NoleGameday Staff Score Predictions: Florida State at Louisville
Florida State is undergoing final preparations for its first true road game of the season against the Louisville Cardinals. This is a contest that is pivotal for both programs. The Seminoles are trying to get to 3-0 for the first time since 2015 while the Cardinals can't afford to drop to 0-2 in conference play this early in 2022. FSU has yet to defeat Louisville under head coach Mike Norvell. The team will look to change that on Friday night.
READ MORE: Florida State Seminoles release depth chart for Louisville Cardinals
Two of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the ACC will be taking the field in this matchup in Louisville's Malik Cunningham and Florida State's Jordan Travis. Cunningham has struggled to find a rhythm through the air in the Cardinals' first two games but he diced UCF up with his legs to lead the team to a road win. On the flip side, Travis has found the balance between scrambling and throwing the ball. With an influx of talent at wide receiver, Travis is currently playing the best football of his career.
Louisville's defense has struggled to defend the run thus far, allowing 208 yards on the ground to Syracuse and UCF. Florida State is averaging 269 rushing yards per game. The bulk of that production came against Duquesne but the Seminoles should be able to find success against a Cardinals' front seven that lost Jermayne Lole for the year.
With that being said, UL has been at its best on third-down, only allowing 10/27 (37%) conversions, including 4/16 (25%) against UCF. Florida State is currently tied for ninth in the country in third-down conversion percentage at 59.3% (16/27). The Seminoles converted on 11/17 (64.7%) third-downs in the win over LSU in New Orleans.
Our staff provides their analysis and predictions as the Seminoles take on the Cardinals.
Dustin Lewis (@Dussttin)
Prior to the beginning of the season, I had this game pegged as a loss for Florida State. I expected Louisville to be one of the contenders for the ACC Atlantic crown, and maybe the entire conference. However, the Cardinals came out flat against Syracuse and would've lost to UCF if the Knights had a quarterback that could actually throw the football.
Louisville's offensive line has had its fair share of struggles and the pressure appears to have gotten to Cunningham. It's not going to get any easier against a Seminoles' defensive line that is stacked with talent on the interior and off the edge. Plus, Florida State has a pair of linebackers in Tatum Bethune and Kalen DeLoach who will be instrumental in limiting Cunningham's impact on the ground. That might be what decides the game.
The keys for the Seminoles on offense are to run the ball early and often and take advantage of third downs. Louisville's defense hasn't done much right in 2022 but it has been solid at stopping teams on later downs. If Florida State can stay ahead of the chains, it'll put the 'Noles in a position to win this game.
I expect this one to be a little ugly since it's Florida State's first true road game but the Seminoles hold on in the fourth quarter to advance to 3-0. This team will be ranked for the first time since 2018 on Monday.
Season record: 1-1
Florida State 31, Louisville 27
Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)
The Seminoles are heading into a game where we'll get a real true feeling if this team has matured from last year. Florida State had all the national attention and love after their 24-23 win against the LSU Tigers two weekends ago but it's time to erase that from memory and go compete on the road in which they haven't been successful under Mike Norvell.
The keys to winning this game are finding the run game and finding it early. Norvell early on in this season has shown us that his strategy in games is to run the clock and take advantage of getting down the field with his offense, keeping them on the field as long as possible to start wearing down the defenses. It will be a busy night for FSU's running back room as they try to dice through Louisville's poor rushing game defense.
Defensively, FSU will need to stop and contain Malik Cunningham. How do you do that? Say hello to Kalen DeLoach, Tatum Bethune,and DJ Lundy. These three linebackers are moving and they're moving quickly. Linebackers coach Randy Shannon has done a nice job so far making sure their assignments are in check and getting to the ball quickly while also reading the backfield when it's on the move. They must be alert on Friday night against a talented quarterback in Cunningham.
I felt iffy on this game earlier in the week but after watching Monday and Tuesday's practice, this team looks back into a groove like they did in preparation week for LSU. That's what I needed to see.
Season record: 2-0
Florida State 31, Louisville 24
Austin Veazey (@NolesVikesVeaz)
It’s a tough game to call in what should in a tough environment. Malik Cunningham and the Louisville offense have played poorly to start the season, and you’d think at some point they’d revert back to high-powered offense… right? Well, hopefully, it’s not in this game.
I’m expecting FSU to look to sustain long drives and convert in the red zone, which they didn’t do a great job of in the latter half of the LSU game. Should be a heavy emphasis on the run game, so I’ll keep it lower scoring
Season record: 1-1
Florida State 27, Louisville 24
Charleston Bowles (@Cbowles01)
After two weeks of rest and preparation, Florida State has an opportunity to start 3-0 for the first time since 2015. The Cardinals have won two consecutive games in this series, but the Seminoles break that streak with a win on the road.
I believe the offense relies on a steady balance between the pass and run, but the X-factor is redshirt junior quarterback Jordan Travis making efficient and smart decisions in the red zone.
Season record: 2-0
Florida State 30, Louisville 24
John Jenkins (@_jmj4_)
This week is a big test in seeing where this football program is right now. Louisville has had relative success against the 'Noles for the past few seasons. I expect the Seminoles to come out after a BYE, and execute building off of the momentum in Louisiana winning this game
Season record: 2-0
Florida State 31, Louisville 17
Maddox Nebel (@MaddoxNebel)
A physical matchup will be present throughout the game but the winning factor is quarterback play and that comes from Jordan Travis. This time as he takes down his former school.
Season record: 2-0
Florida State 30, Louisville 24
Jon Conahan (@JonConahan)
Florida State and Louisville should be one of the more entertaining games of the week. The Cardinals haven't necessarily played well in the early part of the season, losing to Syracuse by 24 points and barely beating UCF. The Seminoles, on the other hand, have played exceptionally well and will continue that this Friday night.
Season record: 2-0
Florida State 27, Louisville 13
Jacob Stevens (@Jacob_Stevens26)
I think this game could go either way but the deciding factor will be if the 'Noles can contain Malik Cunningham and I think they will.
Season record: 2-0
Florida State 31, Louisville 21
Dillon Riera (@13d_riera)
By every expert (and betting) account, this game is sure to be a coin-flip decision. For two teams that have experienced very different starts to their respective seasons, one wouldn't have the feeling that the Cardinals could even keep it close with the fired up Seminoles. Personally, I'd like to say the 'Noles have this one with relative ease, especially coming off of a bye week, a confidence-boosting win, and receiving overwhelming support from the fanbase. However, given the recent struggles Norvell and company have had with this gritty Louisville program, I see this as a close contest.
For me, there exists no doubt in my mind the Florida State offense is going to find ways to put points on the board. Jordan Travis will helm the FSU offense (which is averaging 35.5 PPG) against a Louisville defense that is allowing roughly 207.5 rushing yards per game and yielding 22.5 PPG. Rather, the emphasis is on the defense to find ways to contain a streaky Louisville offense. Against LSU, the Florida State defense allowed Jayden Daniels, a well-known scrambling quarterback, to account for 114 of the Tigers' 139 total rushing yards. Against Louisville, Jared Verse and the FSU defense will once again have to find a way to contain a scrambling quarterback in Malik Cunningham.
I look for Florida State to prove its growth and maturity in Norvell's third year and avoid the usual pitfalls young teams make following an emotional win. I believe the Seminoles will travel to Cardinal Stadium with a well-rounded ground attack on offense and the defense, despite giving up explosive plays throughout the game, will make a crucial stop down the stretch to outlast the Cardinals.
Season record: 0-0
Florida State 34, Louisville 27
CONSENSUS: Florida State (9-0)
READ MORE: Former Penn State running back enrolls at Florida State
Stick with NoleGameday for more coverage of Florida State football throughout the season.
Follow Dustin Lewis on Twitter
