FSU Basketball Roster Update: Who’s Staying, Who’s Going, and What Do They Need?
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Florida State’s season ended with a 92-67 loss to North Carolina in the ACC Tournament on Thursday. Now comes the busiest part of the offseason, the portal season, and I’ll do my best to predict who’s still going to be on this roster next year, barring a coaching change I'm not expecting that to happen, as of now).
Out of Eligibility
Darin Green Jr. and Josh Nickelberry are the only two players who have completely exhausted their eligibility. Green Jr. had moments throughout his career, but I thought he was too relied on for the player he was and struggled in the ACC Tournament. Nickelberry didn’t provide much this season and I look for Florida State to improve on that scholarship.
Need a Waiver
Jaylan Gainey could potentially get an additional year of eligibility since the Ivy League sat out the 2020-21 season due to COVID precautions, but the players still lost a year. He’s already used a medical redshirt for his ACL tear from before the 2022-23 season, which was already his additional COVID year. He reportedly needs another knee surgery this offseason to clean it up. I think it’d be best for Florida State to move on, as he’s very clearly not the same player he was before the injury, understandably. I’m not even sure how likely that waiver would be.
Cam’Ron Fletcher’s waiver possibility is much more likely. The waiver is granted if a player participates in 10 or fewer games in a season before a season-ending injury. Fletcher played in 10 games in the 2022-23 season and 7 games this season. He could absolutely get the waiver.
The bigger question becomes- is it in Fletcher’s or FSU’s best interests to explore that waiver? I’m not so sure it is. He’s had two season-ending injuries on the same knee in less than a year and probably won’t be 100% until January 2025. Florida State doesn’t have the time to wait on that, they have to win and win soon. And what does 100% look like for him? 75% of the player he used to be? That’s a big risk for a lot of programs to take and it may be best for him and his body to focus on getting to 100% for life after basketball and not worrying about trying to get back on the court as soon as possible.
Do Whatever It Takes To Make Sure They’re Back
Jamir Watkins is a very easy candidate for this. Whatever he wants in NIL, he deserves. Watkins was the best player on the team by a wide margin and will have professional opportunities, but FSU has to hope he chooses to come back to Tallahassee. You can build a good team around him, but I think he’ll be tough to retain. As of this moment, I’d lean towards him going pro, with him at least keeping the option open to return to school initially.
Taylor Bol Bowen is the other candidate for this list. The sky is the limit for him and his potential and he made some big plays throughout the season. His overall game still needs improvement, but he’s closer to realizing his potential than you’d think. It wouldn’t be a shock at all to me to see him start next season as FSU’s 4.
Florida State Would Prefer Them To Be Back, But We’ll See
Jalen Warley has become a beloved figure in the locker room as the guy who’s been in the program the longest and has a lot of favor with the coaching staff. As much favor as he’s gotten, Florida State would like to see more offensive production from their starting point guard. He made a ton of progress this year, shooting 79.3% from the free throw line from January 1st on, and even started to attempt some 3s towards the end of the season. If he continues that progress throughout the offseason, he could become a steady shooter. If Trent Forrest could do it, so can Warley.
Cam Corhen got better throughout the season, even if he started the season sloppy. His free throw shooting regressed this season and he didn’t want to take as many jump shots as he did last season, but he’s still an extremely talented offensive big man. Coach Hamilton wants to bring in a few 7-footers this offseason, though. If he brings 2 or 3 that are ready to play, what does that mean for Corhen? I know he was initially recruited to be a 4 and play on the perimeter, but I don’t think he really fits that. He’s a center; someone who can play that Mfiondu Kabengele role.
I Have No Idea
Baba Miller is a total mystery to me right now. I don’t think there’s any result for him this offseason that would surprise me, whether it’s him staying, transferring, going back overseas, or trying his luck in the NBA. Let’s just diagnose each potential option. There’s been a clear disconnect between him and the coaching staff on how he wants to play and how the staff wants him to play. The skill set is there for what Florida State wants their bigger forwards to be, but he wants to play as a guard.
Because of that skill set, I could see Miller trying his luck at another school where he could potentially see a more prominent role. He could also go back overseas, as a native of Spain, where his game is more naturally suited. He looked much more comfortable in the FIBA U19 Tournament this past summer and could return to that play style. Or he could bet on his traits and try his luck in the weakest NBA Draft class in over a decade. The Indiana Pacers, Boston Celtics, San Antonio Spurs, Portland Trailblazers, and Memphis Grizzlies all have multiple second-round picks as we stand right now, what’s to stop one of them from saying “We think we can develop him” late in the draft? I genuinely don’t have a feeling one way or another on this one.
Chandler Jackson played well in February but also had some off-court situations that could give the staff some questions about his maturity. I’m a big fan of his game and he had some big moments this season. He also saw wavering consistency in playing time that may want him to find an opportunity with a bigger role and more consistent playing time, but I’m so high on his potential that I’d hope he’d be back. With that being said, it could go either way, but I’m going to say he’s likely leaving.
On To Newer Ventures
Primo Spears just doesn’t fit culturally. He’s a smaller Caleb Mills and I didn’t love the take when it first started being rumored. There’s a reason he’s been at three schools in three years and is likely on his way to a fourth.
I thought the situation in February was really strange, where he intentionally fouled out at Virginia Tech with a minute and a half left on an 89% free throw shooter, was sat the entire second half against Duke, and then sat the entirety of the ensuing Boston College game. Then you factor in his actual on-court production; he shot a whopping 39% from the floor and had a 1:1 assist-to-turnover ratio.
Spears had his moments here and there; I thought he played well against NC State with his playmaking and ability to score off the dribble, but those moments were few and far between. He’d be better off returning to the Atlantic-10 Conference, in my opinion, which is where he started his career and closer to home.
De’Ante Green started the season off strong with four consecutive games scoring in double figures in the last few games of November and into December. Once Cam Corhen returned from his toe injury and started playing well down the stretch, Green started seeing less and less playing time. Even while Green was still starting throughout conference play, he’d still be playing minutes in the single digits. He was finally taken out of the starting lineup against Boston College in favor of Corhen and the offense has more or less benefitted since. I think the biggest writing on the wall was on Senior Day, 16 different players checked in for Florida State and De’Ante Green wasn’t one of them, and he played just 42 total minutes in FSU’s last 11 games. It’s time for both sides to move on.
Tom House is a solid shooter, but he couldn’t see consistent playing time on a team that desperately needed perimeter shooting. He’s appeared in 22 games this season, averaging just 3.7 MPG, and hasn’t played more than 7 minutes in a game since the first three games of the year, which were all blowouts. There will be plenty of shooters available on the transfer market this offseason that have ACC-level size and ball-handling ability. I like House and think he could end up being a solid contributor for a Toledo-level team, but he’s just not built for major conference basketball.
Where Will the Roster Stand and What Do They Need?
Based on things I’ve heard, I believe the only holdovers will be Jalen Warley, Taylor Bol Bowen, and Cam Corhen. Let’s just add Baba Miller for now to give them 4 returners, since I believe that they end up around 4 or 5 returning players.
Their only current high school signee is AJ Swinton out of Arlington, Virginia. Swinton is a 6’6” wing with a 7-foot wingspan, so your classic Leonard Hamilton project on the wings. His jump shot has developed well and is a good straight-line driver who can finish with authority. That jumper will likely still need improvement at the college level, as will his ball-handling, but I like his potential at FSU.
With Swinton, that would put Florida State, in this hypothetical scenario, at 5 players on the roster and 8 spots to fill. Sources have told me that Coach Hamilton is planning on taking 2 or 3 more high school recruits and filling the rest out with the transfer portal. I think one of those high school prospects would be a 7-footer that can develop that we haven’t heard about yet.
One high school player to keep an eye on is point guard Daquan Davis, currently playing in the Overtime Elite circuit. He’s set to announce his decision between Georgia Tech and Florida State on March 20th, visited campus for the Duke game in February, and then was at Georgia Tech in March when Florida State came to Atlanta. I feel good about Florida State’s chances in that recruitment.
Davis would be the smallest guard FSU has had since David Nichols was a graduate transfer in the 2018-19 season, hinting further towards a potential defensive scheme change, but is dynamic offensively. At a listed 6’1” (and I think he’s shorter than that), Davis averaged 17.9 PPG, 5.8 APG, 6.1 RPG, and 1.6 SPG while shooting 35.4% from 3 this season. In the OTE playoffs, those numbers took a jump to 21.3 PPG, 7.3 APG, and 6.0 RPG while shooting 44% from 3. It’s been a long time since FSU has had an off-the-dribble scoring threat like Davis has the potential to be.
Preferably, Florida State doesn’t take any more than that: Swinton, Davis, and a potential 7-footer. I believe that the days of winning with freshmen in college basketball are over and loading up on transfers is the best way to go. If we use those, that puts FSU at 7 players, with six transfers to go get.
Even with potentially Warley and Davis in the fold, I’d like to add one more guard that can handle the ball. One name to potentially keep an eye on if he were to enter the transfer portal is Auburn’s Tre Donaldson, a Tallahassee native. I think he’d be a perfect guard in this offense and would give the ‘Noles three quality lead guards that they can rotate around.
Outside of that, they need a few starting-caliber wings; guys that can play the 2 or the 3 (and potentially even the 4 in small-ball lineups). I’d take four of those, but they need to be high-level shooters, overall shot-creators, and defenders.
Florida State has been hindered by a lack of spacing and shooting in recent years. Since the start of the 2021-22 season, only three main contributors have shot over 36% from 3 in a season: John Butler (left after one season), Cam’Ron Fletcher, and Darin Green Jr. While Green has more or less been a quality shooter, he’s been limited on the defensive end and trying to create shots for himself off the dribble. His handle isn’t tight enough to consistently get to the basket, something you have to do in FSU’s offense. They’ve also not been able to consistently keep the ball in front of them on defense, constantly allowing breakdowns. That needs to be shored up.
With that potential last spot, they should go out and find a true defensive-minded 7-footer, like we’re used to seeing from this program. If FSU were to go back to that 2016-2019 defense, having an athletic and menacing shot blocker in the paint is one of the bigger keys to that defense.
If it all goes like this, that would give you a potential rotation of:
1: Jalen Warley, Tre Donaldson, Daquan Davis
2: Transfer, Transfer
3: Transfer, Transfer, AJ Swinton
4: Baba Miller, Taylor Bol Bowen
5: Cam Corhen, 7-foot Transfer, 7-foot Recruit
If all or most of those transfers can contribute, that becomes a good team that could make the tournament. A LOT of ifs and hitting on the right pieces in the portal, but there’s at least a pathway to becoming a good team in this day and age of college basketball, especially if Jamir Watkins could be convinced to come back for one more season. That would be my ideal offseason.
READ MORE: Jordan Travis Endorses Former Five-Star Prospect After First Season With FSU Football
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