ESPN FPI Releases Game-by-Game Predictions For Georgia Tech's 2026 Season

With ACC media days wrapping up today, football season is inching closer and closer to starting.

Georgia Tech is entering the 2026 season with a lot of new faces on both sides of the ball, as well as two new coordinators. That does not mean the standard is changing under head coach Brent Key and the program identity is going to remain the same. The Yellow Jackets love playing the part of the underdog and they are going to be underdogs in a number of games this season.

ESPN's FPI (Football Power Index) was updated this week and the game-by-game percentages were released yesterday. How does FPI see Georgia Tech's season playing out?

Game 1: vs Colorado- FPI gives Georgia Tech a 59% chance to win

FPI likes Georgia Tech to beat the Buffaloes to start the season and get a big non-conference win.

This game is going to be fascinating in a number of ways, with both teams having a pair of new coordinators and plenty of new faces on their roster. The Yellow Jackets have more talent and more of a program identity under Brent Key and I think that is going to lead them to victory in this game, as does FPI.

Record: 1-0, 0-0 ACC

Game 2 vs Tennessee- FPI gives Tennessee a 74% chance to win this game

This is without a doubt going to be one of the toughest games on Georgia Tech's schedule.

The Volunteers are going to be breaking in a new quarterback this season, but they have loads of talent elsewhere. This is going to be a nice litmus test to see where Georgia Tech is so early in the season.

Georgia Tech plays well at home under Brent Key and they have pulled upsets before as sizeable underdogs before. The Vols are more talented than Georgia Tech, but I think the Yellow Jackets have more of a shot to win this game than given credit for.

Record: 1-1, 0-0 ACC

Game 3 vs Mercer- FPI gives Georgia Tech a 94% chance to win

Mercer is a good FCS program that is used to making playoff appearances and coming off the Tennessee game, Georgia Tech is going to have to be ready and make sure to take them seriously. Still, the Yellow Jackets are far more talented and should win this game.

Record: 2-1, 0-0 ACC

Game 4 at Stanford- FPI gives Georgia Tech a 60% chance to win this game

Stanford is projected to be the worst team in the conference and are starting another rebuild under new head coach Tavita Pritchard, a former Stanford QB.

West Coast trips can be difficult, but I think this one is sandwiched into a good spot for Georgia Tech. They play Mercer the week before and have a bye week the following week, so it is not going to be sandwiched into between tough games and easy to overlook.

I think the Yellow Jackets are more talented than Stanford and should win this game.

Record: 3-1, 1-0 ACC

Game 5 vs Duke- FPI gives Georgia Tech a 59% chance to win this game

The reigining ACC champs are going to come to Atlanta after the Yellow Jackets week five bye week.

They might be the defending champions, but they are going to look much different this season. Darian Mensah, Cooper Barkate, and a host of top defenders are gone and Duke did not have much time to replace all of them, especially Mensah and Barkate.

This game is in Atlanta and Brent Key is 2-0 against Manny Diaz at Duke. FPI thinks that he will be 3-0 after this season.

Record: 4-1, 2-0 ACC

Game 6 at Virginia Tech- FPI gives Virginia Tech a 66% chance to win this game

If Georgia Tech's season plays out this way, this could be a very important game for both teams, flashing back to the days of the ACC Coastal, when the Hokies and Yellow Jackets met and often decided who went to the ACC Championship game.

That might not be at stake necessarily in this game, but it will be the first chance that Key and his program get to face James Franklin, who is entering his first year in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech should be much better this season and are viewed as a dark-horse contender to win the conference.

Record: 4-2, 2-1 ACC

Game 7 vs Boston College- FPI gives Georgia Tech a 77% chance to win this game

Georgia Tech is going to play the two teams projected to be at the bottom of the conference this season.

The Eagles fell to 2-10 in 2025 after making a bowl game in 2024, but they were able to put a real scare into the Yellow Jackets late in the season. However, I think the Eagles are going to be near the bottom of the standings again and at home, Georgia Tech should grab a victory here.

Record: 5-2, 3-1 ACC

Game 8 at Pittsburgh- FPI gives Pitt a 64% chance to win

This game will start the toughest and perhaps most important stretch of games on Georgia Tech's schedule.

The Yellow Jackets will travel to Pitt, host Louisville, and travel to Clemson late in the season and if they are 3-1 or even 4-0 in conference play heading into this three week stretch, how they perform over this period will determine whether or not they are going to be able to get to Charlotte.

Pittsburgh ruined Georgia Tech's chance to get to the ACC Championship game last season by beating them at home and Key and the Yellow Jackets would love nothing more than to return the favor. It will be a tough test and FPI gives the edge to the home team.

Record: 5-3, 3-2 ACC

Game 9 vs Louisville- FPI gives Louisville a 60% chance to win this game

The Cardinals are one of the preseason contenders to make it to Charlotte and Key has yet to beat Jeff Brohm at Louisviile, going 0-2 in their first two meetings.

This game is at home and is going to be imperative for both teams to win. FPI sees Louisville as the slight favorite in this one.

Record: 5-4, 3-3 ACC

Game 10 at Clemson- FPI gives Clemson an 80% chance to win this game

While the Tigers are going to be favored in this game, I think FPI is overrating their chances a little bit here.

Clemson just had nine players drafted, their high school recruiting is not as elite as it once was, and this program does not go heavy into the transfer portal. They are still talented, and Dabo Swinney is an excellent coach, but I don't view them as this much better than Georgia Tech. But FPI does, and that is what matters in this exercise.

Record: 5-5, 3-4 ACC

Game 11 vs Wake Forest- FPI gives Georgia Tech a 59% chance to win this game

After overachieving and winning nine games a season ago, Wake Forest lost a lot of talent in the transfer portal and are expected to be near the bottom of the league. I would bet on Jake Dickert getting his team near a bowl game again though and they will be a tough team to play.

If the season plays out how FPI thinks it is going to play out, this will be a must win for Georgia Tech to get to a bowl game, or they will have to beat Georgia the following week to do that.

Record: 6-5, 4-4 ACC

Game 12 at Georgia-FPI gives Georgia a 94% chance to win this game

FPI is not giving the Yellow Jackets much of a chance to snap their long losing streak to the Bulldogs.

Given the recent history between these two programs and how close Georgia Tech has come to beating Georgia, I think the odds of them winning this game are more than 6%. UGA is going to be a national championship contender this season and are one of the preseason favorites to win the SEC.

Final Record: 6-6, 4-4 ACC

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