Game Preview: FSU Basketball vs. Boston College Eagles
Florida State has lost five of its last six games, but that one win came at Boston College, making this a prime opportunity to bounce back at home. A tough loss to Duke on Saturday may have their spirits a little lower.
Boston College won in Tallahassee for the first time since 2007 last year, so FSU can't afford yet another home loss to them.
This game will be at 7 PM on the ACC Network, live from the Donald L Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Florida.
Boston College Eagles Breakdown (15-10 Overall, 6-8 ACC)
It's been a much different road for these two teams since they played two weeks ago. Boston College lost to FSU and followed it up with a loss to Duke, but have since rattled off two straight home wins over Louisville and Miami. Four of their last five games have been at home, so they'll have to get used to playing on the road again, as they haven't even won a road game since January 27th against Notre Dame.
Compared to Florida State, who has lost three straight since beating BC, the Eagles feel a little better about their situation.
What has helped is changing the starting lineup. BC changed its starting lineup against Florida State, but not having Claudell Harris in that initial rotation killed their offense. Prince Aligbe hurt his ankle and BC started to find some offensive success with him out.
Aligbe didn't miss any games following the FSU game but has come off of the bench since as coach Earl Grant has gone with a lineup of Jaeden Zackary, Claudell Harris, Mason Madsen, Devin McGlockton, and Quinten Post to give them some more offense. It's worked thus far, scoring 89 points against Louisville and 85 against Miami.
This has also helped them cut down on turnovers. In their three most recent games they've averaged just under 9 turnovers per game and a turnover rate of around just 13%. In the four games before that, which includes the FSU game, they were averaging 16.5 turnovers per game and a turnover rate of around 23%. They generally play low-possession games, so capitalizing on every possession and not turning it over is vital.
Madsen has helped them space the floor for Post, but Madsen has benefitted as well, as he's coming off of 25 points against Miami, which included a 7/12 performance from 3. Let's just hope he got all of his hot shooting out of the way, I'm not sure the Tucker Center can bear another one after Virginia's Isaac McKneely and Duke's Jared McCain.
Florida State Seminoles Breakdown (13-12 Overall, 7-7 ACC)
There are certainly some things to monitor with Florida State as we close these last six games. Many are wondering if this will be Coach Hamilton's final season roaming the sidelines, but with him having consistently said he wants to keep coaching last offseason until he or someone at FSU says otherwise, I'm not worried about it.
What I am monitoring is rotations, specifically with Primo Spears. Spears had a curious foul out against Virginia Tech, intentionally fouling out on an 88% free throw shooter with 1:30 left, then didn't play at all in the second half against Duke after 14 minutes in the first half. There was a time when he was vital to bench production, giving this team the spark and playmaking needed, but he's been a rough watch the last few games, culminating in a -13 in just one half against Duke.
I think it's fair to say that Chandler Jackson's playing well has minimized what Spears can do. Jackson is younger, better defensively, and has more size, which makes him more malleable with different lineups, even going down and playing the 3 at times this season. When Spears is on the floor, he has to have the ball in his hands and takes the highest percentage of shots on the team. Jackson is more willing to play off the ball, which matters.
I also think it's time to cut Josh Nickelberry's playing time completely. If we look at box plus/minus (an estimate of points contributed per 100 possessions) in the last few games, he was a -23.9 against Duke, -7.8 against Virginia, 0.3 against Boston College, and -4.9 against Louisville. He somehow had a +6.2 rating against Virginia Tech, which is odd considering he played just 7 minutes and was an actual -5 in regular plus/minus. With younger players like Jackson and even Tom House, their development has to matter at this stage in the season if he's not going to provide anything positive. He also didn't play in the second half against Duke.
Taylor Bol Bowen and De'Ante Green also didn't play in the second half against Duke. Bowen made sense, as he was a -9 for the first half, but I still thought he gave some quality possessions and his length is bothersome for some teams. De'Ante Green has received weird minutes every game and at this point it's strange he's still starting.
Injury Report
Cam'Ron Fletcher is out for the season with a knee injury.
Projected Starters
Florida State
G: Jalen Warley
G: Darin Green Jr
F: Jamir Watkins
F: Baba Miller
F: De'Ante Green
Boston College
G: Jaeden Zackary
G: Claudell Harris
G: Mason Madsen
F: Devin McGlockton
C: Quinten Post
Keys to the Game
Consistent Scoring
Florida State started the last game against BC up 19-4 within the first six minutes before scoring just 44 for the remaining 34 minutes. Against this defense, FSU has to find consistent ways to score and it starts for them by getting to the basket to get to the free throw line.
They only shot four free throws in that contest, but have averaged around 24 attempts per game in the last three games (which is heavily weighed down by the Duke game). If they can get to around that number, they should have a good chance of winning.
Pick Up the Pace
FSU's last four games have all been under 70 possessions, a big reason why they haven't had the success they've wanted. When they were on that 5-game winning streak in January, they averaged around 73 possessions per game. It can't be at too frantic of a pace like the Louisville game, but they do need more chances to score.
They also can't be turning it over as much as they have been, as 4 of their last 5 losses have had turnover rates higher than 19%. FSU would like to live in the 12-14% range in this game.
Turn Them Over
Speaking of turnovers, the Seminoles haven't been turning teams over at their normal rate. For a good part of the season, FSU was turning teams over at a 22-24% rate, but they weren't able to do it against either of the Virginia teams this month.
A big reason they beat Boston College two weeks ago was forcing a 22% turnover rate. Do that again and they should walk away with another win.
Game Prediction
Florida State is favored by 4 points with a projected total of 152.5.
I really don't know how FSU is going to come out in this game. Do they show energy knowing that Boston College is a team they have beaten and can beat again? Or are they distraught after three losses in winnable games against Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Duke? I'll say they pull this one out, but I'm not confident in this pick.
Florida State 70, Boston College 67
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