive lineman in Zachary Carter, who is sitting out the game to prepare for the NFL Draft.

The Knights offense plays right into the weak point of Florida’s defense as they want to run the ball right at you. The Knights also return their power back, Isaiah Bowser, for this game after missing a good portion of the season with an injury. If he is able to get things going on the ground early, the Gators defense could struggle to get off the field.

One thing I question going into this game is Florida’s motivation. They are coming off a disappointing 6-6 season with a staff that will no longer be employed after the conclusion of this game. The Gators have only practiced a handful of times for the game, which doesn’t lead me to believe that there is a lot of buy-in for this matchup. UCF, on the other hand, will come into the game fired up and with something to prove. They have been waiting for and wanting this game for a long time, so they will treat it like it’s their Super Bowl. And because of that, I think the Knights win.

Ethan Budowsky (8-3): N/A

Did not submit a pick for Florida vs. Samford

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