Game Preview: Florida State Seminoles vs. South Florida Bulls

This team needed a week off. Two double-digit leads in the second half last week both resulted in losses, something that can be very hard to deal with internally. Getting some time to refresh and refocus was key. This will be a good refocus game.

While this isn't the Orange Bowl Classic some fans are looking forward to at the end of the month, it's generally a good experience for Florida State, as they are 9-3 all-time in this event, including 3-0 against teams from the state of Florida. This is the third time they've played USF in this event, winning both of the previous matchups in 2014 and 2019.

Florida State Star QB Jordan Travis Finishes 5th in Heisman Trophy Voting

The Orange Bowl Classic will tip off at 1:30 p.m. EST on the ACC Network, live from the Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise, FL.

South Florida Bulls Breakdown (2-4)

USF is in their first year under head coach Amir Abdur-Rahim, who comes to Tampa after a successful tenure at Kennesaw State, including leading them to the NCAA Tournament and almost upsetting Xavier in the opening round. It was a fun team to watch last year, and three players followed him over from Kennesaw State to Tampa.

It's been a struggle in his first year, though. Losses to Central Michigan (a team FSU beat by 27), Maine, and UMASS, with the latter two coming by double digits, have shown how tough of a roster turnover this job was.

Their biggest struggle is the biggest thing that matters in every level of basketball: they can't put the ball in the basket. They have two players averaging 12+ points per game: Selton Mitchell (12.7 PPG, comes off of the bench) and Chris Youngblood (12.2 PPG). Then it drops to 8.5 PPG with UNF transfer Jose Placer, and no one else higher than 6.5 PPG. Just not a great scoring team; four of their six games have resulted in less than 65 points for them.

There are only six teams in the country shooting a lower percentage from 3 and only 15 teams shooting a lower effective field goal percentage than this Bulls team, and they're about average at getting to the free throw line and taking care of the basketball. In the two games they won, they were at an effective field goal percentage of above 50% (which would be about average nationally). Every other game they've been far below average; 41% against Hofstra, and well into the 30s against Central Michigan, Maine, and UMASS.

USF's defense will be what keeps them in games. It's not the best, but they force turnovers at a high rate, and they can have good games guarding the 3. Their opponent 3PT% of 29.2% is being weighed down by an 0/18 performance by South Carolina State to start the season, otherwise, teams are 33.4% against them. Three teams have shot below 18% against them, and three have been above 42%. No in-between; it's a wide variance.

The biggest concern has been Youngblood's shooting. He was a career 38.7% shooter behind the arc at Kennesaw State but is just 5/26 from 3 to start this season through 6 games. USF is certainly hoping he can turn it around. Even Placer has been above what his mark was at UNF: shooting 33.3% from 3 this year compared to 36.6% last season. Miguel and point guard Jayden Reid are the two with an above-average 3PT% but are making just 2.5 attempts per game.

What they do have is some good free-throw shooters; Youngblood, Miguel, Placer, Kasean Pryor, and Corey Walker are all above 80% on a combined 13 attempts or so per game. They don't get there that often, but they make them when they're there. The same can't be said for the rest of the roster, as Kobe Knox, Sam Hines, Brandon Stroud, and David Ogunleye are all below 60% on about 7 attempts.

It's really a team that tries to get inside when they can, so stopping straight-line drives will be important for Florida State. Reid has helped this offense a lot, despite being 5'10" and 160 pounds, but his playmaking really has been a revelation. It'll be interesting to see if Florida State's size gives him issues.

There's a good chance you'll see them start 7-footer Daniel Tobiloba start the game for them at center, but he averages just 5 minutes played per game. He's pretty much just there to win the jump ball and get out, as he's averaging one foul per 7 minutes played and has only taken 3 shots all year.

They're still working on finding what works best for them offensively, starting a bunch of different lineup combinations, and that's why they haven't had a ton of success so far.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (4-3)

I can only imagine the head state of the team currently, a week after losing two games with double-digit second-half leads and losing Cam'Ron Fletcher to yet another season-ending knee injury Saturday afternoon. Getting a week off should help this team tremendously.

First, my heart breaks for Fletcher. He worked so hard to get back in time for the season this year, was fully cleared by October, and looked to be getting close to full strength again. Now, less than a year after the original injury, he suffered what looked like a very serious injury to the same knee. He announced he'd be out for the year, but neither he nor Florida State has announced what the injury is yet. Fletcher is listed as a senior and could very easily get a medical redshirt, but it'll be curious to see if he applies for it.

On the basketball side, Florida State has to figure out their press offense. Both Georgia and UNC were able to get back into the game starting on the defensive end, forcing Florida State into turnovers and sloppy offensive possessions with full-court presses. UNC broke out this unique 2-2-1 trapping defense, that FSU found some success by pitching ahead to the big from the inbound, who would pitch it off as a guard would take off in a full sprint to get downhill, but they just couldn't get to it consistently. It's not a coincidence that FSU had just 5 turnovers in the first 25 minutes of the game when they took as big of a lead as 14 points, and 7 turnovers when they were outscored over the last 15 minutes by a score of 43-25.

The other Florida State has to massively improve on is defending without fouling. The biggest reason they were able to get the big lead in the first place against UNC is they had just 5 fouls and allowed just 6 free throws in the first half. The second half, 14 fouls led to 25 free throws. Not all of them were really fouls, but you're just not going to get the benefit of the doubt in Chapel Hill. Either way, that's a massive flip of the switch, and FSU simply hasn't been that great at keeping teams from getting to the free-throw line.

FSU could also be better at getting to the free-throw line themselves. They seem to avoid getting to the basket when they start to find themselves in a rut offensively, and have attempted less than 20 free throws four times this season, with the UNC game bottoming out at just 8 free throws. Sometimes they just have to be better at getting downhill and drawing contact; it's why they beat Colorado. If they continue to have this much of a difference at the free throw line, averaging 8 fewer attempts than they allow, it's going to be hard to keep up in some games.

Injury Report

Cam'Ron Fletcher re-injured his knee against UNC last week; the same knee he tore the ACL in last year. He'll be out for the remainder of the season.

Cam Corhen is dealing with a small fracture in his toe. I've been told it's just a pain tolerance thing with him, and they're hoping sitting him last weekend means he's good to go this weekend.

Primo Spears is still awaiting word from the NCAA on his transfer waiver.

For USF, Kasen Jennings hasn't played yet this season with a foot injury. It's unsure when he'll be available.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Jamir Watkins

F: Baba Miller

F: De'Ante Green

USF

G: Jose Placer

G: Kobe Knox

G: Chris Youngblood

G: Brandon Stroud

F: Daniel Tobiloba

Keys to the Game

Turnovers

Both of these defenses are good at forcing turnovers, FSU slightly more so than USF, and both offenses have had moments of weak ball-handling. Expect heavy ball pressure from both defenses. If USF was watching film from the FSU/UNC game, they'd know how that game turned once UNC went to their 2-2-1 press. Any smart team will show heavy pressure to FSU to get them out of a rhythm.

It's pretty simple in this one that FSU can't afford to let too many possessions go to waste in this game. Take advantage on defense, and limit your mistakes on offense.

Relative to the Norm

Florida State has been one of the best 3-point defenses in the country, while USF has been one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country. Even just shooting the ball in general, this has been one of the worst offenses in the country in terms of effective field goal percentage.

As long as things stay close to what they've been showing so far this season, it's going to be hard to see how USF finds a way to score consistently.

Don't Make Things Harder Than They Have to Be

Florida State has been handing out free tickets to the free throw line all season long it feels like. If there's any game they can try to correct it, this would be the best place to start. USF is middle of the pack in getting to the free throw line, and as established above, their offense is pretty lackluster when it comes to shooting the ball from everywhere else on the floor.

If FSU can limit those fouls, they're going to have a great chance of keeping USF to a pretty low number. Because both teams foul a lot though, this could end up being a 50-60 combined free throws kind of game.

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 8 points, with a projected total of 143.5.

This has been a sloppy game for FSU in years past, so I wouldn't be surprised to see this be lower scoring, but that spread is abominably low. That being said, the 'Noles should handle this game, barring some unforeseen offense from USF. Plus, FSU will be wearing the turquoise N7 uniforms, have to play well in those.

Florida State 71 USF 58

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