Game Preview: Florida State vs. Pitt
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Florida State is getting set for their rematch against Pittsburgh, a team that is currently tied for first in the ACC, and FSU has beaten this team already, with a win in their building. Can they have a repeat performance, but just in Tallahassee?
This game will be at 12pm on ESPNU, live from the Donald L Tucker Center in Tallahassee, FL.
Pittsburgh Panthers Breakdown
Since Pitt lost to FSU a couple of weeks ago, they’ve been on an absolute tear with wins over Miami, Wake Forest, at UNC, then dominating Louisville at home this past game. Miami is right there with them at the top of the ACC, so it was a much needed win after probably being slightly embarrassed by the FSU loss. Now, they’re looking to keep things rolling while trying to atone for the last game between these two.
Blake Hinson has had two 20+ scoring outings since losing to FSU, but then followed it up with a stinker of 2 points on 0/6 shooting against UNC. He recovered slightly to score 11 against Louisville, but he’s trying to perform how he was towards the end of January.
Jamarius Burton is averaging 13.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG, and 4.8 APG across these last four games, but the 3 has not been falling for him, just 2 for his last 9. FSU is hoping this isn’t the game he starts to find his shot.
Greg Elliott has been shooting a blistering 59.1% from 3 on 5.5 attempts per game across the last four games. Almost all of his points these last few games have come from 3, so FSU is going to need to keep an eye on him.
If you thought those numbers were impressive, Nelly Cummings is shooting 63.2% from 3 on just under 5 attempts per game these last four games, scoring 13 points per game and still dishing out more than 4 assists. FSU has to stay focused and communicate on the perimeter, otherwise they’re going to be in for a long game.
Florida State Seminoles Breakdown
FSU won the first game at Pitt strictly off of 3-point shooting and Darin Green Jr. After coming off of a game where they went just 9/35 from 3 against Syracuse, I’m not sure their confidence is at the highest level so they’re likely going to have to find a different way to win. I’m really expecting Pitt to take Darin Green out of this game as much as possible.
Since beating Pitt, when everyone thought FSU was finding momentum, they’ve really struggled, losing to Syracuse, NC State, Miami, Clemson, then a closer than needed win over Louisville. Any momentum this team had is out the window, and they’re now going against a team that has all of it.
Naheem McLeod has really played well these last couple of games, combining for 23 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 blocks in 37 minutes played between the Louisville and Syracuse games. He was the biggest reason FSU was in the game against the Orange, as Matthew Cleveland would flash to the high post and immediately throw it over the top to McLeod who was cashing in. It’ll be interesting to see if he can keep up this impact, as most fans had written him off up to this point.
The most interesting part of the Syracuse game was Chandler Jackson getting the start over Jalen Warley, and I thought Jackson was going a solid job of distributing the ball and getting it to the right spots. Is this going to be the plan going forward, or was it just an adjustment against the zone?
Injury Report
Jaylan Gainey is out for the season with an ACL injury.
Cam’Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury.
Jeremiah Bembry is expected to sit out the season.
For Pitt, John Hugley IV is out for the season following multiple injuries.
William Jeffress is out for the season with a toe injury.
Dior Johnson is out for the season on suspension.
Projected Starters
Florida State
G: Jalen Warley
G: Caleb Mills
G: Darin Green Jr
F: Matthew Cleveland
F: Cameron Corhen
Pittsburgh
G: Nelly Cummings
G: Greg Elliott
G: Jamarius Burton
G: Blake Hinson
C: Federiko Federiko
Keys to the Game
Limit the Open 3s
FSU did a great job of limiting open shots for Pitt from deep last time, and it led to the Panthers shooting 7/28 from the perimeter. It’s going to take a similar effort from FSU’s defense to get a win in this one, as this is likely going to be a hungry Pitt team, ready to prove the last loss was a fluke.
Keep it Clean
I feel like Pitt/FSU games are historically foul-driven, slow-paced games, and FSU would prefer this game stay up and down. Federiko got away with a couple of fouls last time, it’ll be interesting to see if he still has the same chippy play and see how the FSU players respond.
Darin Green Jr
Florida State won the game at Pitt on the back of Darin Green Jr and his 3-point shooting, when he went for 24 points on 5/8 shooting from 3. The rest of the team followed suit, and the whole squad went 10/20 for deep. That’s how you pull off upsets on the road, but can they replicate that formula at home? I kind of doubt it. I’m expecting Pitt to make Green’s life tough before he even touches the ball. FSU is going to likely have to find a way to win with minimal impact from him in this one, unless he can find ways to get open.
Game Prediction
Pitt is favored by 5.5 points with an over/under of 144.5.
The way these two teams are trending, I’m really not expecting FSU to win this game, but it is college basketball and anything is possible. For now, I’m taking Pitt by a decent margin.
Pitt 80 FSU 72
READ MORE: Florida State's full 2023 football schedule released
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