Game Preview: FSU Basketball at Clemson Tigers
It is a game Clemson can't afford to lose. They'd be sitting around a 5 seed if the Tournament were to start this weekend, but a Quad 3 home loss to Florida State would drop them a seed line or two.
Luckily for them, Florida State does not have the best history playing at Clemson, with a 13-24 record on the road in this series, and has lost four of the last five.
This will be played at 7:45 PM on the CW Network, live from the Littlejohn Coliseum in Clemson, South Carolina.
Clemson Tigers Breakdown (18-8 Overall, 8-7 ACC)
I'm glad I held on to my Clemson stock from before the season. They're not going to finish in the top 2, as I said in my ACC preview before the season, but they're on pace to be one of the few teams representing the ACC in the NCAA Tournament. This is a good basketball team, and the record is finally starting to show it, having won 4 of their last 5.
However, they've been weirdly suspect at home in conference play outside of the Miami game a couple of weeks ago. At the Littlejohn Coliseum, Clemson is 3-4 in ACC play with an average point differential of +2.7 per game. If there was ever an opportunity to pull off an upset, this would be the time.
A big reason why Clemson has had success recently is the insertion of Jack Clark into the starting lineup as a small forward. He was hurt for most of the first half of the season, and it took him some time to get back in the swing of things. In those five games, Clark averaged 7 points and 7 rebounds per game while shooting 44.4% from the floor and 35.7% from 3. He gives them more defensive versatility and rebounding than RJ Godfrey had been providing while still providing a similar shooting threat.
Chase Hunter has also turned around a shooting slump massively. In January, he was shooting just 20% from 3 on about 4 attempts per game. In February, he's up to 52.2% on the same amount of attempts and has hit 11 of his last 18 triples. He's always been a three-level threat, but now that he's making his 3s, he's that much harder to guard.
Joseph Girard is also playing at a high level, having won ACC Player of the Week two weeks ago after road wins at UNC and his former team, Syracuse. He's shooting the three at an elite level right now, as he has been for most of his career.
The fact we've gone this long without mentioning PJ Hall tells you how well this team has played since last playing FSU. Florida State's goal is likely still to try and get him in foul trouble (as Clemson is 2-2 in games he fouls out), but he's averaging just 2 fouls per game over his last 7 games.
Ian Schieffelin has continued to be one of the more underrated players in the ACC as well. It's such a well-balanced starting 5, and now that they're subbing in Wiggins, Godfrey, and Beadle, they've started to find a rhythm. They're shooting above 80% from the free-throw line and 52.5% on 2s in ACC play, so when you combine that with the hot shooting from 3 they've had recently, it's a really tough team to play against.
Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (14-12 Overall, 8-7 ACC)
In a game where FSU was missing both Darin Green Jr. and Primo Spears, I went in somewhat concerned about how the offense would look and came away very impressed. The assist rate looked the same as it has recently, but it just felt the ball was moving better without those two in the lineup as I was watching. Despite missing their best on-paper 3-point shooter, FSU shot their third-highest 3-point percentage of their last 11 games.
A lot of that has to do with the inclusion of Chandler Jackson into the starting lineup. Using Jackson as a shooting guard, who has grown as a scorer but is a natural point guard, helps keep the ball from sticking. When he catches the ball, he has a plan, which is a huge improvement to where he was as a freshman. And Jackson's growth as a shooter has helped this. Since the start of January, he's shooting a blistering 42.9% from deep (albeit on just over 1 attempt per game) and 50% in February on 2 attempts per game. I would personally be okay with him starting in place of Darin Green for the rest of the season and using Green as a key bench shooter.
Cohen was finally back in the starting lineup on Tuesday night after not starting since the Colorado game, where he hurt his toe. Part of the reason Coach Ham doesn't like changing starting lineups is continuity. It's harder to establish a rhythm game-to-game when you're constantly changing who's starting. That's why the change was made now; since Darin Green had to sit out, they might as well go with a fresh change somewhere else too.
The defense is going to have to be better in this game, though. Boston College scored 1.118 points per possession on FSU, and that's with Claudell Harris having a rough game shooting the ball. BC is a good warm-up for Clemson with their two big members in the frontcourt and having a 5-man that can shoot the ball from a distance. Clemson is a little bigger now that they're playing Jack Clark at small forward, but the playstyles from their 4s are similar. Florida State is going to have to communicate better defensively against Clemson.
Injury Report
Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury.
Darin Green Jr. missed the last game with a shoulder injury; his status is up in the air.
Primo Spears sat the last game in a coach's decision. From what I understand, Spears handled something in the game incorrectly and was being punished for it. We'll see if he plays in this one.
Clemson's Alex Hemenway has been out since November 24 with a lower-body injury.
Projected Starters
Clemson
G: Chase Hunter
G: Joseph Girard III
F: Jack Clark
F: Ian Schieffelin
F: PJ Hall
Florida State
G: Jalen Warley
G: Chandler Jackson
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Baba Miller
F: Cameron Corhen
Keys to the Game
Be Prepared for Every Situation
A big reason why Clemson won the first matchup this season was Coach Brownell's ability to keep Florida State off-balanced by mixing up defenses out of timeouts. They'd switch between man and zone defense on timeouts and you could tell FSU was prepared for the other defense when Clemson would switch it up.
Jalen Warley, Jamir Watkins, and Chandler Jackson are going to have to do a good job of identifying defenses and getting calls in that can keep the offense flowing.
3-Point Defense and Joseph Girard
Clemson has shot above 40% from 3 in three of their last four games, all of those being wins. A lot of that success is due to Joseph Girard III, who was named ACC Player of the Week two weeks ago, going for 21 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists while shooting 5/10 from 3 at UNC and 18 points and 4 rebounds shooting 4/5 from 3 at Syracuse. In ACC play alone, he's averaging more than 16 PPG, shooting 42.6% from deep.
The 3-point defense as a whole has to be an emphasis for Florida State, but especially on Girard. He's more than capable of pulling up from well beyond the arc, whether in transition or a half-court set, so FSU is going to have to be disciplined on their switches.
Can Florida State Dictate the Pace of Play?
I'm not sure what pace this game needs to be played at for Florida State to win, but it has to be their pace, whatever pace they feel comfortable at. Clemson did a good job in the first matchup of dictating things on their terms; FSU has to switch it around in this matchup.
Usually, that involves picking up the tempo, creating chaos with their defense, and forcing turnovers. Still, Clemson has done a good job of taking care of the basketball (though FSU did force them into their second-highest turnover rate of the season). FSU is likely going to have to find ways to set the tempo outside of turnovers, and it could be getting to the free-throw line.
Game Prediction
Clemson is favored by 9.5 points with a projected total of 150.5.
This is one of those lines where I saw it released and was shocked initially, especially when you consider how they've played at home in ACC play this year. So naturally, Clemson will win by double digits because Vegas always knows.
Clemson 84, Florida State 72
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