Game Preview: Florida State vs. UNC

It's the final home game of the season for Florida State, and they're fresh off of a thrilling come-from-behind victory over rival Miami, completing the largest comeback in ACC history, and ending Miami's perfect home record this season. Safe to say their emotions may not be back down to earth yet, and now they have to play a team who was in the national championship last season.

This game will be at 7 PM as part of ESPN's Big Monday, live from the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, FL.

North Carolina Tar Heels Breakdown

For a team that brought back 4 of 5 starters from a team that made the national championship last season, this year has to be considered a disappointment for the Tar Heels. They sit at just 18-11 overall and 10-8 in ACC play, They just picked up their first Q1 win of the season on Saturday against Virginia, and it's a resume that needed some quality wins. This is a game UNC simply cannot afford to lose as they've avoided the bad losses all season, and is an old-fashioned Everything to Lose vs Nothing to Lose type of game. A loss, and UNC's bubble may burst.

This isn't the UNC teams we're used to. They're still a good offensive rebounding and fast-paced team, but they're not elite on the glass or playing at a blistering pace like we saw in the last few seasons of Roy Williams or even last year. The two things they do really well are protect the basketball and get to the free throw line. Everything else is just fine offensively. They don't allow teams the chance at offensive rebounds on the other end, and do a good job of defending without fouling.

Armando Bacot is still an insane rebounder and paint presence at 17.0 PPG, 10.9 RPG (4.3 offensive), 1.5 APG, and 1.0 BPG. He's top-20 nationally in offensive rebound rate, and is one of the best offensive rebounders of all time. If FSU continues to switch everything in this game, he's going to tear them apart.

Caleb Love is as streaky of a player as they get. He's currently shooting 38.4% from the floor and 30.3% on 3s, taking more than 15 shot attempts per game. Last game against Virginia, he was just 2/12 from the floor with 2 turnovers and they still found a way to win. Compare that to his game earlier this month against Clemson when he was 7/12, and it's crazy to see how mercurial he can be shooting the ball. The raw numbers look great at 16.9 PPG, 3.7 RPG, and 2.7 APG, but his assist-to-turnover ratio is essentially 1:1, and the shooting percentages really aren't great. I think you have to be physical with him and not give him space to breathe.

RJ Davis is the other high scorer at 15.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG, and 3.3 APG, and is shooting at a better clip from the floor at 42.3%. I think UNC's biggest issue is they don't have a true distributor, as much as they'd like Love or Davis to be that guy. These two are just scorers more than anything. As a team, they only average 12 assists on almost 27 made shots per game, one of the lowest rates in the country. If Davis can step up and be a more natural point guard, it'll help this team a ton.

Pete Nance transferred over from Northwestern expected to fill the Brady Manek role from last season as a floor stretching big that can play either the 4 or the 5, and he just hasn't quite been that, shooting just 31.5% from 3. This is a poor 3-point shooting team in general at just 30.4%, one of the worst 20 teams in the country shooting the 3. Leaky Black certainly doesn't help that number either as a multi-positional defender, and doesn't provide too much offensively.

The only guys off of the bench you'll see play decent minutes are Puff Johnson, D'Marco Dunn, and Seth Trimble, but otherwise, it's the starters for 34+ minutes.

Florida State Seminoles Breakdown

In case you haven't seen it enough, here's Matthew Cleveland's buzzer-beater to lift FSU over Miami.

The whole game still doesn't make sense to me. They shot 76% on 2s and scored 1.543 points per possession in the second half. They finally CARED, and once they started seeing some shots go down, everything was going in. The defense still wasn't great, but a win over Miami is a win over Miami.

Florida State's ACC Tournament seeding is still up in the air. They're locked into playing on Tuesday, but can be anywhere from the 10-12 seed depending on how this week goes between them, Boston College, and Virginia Tech (who they play in the season finale Saturday). Their opponent is looking like anyone between Duke, NC State, UNC, or Wake Forest; basically just a whole bunch of teams that have already smacked FSU, and we'll see what happens tonight against UNC.

We'll go into it more next week, but it's hard to see this team making too much noise in the ACC Tournament. Anything is possible, as seen by Virginia Tech last season, but I just don't think this team is talented enough defensively.

Injury Report

Jaylan Gainey is out for the season with a torn ACL.

Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury.

Jeremiah Bembry is expected to sit out the whole season.

For UNC, Will Shaver is out for the season with a foot injury.

Projected Starters

Florida State

G: Jalen Warley

G: Caleb Mills

G: Darin Green Jr

F: Matthew Cleveland

F: Cameron Corhen

North Carolina

G: Caleb Love

G: RJ Davis

G: Leaky Black

F: Pete Nance

C: Armando Bacot

Keys to the Game

Offensive Glass

UNC isn't quite the same offensive rebounding team they've been in recent seasons, but they still possess one of the best offensive rebounders in the country in Armando Bacot, who is top-20 in the country in offensive rebound rate, and has a career 464 offensive rebounds, 11th since the start of the 2009-10 season. Cameron Corhen and switchers haven't been the best rebounding the ball, they're going to have to be in this one.

Force UNC Into Contested Shots

Caleb Love and RJ Davis can get shot happy at times, especially from 3. The two of them combine for 12.4 3PA per game, but make just 3.9. You can't let them spot up from 3, because they will make you pay. Be physical with them, play straight up, and force them into tough shots as much as you can.

Don't Be Afraid Of Contact

It's only natural to see someone like Bacot patrolling the middle and want to settle for jumpers, but FSU has to take charge in the paint to score in this one. They weren't able to find consistent offense until they got into the paint, got to the free throw line, and grabbed a few offensive rebounds. They're going to need a similar plan of attack if they want to keep pace.

Game Prediction

North Carolina is favored by 7 points with an over/under of 151.4.

UNC is a veteran team that knows who they are and that's important. I think FSU is going to be riding too high following the unreal Miami win and come out flat in this one.

UNC 87 FSU 71

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