Game Preview: Florida State at Louisville
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Florida State is trying to recover after being demolished by NC State, nothing to get back on track like playing the worst team in the conference. Louisville just got its first ACC win of the season and first win since the calendar turned to 2023 this past Wednesday against Georgia Tech at home, and are looking for revenge after FSU beat them by double digits earlier in the season.
This game will be at 2pm on ESPN2, live from the KFC YUM! Center in Louisville, KY.
Louisville Cardinals Breakdown
The Cards are coming off of their first ACC win over the season, getting a 68-58 win over fellow bottom-feeder Georgia Tech. It was the defense that got them over the top, holding GT to 30% from the floor, 26% from 3, and out-rebounding them 44-32, but it was by no means a dominant win. Georgia Tech snagged 12 offensive rebounds, and Louisville turned it over 14 times to GT’s 5. Each team made 7 3s, Georgia Tech just took a lot more of them.
Jae’Lyn Withers is coming off of one of his better games of the season with 19 points, 13 rebounds, and 2 steals, while shooting 7/9 from the free throw line and 4/8 from the floor, all of his makes coming from 3. He’s a solid versatile player, but can sometimes struggle against bigger teams.
El Ellis is still the engine of this broken-down offense, they go as he goes. He’s the only player averaging double-digit points with 17.0, but turns it over more than 4 times per game and shoots 38% from the floor. You can’t let him get easy looks, so FSU will make life as difficult as possible for him.
Mike James and Withers are the two biggest threats from 3, other than that, there’s really nothing from this team that scares me. Hopefully, FSU doesn’t play down to their level.
Florida State Seminoles Breakdown
The faster FSU moves on from the last game against NC State, the better. It was a horrid showing on all fronts; offense wasn’t hitting shots, defense couldn’t keep NCSU’s guards in check, the rebounding battle was a hopeless effort… just very little positive to take away from a game like that. Playing a team they’ve already beaten once should help with confidence. After two tough wins on the road at Notre Dame and Pitt, the ‘Noles have fallen completely flat on their face these last three games. Miami and NC State were never even close, while Clemson should’ve been a win that they let slip through their hands.
Part of FSU’s issue recently is they’ve been getting off to horrible starts in games. These are the scores after the first four minutes in each of the last four games: NC State 17-4 (score would balloon up to 30-4), Clemson 11-0, Miami 19-4, Pittsburgh 13-5. They were able to respond against Pitt and Clemson, while it was all she wrote for NC State and Miami once those leads were opened up. FSU just can’t continuously put itself in holes like this and expect to be successful.
FSU has to communicate better defensively. Part of what I noticed sitting courtside at NC State was there was zero communication besides the occasional point. But no one is talking, and you can’t win basketball being quiet. Makes me wonder how much some of these guys really care, honestly.
Injury Report
Jaylan Gainey is out for the season with an ACL injury.
Cam’Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury.
Naheem McLeod has missed the last two games with an illness and didn’t travel to NC State. He’s set to travel, we’ll see how much he plays.
Jeremiah Bembry is expected to sit out the whole season.
Matthew Cleveland and Caleb Mills both were hobbled a little bit against NC State, we’ll see how they perform in this one.
Brandon Huntley-Hatfield has been out since January 11 with a foot injury, and he’s doubtful to play against FSU, though is nearing a return.
Projected Starters
Louisville
G: Ell Ellis
G: Mike James
F: JJ Traynor
F: Jae’Lyn Withers
F: Sydney Curry
Florida State
G: Jalen Warley
G: Caleb Mills
G: Darin Green Jr
F: Matthew Cleveland
F: Cameron Corhen
Keys to the Game
Handle The Pressure
Louisville started to get back in the game in Tallahassee by applying pressure and forcing bad shots and turnovers, I’m expecting more of that in this game, especially with the way FSU looked against pressure against NC State. They should be trapping, blitzing, double-teaming… doing whatever it takes to get FSU out of its rhythm. If they don’t, it’s honestly just bad coaching on Louisville’s part.
3-Point Battle
Both of these teams are pretty horrific at defending the 3, so whichever team can take advantage and hit more shots, and have active hands on the perimeter is going to have the best chance at this one.
Head of the Snake: El Ellis
Last time out between these teams, Ellis was the only one that could get any sort of flow going offensively with 15 points and 4 assists, but it came on 17 shots and with 5 turnovers. If FSU can keep him with those kinds of shot attempts and turnovers while limiting his efficiency, it’s hard for Louisville’s offense to get going.
Game Prediction
Florida State is favored by 3 points with an over/under of 143.5.
I’m kind of expecting a low-scoring battle from two teams with low offensive chemistry that have played each other once already. If FSU can’t win this road game with me in attendance, I’m not sure I’ll ever see another road win.
FSU 72 Louisville 64
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