Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Does Kadarius Toney Have the Film to Declare for the NFL Draft?
Following Florida's 2019 Orange Bowl victory over Virginia, it became clear that several players had huge decisions ahead of them: Whether to return to school in 2020 or enter the NFL Draft.
However, one player who made it clear that he is weighing his options, which came as a bit of a surprise, was wide receiver Kadarius Toney.
Toney, 5-11, 194 lbs., is listed as an athlete on Florida's roster, but has spent the past two seasons making a transition to wide receiver full-time in Dan Mullen's offense.
We'll cover this more in a bit, but while he's made the transition, Toney has struggled with route-running growth and the little things at WR, but is well known for his agility and ability to make plays.
The wide receiver missed six games for Florida this season with a shoulder, and only saw 22 total touches when he was on the field - 12 rushes, 10 receptions.
But while Toney missed half of 2019 with the shoulder injury, posted limited touches given the injury, and has yet to emerge as a true receiver, there's a reason Toney would receive NFL interest - his 11.5 yards per touch in 2019 and 10.6 yards per touch on 97 opportunities over the past three years.
His explosiveness is rare. And the NFL needs it.
When speaking with the media after the Orange Bowl, Toney appeared confident that he'd hear his name called should he enter the draft.
"The NFL, they don't look at injuries when they do the draft," Toney said. "I feel like I [have enough tape to be drafted]."
The beginning of that statement is a bit misleading. Of course, NFL teams look at injuries during the draft process. Teams are investing assets into the players they select - injuries can drastically alter your draft slot.
Just look at former Gators offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor, who played with Toney just last season. Taylor was widely projected to be a top 10 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, but mysteriously fell to the second round on draft night.
The day before, 40+ year NFL beat writer and now a draft analyst for The Athletic, Bob McGinn, posted his annual mock draft, with Taylor falling to the No. 29 pick over rumored concerns regarding a previous knee injury.
Taylor was selected 35th overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars. According to OverTheCap.com., that fall cost Taylor at least as $11.5 million in contract value from what he would have earned as a top 10 pick.
Toney's shoulder injury shouldn't have long-term implications, but it's definitely going to be brought up if and when he eventually interviews with NFL teams in the draft process - whether that's this year or next.
However, what about Toney acknowledging his tape? Do his 97 career touches and 10.6 yards per touch get the job done for the NFL?
Let's take a look at Toney's tape to assess his statement, and judge if he's shown enough to declare early.
Film Room
This is the type of film that would get Kadarius Toney drafted. Given his lack of a route tree, Toney has been often utilized on specifically screens and swings passes in order to allow him to create yards on his own after the catch.
According to Pro Football Focus, Toney has tallied 33 receptions on 34 targets (of his 66 total) behind the line of scrimmage during his career at UF, recording 318 yards and two touchdowns. An interesting note, though: PFF tallies yardage based on the catch point, and considering these receptions came from behind the line, Toney is down for 421 yards after the catch on such passes.
The play above comes from Florida's first score of the 2019 season. Toney motions out right and gets put in a stack position by the time the ball is snapped and thrown, in order to catch the ball with adequate blocking ahead of him.
The rest need not be explained: Toney is called a "Human Joystick" for good reason.
Here, Toney serves as a check-down option on the swing pass, and quarterback Kyle Trask utilizes it. Toney makes the reception about three-four yards behind the line of scrimmage, and totally jukes out to enclosing defenders before even making his way across the line.
Toney's second juke move doesn't even seem natural - his knee came as close to the turf without touching it as possible, and he got away. His ability to bend and contort his body to avoid contact and make defenders miss in the open field is astonishing.
This really should have been a tackle for loss. Instead, Toney extends the play into a gain of about eight yards.
The above jet sweep resulted in a reported torn ACL for Florida State safety Hamsah Nasirildeen, who Toney juked at the numbers behind the line of scrimmage right before turning upfield.
It took seven defenders making contact over this 47 yard gain to bring Toney down.
But, it seems for every huge play that Toney appears to make out of nothing at the line, there are also plays like this.
Far too often, Toney relies upon his agility to make plays rather than follow the course of the play call. Toney is presented with a favorable one-on-one in the open field about four yards downfield with the outside cornerback, after tight ends Kyle Pitts and Lucas Krull open a rather large gap for him to climb upfield.
Rather, Toney attempts to move back inside on a cut that was too sharp, even for his standards. He slips, and gets tackled while trying to spin himself out of contact.
If these types of plays are happening against teams like UT-Martin, there is room for concern.
Toney catches a screen pass in a four-wide receiver set, which UT-Martin defends pre-snap with two coverage players near the line and another two beyond the first-down marker.
Even with the cornerback creating some pressure through his block, Toney needs to take this upfield. He's got a +1 blocking advantage and is more than agile enough to have found a way north for a first down, or at least close to it.
Instead, he runs nearly 40 yards - sideline-to-sideline - before even crossing the line of scrimmage, and the play goes nowhere.
Against NFL talent, there will be no excuses for Toney to attempt this. The defensive lineman who made contact with Toney 13 yards behind the line of scrimmage likely would have completed a tackle, if he were NFL-caliber. The speed will be drastically different in the box at the NFL level - Toney can't rely on his agility to break play calls, especially when they originally set him up for success.
Now, while Toney has struggled to build a route tree, he has flashed the ability to make plays out wide beyond screens. It hasn't happened often, but there have been instances.
Above, on an underneath crossing route on third down, Toney maintains solid separation from the snap until the catch and concentrates to bring this window-throw in before falling out of bounds.
Once again, Toney works the boundary to make an impressive grab. The line outside receiver on the weak side of the formation, Toney actually beats man coverage here by getting into the cornerback's blind spot after he flips his hips.
Franks makes a nice throw down the sideline once Toney has gotten the cornerback to buy in vertically. Toney quickly rotates when he is out of the cornerback's vision, and makes an adjustment to haul this pass in.
NFL teams aren't likely to use Toney as a vertical receiver often. He only brought in seven receptions on 18 targets of 10+ air yards during his time at Florida.
However, his flashes on the vertical stem could at least earn him the occasional opportunity.
Occasionally, Toney would return kicks at Florida as well. Though he's only taken eight kick returns, he's averaged 21 yards per return and demonstrated the same open-field elusiveness in doing so as he has on offense.
NFL teams will, at least, give him a shot as a returner on top of what he provides to an offense.
Final Thoughts
In my opinion, Toney should absolutely return to Florida for his senior season. With Florida set to lose four receivers to graduation, Toney has an opportunity to drastically improve his production and continue developing in a bigger role in 2020.
Sure, he has intriguing tape that will grasp the NFL's attention. Hell, I think he would get drafted this year - even in such a deep wide receiver class.
But that's because I think he'd get drafted as a running back.
No, Toney wouldn't be selected high and certainly wouldn't be viewed as a starting-caliber running back out of the gate. But his elusiveness, experience running the ball (8.9 yards per carry on 47 opportunities), and ability to catch the ball out of the backfield would translate to an offense that runs a running back-by-committee rather seamlessly.
And if you look at the Carolina Panthers, they get creative with their RB committee. Starting RB Christian McCaffrey often lines up as a receiver - which led to the third-ever 1000 yard rushing and 1000 yard receiving season for an RB in NFL history this past season.
The Panthers do the same with WR Curtis Samuel, who played RB in college for Ohio State. While Samuel has developed into a solid receiver over three years, he's also tallied 31 carries for 278 yards and three scores.
Teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, and San Francisco 49ers would make a ton of sense for Toney's services as a running back.
Meanwhile, while the wide receiver class is historically talented and deep, the running back class is really only top-heavy with starting-caliber backs. When Day 3 of the draft gets rolling, most teams will be adding committee and change-of-pace backs.
Kadarius Toney could be the ideal committee back for a team looking for a playmaker out of the backfield. While his confidence in possibly being drafted might leave you confused at first, there's definitely a path for Toney to carve out a role in the NFL should he declare this year.
But at the end of the day, the smartest decision would be to prove why he belongs in the NFL, in a final season at Florida.
