Examining Georgia's Potential Routes to the 2023 College Football Playoff
With Tuesday's release of the penultimate 2023 College Football Playoff rankings ahead of Saturday's conference championship games, Georgia's potential paths to a third-consecutive College Football Playoff berth have become more clear.
Of course, with Georgia retaining its No. 1 ranking for the third-straight week, the program's clearest and most foolproof path back to the College Football Playoff is with a win over Alabama in Saturday's SEC Championship Game in Atlanta. Defeat the Crimson Tide and Georgia is all but assured of receiving the top overall seed and a spot in the College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1.
If, however, Georgia were to fall to Alabama on Saturday in Atlanta - an outcome that remains a distinct possibility - the Bulldogs' path back to the College Football Playoff becomes much cloudier. Georgia would not necessarily be outright eliminated from Playoff contention if they were, indeed, to lose to the Crimson Tide, but they may need help from one or more of the underdogs in Saturday's other conference championship games.
Michigan, as an overwhelming favorite against Iowa in the Big 10 Championship Game, will almost certainly emerge victorious from that game and earn a berth in the Playoff. The winner of Friday's Pac-12 Championship game, be it Oregon or Washington, will also likely find itself in the Playoff. With Ohio State's loss to Michigan last weekend, Washington moved up one spot to No. 3 in the CFP rankings on Tuesday. Given that they are already ranked inside the top-4, if the Huskies defeat Oregon on Friday, they will likely be a lock to earn a CFP berth. If Oregon - the No. 6 team in Tuesday's CFP rankings - were to defeat Washington, the Ducks would also have a strong chance to move inside the top-4 and earn a spot in the CFP.
Those outcomes seem to be rather straightforward. After that, though, the scenarios become far more nebulous. Under normal circumstances, with its 12-0 regular season record, Florida State would typically be assumed to be a guarantee for a playoff berth if it wins the ACC Championship game over Louisville on Saturday night, especially given its No. 4 ranking in the latest CFP rankings. However, the season-ending injury to star quarterback Jordan Travis two weeks ago has complicated the Seminoles' situation. Will the CFP Committee factor Travis' injury into their calculus and use that as the pretext to keep Florida State out of the CFP? It is certainly a very real possibility that the Committee could do exactly that, but it would stand to reason that the Committee would have already dropped Florida State in the rankings if it was going to do so on the basis of Travis' injury. With it opting not to do that this week, it is dubious that they would do so if the Seminoles win their conference championship game. However, without Travis, Florida State does stand a real chance of losing to Louisville on Saturday, which would end its CFP hopes.
Texas is in perhaps an even more tenuous position than Florida Sate. At 11-1, the Longhorns stuck at No. 7 in the latest CFP rankings, which raises serious questions about their ability to vault inside the top-four even if they defeat No. 18 Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game on Saturday. That win would likely lead the Committee to move Texas ahead of Ohio State at No. 6, but it is difficult to imagine a scenario where a win over the Cowboys would provide Texas enough of a push to jump over Florida State or the Pac-12 Champion into the top-four. If the Longhorns were to be selected for the CFP they would be the first team ranked outside of the top-six in the penultimate rankings to be selected.
While a loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game would certainly imperil Georgia's playoff chances, it would not necessarily represent a death blow. With Texas and Alabama at No. 7 and No. 8 respectively in the latest CFP rankings, it is distinctly possible that the Selection Committee will still view the top-ranked Bulldogs as a more-worthy option for selection into the CFP than the Longhorns or Crimson Tide. After all, following its loss to Michigan last week, Ohio State fell from No. 2 to No. 6, but still remained ahead of both Texas and Alabama in the rankings. If the Committee currently perceives Georgia to have separated itself from Texas and Alabama by that wide of a margin, would one loss to the No. 8 team be enough to convince the Committee to drop Georgia out of the top-four? Only time will tell if, indeed, it comes to that, but, given its spot atop the rankings, it is reasonable to surmise that Georgia would still stand a strong chance to remain inside the top-four, even with a loss to the Crimson Tide on Saturday.
However, if the Selection Committee were to keep Georgia ahead of Alabama in the final rankings after losing to the Crimson Tide, it would mean the Committee would supersede the head-to-head precedent that they have largely followed to this point in the process. The Committee has honored on-field results in head-to-head matchups inside the top-10 by consistently ranking Washington ahead of Oregon and Texas ahead of Alabama. Perhaps the Committee does view Georgia as so far ahead of Alabama that even a win over Georgia will not vault the Crimson Tide ahead of the Bulldogs, but that is far from a guarantee given how the Committee has approached head-to-head results to this point in the process.
In the event that a potential win over No. 1 team leads the Selection Committee to jump Alabama ahead of Georgia, the Bulldogs would still potentially have a path to the CFP. In that scenario, Michigan, the Pac-12 Champion, and Alabama would be in, leaving Georgia to vie with Texas and Florida State for the final Playoff spot. It is unlikely that a one-loss Georgia team would remain ahead of a 13-0 Florida State team with an ACC Championship to its name and while Georgia could still feasibly finish ahead of No. 7 Texas even with a loss to Alabama, the Committee does have a history of placing added weight on conference championships, which would give Texas an edge over the Bulldogs. Therefore, in the event that an Alabama win leads to the Crimson Tide jumping Georgia in the CFP rankings, the Bulldogs' could well need both Florida State and Texas to lose in their respective conference title games.
The scenarios are as convoluted as they are plentiful, but one thing remains certain: defeat Alabama on Saturday in the SEC Championship Game and Georgia will be taking in New Years in the Big Easy.
