Game Preview: Florida State Seminoles vs. Kennesaw State Owls
Basketball season is finally here! After a dreadful 2022-23 campaign for Leonard Hamilton and his team, Florida State is looking forward to starting fresh and getting off to a better start than last season's 1-9 start.
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Their first test is a Kennesaw State team that won 26 games and the Atlantic Sun Conference last season and came within a few points of upsetting 3-seeded Xavier in the Round of 64 in the NCAA Tournament. After that success, head coach Amir Abdur-Rahim left for USF, with three of his top six scorers following him to Tampa, and another one graduating. There's not much-returning production, but they do bring back the A-SUN Tournament MVP in Terrell Burden. Despite all of the change, they're still projected to finish in the top 2-4 of the A-SUN.
This game will be at 6 pm on ACCNX/ESPN+, live from the Donald L. Tucker Civic Center in Tallahassee, Florida. For those in town early for the football game against Miami, show up and support the basketball team as well!
Kennesaw State Owls Breakdown
The Owls are in their first season under new head coach Antoine Pettway, a former Alabama assistant of 15 seasons. It's his first time being a head coach, and it's clear to see what his offensive principles are: play fast, shoot 3s, crash the glass. It's hard to take too much away from their first game, an absolute snoozer against Oakwood University, a team that participates in the United States Collegiate Athletic Association, who was on their 4th game in 5 days and played 17 different players in this game. Half of Oakwood's shots in the first half didn't even draw iron, and it was a clear mismatch from the get-go.
Still, it was an 82-possession game, and you could tell Kennesaw State was trying to push the tempo, shooting often within the first 10-12 seconds of the shot clock. As soon as a shot went up, 2 or 3 players were crashing the glass, leading to 17 offensive rebounds and 16 second-chance points. They also shot 12/33 from 3, which accounted for 42.8% of all of their shots taken, while holding Oakwood to just 2/24 from 3 (again, not a good basketball team). The Owls do seem to be a little loose with the basketball, so I'm expecting heavy ball pressure from Florida State to try and get some steals.
Their main returning pieces are Terrell Burden, Demond Robinson, Simeon Cottle, and Quincy Ademokoyo. Burden averaged 13.5 PPG last season on his way to being named A-SUN Tournament MVP. He's a real scoring threat, though he's dealing with some sort of lower leg injury and may come off the bench in a limited role as he did against Oakwood. Robinson is a consistent threat for 10 points and 7 rebounds, and he's someone Florida State is going to have to keep off of the glass. Cottle is a lightning-quick guard and is not afraid to shoot. Ademokoyo is more of your Swiss army knife, do-it-all kind of player on the wing.
They also brought in a number of transfers: Jusaun Holt from Georgia (still awaiting his waiver decision from the NCAA), Rongie Gordon from UAB, and Jamel King from West Virginia. None of these transfers were particularly productive at their previous stops, but they have some talent. Frankquon Sherman seems to be in line for a big role as a freshman as well. They've got a lot of bodies that can roll out there and give quality minutes. I'm not the biggest fan of backup big Corey LaRue, and FSU will likely hunt him out anytime he's on the floor as slow-footed as he is.
Florida State Seminoles Breakdown
Well, it can't be worse than it was last season.
9-23 is about as bad as anyone could've expected last year to go, and the staff knew changes had to be made to the locker room and on the court. Out go Matthew Cleveland, Caleb Mills, Naheem McLeod, and Jeremiah Bembry, in come Primo Spears, Jamir Watkins, Josh Nickelberry, and Taylor Bol Bowen.
It's fair to wonder if what they've done to the roster, as well as getting Cam'Ron Fletcher back from injury and Jaylan Gainey should be back soon, as well as internal improvement, is enough for this team to make some noise in a bad ACC. With Spears still awaiting his eligibility decision from the NCAA, I definitely have my concerns about the roster, mainly scoring and rebounding. I went into a lot more detail in my roster preview a few weeks ago if anyone needs a refresher. If you're being optimistic, you can talk yourself into De'Ante Green being a year further removed from his ACL tear, Chandler Jackson being a year removed from his broken thumb, and Cameron Corhen has had another year to develop after being a major breakout surprise last season.
I feel good about Baba Miller and Jamir Watkins having big impacts on this team. Miller regained his confidence playing for Spain in the FIBA U19 Tournament this summer, while Watkins has looked like dynamite in the preseason. If Jalen Warley can take that next step that everyone knows he has in him, then this team could surprise some people.
With that being said, it's a lot of waiting to see it until we believe it with this team. They've got to show they can win these minor games before anyone will start to think they may have some success. FSU lost games to Troy, Stetson, and Siena last year. That doesn't just go away.
Injury Report
Jaylan Gainey is expected to be out until early December as he recovers from his ACL tear last year. Florida State is being extra cautious with him, but they're going to need him against UNC on Dec 2nd at the latest.
Cam'Ron Fletcher is 100% ready to go after his ACL tear last season and played major minutes in both exhibition games.
Chandler Jackson was suspended during the offseason and has missed both exhibition games, but it's not been clarified either way if he'll play Friday night or not.
Primo Spears is still awaiting a decision from the NCAA on whether or not he's eligible, as are many of the two-time transfers. Because the NCAA is a worthless and corrupt lazy organization, there's no telling when FSU may receive clarity on this situation. They'll sit him until they get confirmation, like they have in the exhibition games.
Kennesaw State's Jusaun Holt is still awaiting clarity from the NCAA on whether or not he's eligible as well.
Terrell Burden only played 10 minutes in Kennesaw State's opening game as he works back from some sort of lower leg injury. Supposedly he had a boot on for "Owl Madness," but I'd imagine he plays more in this game.
Projected Starters
Florida State
G: Jalen Warley
G: Darin Green Jr
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Baba Miller
F: Cameron Corhen
Kennesaw State
G: Simeon Cottle
G: Quincy Ademokoya
F: Jamel King
F: Frankquon Sherman
F: Demond Robinson
3 Keys to the Game
Defensive Rebounding
Florida State was a very poor defensive rebounding team last season, allowing an offensive rebound rate of 31.5%, which ranked in the 300s nationally, and it hasn't looked much better in the exhibition games as the 'Noles allowed a total of 23 offensive rebounds to Flagler and Valdosta State. It's times like these when you could really use Jaylan Gainey.
Kennesaw State grabbed 17 offensive rebounds in their first game, leading to 16 second-chance points. They're going to send 2 or 3 players to the offensive glass every shot, so it's imperative the perimeter players are boxing out, and whoever is down low after switches has to really battle with Demond Robinson. If FSU can hold them to 10 offensive rebounds or less, it should do a world of magic.
Creating Chaos
Despite the level of competition, Kennesaw State still turned it over 13 times for a turnover rate of 15.9%. Florida State thrives on turnovers, forcing 47 of them in their two exhibition games. If they can force around 20 or a turnover rate north of 20%, it should make life a lot easier for them.
Winning in Transition
Kennesaw State is going to try to play fast, playing an 82-possession game against Oakwood on Tuesday, and a lot of their shots came in the first 12 seconds of the shot clock, scoring 31 fastbreak points and 24 points off of 14 Oakwood turnovers. Florida State is going to have to make sure someone is back on defense on a shot attempt, and they're going to have to create chaos defensively to get downhill on offense and get easy baskets. If they get beat in transition this game, it'll likely cost them the win.
Game Prediction
Florida State is favored by 12 points, with a projected total of 146.5.
This is going to be a high-possession basketball game if Kennesaw State has its way, and I think Florida State would prefer that. Whether it'll be beneficial or not is yet to be seen. Just going off of last season, this is likely to be a game too close for comfort and I'm hoping Florida State can pull it out in the end, even if I am still slightly concerned about the offense.
Florida State 85 - Kennesaw State 80
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