Game Preview: Florida State at Miami

We’re almost done, the pain is almost over. Florida State has three games left in the regular season, then how many ever games they play in the ACC Tournament. They’ve had a week off to get a little bit of rest, not that it particularly matters. Starting this stretch will be a road game at Miami, a team who beat Florida State by 23 (and it never even felt that close) a month ago in Tallahassee. This could be an ugly one.

This game will be at 4 pm on ESPN2, live from the Watsco Center in Coral Gables, Florida.

Miami Hurricanes Breakdown

Miami has really stepped it up in the last month. They’re currently on a 7-game winning streak, coming by an average of 9.4 PPG. Only the game at Clemson has been below 7 points. They’ve beaten a lot of good teams, and beaten them by healthy margins, so it makes sense they’re ranked 13th in the country and have a half-game lead over Virginia and Pitt for 1st in the ACC.

Nijel Pack has been on an absolute heater since the start of the FSU game, shooting 46.6% from 3 on more than six attempts per game. He can probably thank FSU for the open looks and allowing him to get hot that’s carried him this last month, and it’s pretty impressive he’s only the 4th leading scorer on this team.

Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller continue to have huge impacts on this team, combining to average 31.1 PPG in conference play, some of the toughest perimeter players in the conference to guard. Throw that in with Norchad Omier who can control the paint despite being undersized at 6’7” and a sharpshooter in Pack and you’ve got a hard offense to guard.

The defense is the only thing keeping this team from being elite, ranking 112th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency. It’ll matter in March, it shouldn’t matter too much in this particular game.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown

The Miami game a month ago was the beginning of the end for Florida State; any momentum they may have had was sucked out of the building when Miami started the game off on a 19-4 run and never looked back. FSU has only won once since then, a 3-point win over Louisville, and have been outscored 668-556 since the start of the Miami game, an average of 14 points per game. It’s not been good basketball to say the least, as evidenced by the article I put out Thursday, breaking down what’s gone wrong and needs to change.

I wouldn’t be totally surprised to see Matthew Cleveland sit out the rest of the season. He’s done all he can, and the staff may want to see what the rest of these guys can do with more opportunity. So far, it hasn’t been much, but it’s more of a realization they need to revamp the roster.

Luckily, college basketball can have as quick of a turnaround as any college sport, since individual athletes have more impact on basketball than any other team sport. These next two weeks, I think, will be used to see who is worth having on this team next season.

Injury Report

Matthew Cleveland is questionable in this game with back spasms. He’s missed the last two games.

Jaylan Gainey is out for the season with an ACL injury.

Cam’Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury.

Jeremiah Bembry is expected to sit out the whole season.

Projected Starters

Miami

G: Nijel Pack

G: Isaiah Wong

G: Wooga Poplar

G: Jordan Miller

F: Norchad Omier

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Caleb Mills

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Baba Miller

F: Cameron Corhen

Keys to the Game

Do the Exact Opposite of What Happened Last Time

Clearly, whatever FSU was doing last time was not working. No one scored more than 12 points for FSU, had just 12 assists on 26 made shots, were just 3/22 from 3, and only 8/13 from the free throw line. Meanwhile, Miami shot 11/22 from 3, and 57% from the floor. Quite literally the only thing FSU did well was force Miami into 17 turnovers on 11 steals. FSU is going to need to do a better job of turning the steaks into points.

Offensive Glass

Miami only had 7 offensive rebounds in the first matchup, but Omier seemed to grab them in the biggest spots. FSU will need to keep off of the glass if they want to stay competitive in this one.

Contain the Role Players

In the first game a month ago, Wooga Poplar had 14 points, 10 of them coming in the first few minutes. Anthony Walker and Harlond Beverly combined for 10 points. It’s hard enough to defend their main players, but if their role players are thriving, this is a really hard team to beat.

Game Prediction

Miami is favored by 14.5 points with an over/under of 154.5.

I’d be shocked if this is even a competitive game. Miami is a top-15 team in the country looking to solidify its resume and has already dominated this Florida State team once, and that was with a healthy Matthew Cleveland. This one will probably be ugly.

Miami 85 FSU 67

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