Georgia vs Ole Miss Preview - What the Numbers Say About the Matchup

A look at the top-10 matchup between the Georgia Bulldogs and Ole Miss Rebels based on what the stats tell us.

Georgia and Ole Miss are set to play for the first time since 2016. This time on a much bigger stage. The Bulldogs are one win away from clinching the eastern division and an SEC title game appearance, while Ole Miss is trying to keep their playoff hopes alive with just one loss. Georgia surprisingly opened up as an 11-5-point favorite earlier in the week, but what do the rest of the numbers say about this game? 

Let's start with the basics. Georgia is averaging 39.3 points per game, and Ole Miss is averaging 38.8. On the flip side, Georgia is allowing an average of 15.4 points per game, while Ole Miss is allowing an average of 22.9. To get a little more specific, against conference opponents, Georgia is allowing just 18 points per game, and Ole Miss is averaging 26 points allowed per conference game. 

With this being a home game for the Bulldogs, the atmosphere of a night game crowd could play a role, and based on Ole Miss' penalty numbers, it looks like they will. The Rebels are averaging 7.3 penalties per game for an average of 62.6 yards per game, and for road games, they are averaging eight penalties per game. 

Outside of penalties, though, if there is a weakness of this Ole Miss offense, it's on third down. The Rebels are converting just 36.3% of the time, while UGA is converting 55.2% of the time. Georgia also ranks as the third-best defense in the country on third down, as teams are converting just 26.6% of the time. 

Georgia defensive back Julian Humphrey (12) during Georgia’s game against Missouri on Dooley Field at Sanford Stadium in Athens, Ga., on Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023. (Tony Walsh/UGAAA)

Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart hasn't been super efficient on third down either. Here is how he and Carson Beck stack up against one another on third down: 

• Dart: 29/56 (51.8%), 409 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 19 1st downs converted 
• Beck: 42/65 (64.6%), 550 yards, 2 INT, 29 1st downs converted

One way Georgia can force Ole Miss into tough third-down situations is by getting after the quarterback, and they should be able to on Saturday. Ole Miss ranks 78th for sacks allowed this season, allowing an average of 2.2 per game. Ole Miss also ranks 110th in tackles for loss allowed this season, allowing. an average of seven per game. Georgia will also have their hands full as well though as the Rebels are averaging 3.4 sacks per game. 

This final stat should make Georgia fans feel pretty good about their chances this weekend. 

Not a single team in 2023 has had more than 370 yards of total offense against the Bulldogs' defense. In every game that Ole Miss has been held under 400 yards of total offense, they escaped Tulane with a 17-point victory, they lost to Alabama by 14, and they beat Arkansas by 7 points. Would have to think that if Georgia can hold Lane Kiffin's offense under that mark, they would be in pretty could shape to come out with a win. 

Other Georgia News:

• Two Georgia Bulldogs Earn SEC Player of the Week Awards For Week 10
• Player Profile: How Can Oscar Delp Contribute to Georgia's Success?
• WATCH: Kirby Smart Joins Media to Recap Missouri and Look Ahead to Ole Miss

Join the Community:

Follow Brooks Austin on Twitter: @BrooksAustinBA

Subscribe to our YouTube Page HERE.

You can follow us for future coverage by clicking "Follow" on the top right-hand corner of the page. Also, be sure to like us on Facebook @BulldogMaven & follow us on Twitter at @DawgsDailyFN