Game Preview: Florida State vs Boston College

It would be best to just forget what happened Wednesday night as soon as possible, and this is a straight sickos committee game between two teams hovering around the 200 mark in KenPom's rankings, so we'll keep this brief.

This game will be at 12pm on a regional sports network, live from the Donald L Tucker Center in Tallahassee, FL.

Boston College Eagles Breakdown

As mentioned, I'm going to keep this brief. This isn't a good basketball team, and more than likely won't be an entertaining game unless you enjoy suffering. These two teams are a combined 20-34. This isn't going to be a great recruiting tool moving forward, to say the least.

Of BC's 10 ACC losses, 7 have come by double digits, and only one was within five points. They have beaten Clemson and Virginia Tech recently, but they were borderline fluky wins. Clemson was happy to cough the ball up while being ice cold from 3, while Virginia Tech let Quinten Post do whatever he wanted.

Post is the biggest success story on the team, averaging 16 PPG and 6 RPG while shooting 55.6% from the floor, and even 42% from 3, making about one per game. He's going to give Florida State fits, especially if FSU continues to switch smaller defenders onto him. At 7'0", 240 pounds, he's a little bit bigger than Cameron Corhen, but much smoother than Naheem McLeod. This is going to be an interesting matchup to watch.

The other two players to watch for Boston College are guards Jaeden Zackary and Makai Ashton-Langford. Zackery was an incredible shooter for this team last season at 47.7%, but has struggled for the most part this season; just 33.3% on fewer attempts than last season. He's had a couple of 3/6 and even a 3/4 performances from 3, but he has to be a disappointment compared to where he ended last season. This does NOT mean you're allowed to give him space. Ashton-Langford is a solid all-around player that doesn't excel in any area. He's best when he can get downhill to the rim.

This is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in college basketball at just 30.8%. Outside of Post, no player that takes more than one 3-point attempt per game is making them at better than a 33.3% clip, and only two players outside of Post are above 30%. Just don't let them get to the free throw line, and they have a really hard time scoring in their normal halfcourt sets.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown

I have words to describe what happened Wednesday night at Clemson, which was one of the most pitiful displays of basketball I've ever seen from Florida State. Instead, I'll use one video.

presented without comment pic.twitter.com/Uyh9HKjot6
— Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG) February 17, 2023

It was at this moment when I started beating my head into the media table in Clemson. I'll go into more detail on what the problems of this team are and the plan to fix it at a later date (has taken me longer than expected to write it), but this entire season can be summed up by this singular video of Naheem McLeod breaking free in transition and missing the widest of wide open layups then not even getting the putback opportunity. Just embarrassing. Five more games everyone, we're almost there.

At least Baba Miller had a solid second half, but there's really nothing you can say positive when losing by 40.

Injury Report

Jaylan Gainey is out for the season with a torn ACL.

Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury.

Jeremiah Bembry is expected to sit for the whole season.

Matthew Cleveland missed the last game at Clemson with a back injury, and it's not certain if he'll play in this one.

Boston College is hopeful Demarr Langford Jr will be back this week from a knee injury, though he didn't play in the last game.

Donald Hand is out for the season with a torn ACL.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Caleb Mills

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Baba Miller

F: Cameron Corhen

Boston College

G: Makai Ashton-Langford

G: Jaeden Zackary

F: Prince Aligbe

F: Devin McGlockton

F: Quinten Post

Keys to the Game

Protect the Basketball

9 of Boston College's wins have come when they force turnovers on 21.5% of possessions or more. FSU can be shaky protecting the basketball at times, so this becomes paramount. This is a team that struggles to score in the halfcourt, so you can't let them get many easy points.

Crash the Offensive Glass

Boston College has only won once when allowing an offensive rebounding rate of 32% or more. Florida State is only pulling down 25.7% of their own missed shots, but they're more than capable of crashing the glass more when they need to.

Defend Without Fouling

As mentioned above, BC struggles to score in the halfcourt, so you can't let them get bail-out points by sending them to the free throw line. Most of their wins have come when posting a free throw rate of 30%+.

Game Prediction

Florida State is favored by 2.5 points with an over/under of 143.

If FSU doesn't win this one... it's going to be an ugly close to the season. Boston College isn't good, but obviously, neither is FSU. This should still be an FSU win, whether or not Cleveland plays.

FSU 67 BC 62