SP+ Projects Where Georgia Tech Will Finish In The ACC This Season

Dec 27, 2024; Birmingham, AL, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King (10) throws the ball on the run against the Vanderbilt Commodores during the first half of the 2024 Birmingham Bowl at Protective Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vasha Hunt-Imagn Images | Vasha Hunt-Imagn Images

After back-to-back seven-win seasons, it seems like Key's program might be ready to break through in a bigger way. Since taking over as the head coach, Key has put together two impressive seasons of wins over ranked teams and has added more talent to the roster. With enough returning experience, coaching stability on the offensive side of the ball, a talented transfer portal and high school recruiting classes, and a favorable schedule, some are projecting Georgia Tech to be among the ACC's top teams.

SP+ likes Georgia Tech, but not as much as other projection systems seem to. In yesterday's ACC preview from ESPN's Bill Connelly (creator of SP+), the Yellow Jackets are projected to finish 8th in the conference.

What is SP+? Here is how ESPN analyst Bill Connelly describes it:

"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

Here is how SP+ sees the ACC race heading into the season:

1. Clemson (8th nationally)

2. Miami (12th)

3. SMU (20th)

4. Louisville (24th)

5. Florida State (36th)

6. Duke (41st)

7. NC State (42nd)

8. Georgia Tech (44th)

9. Virginia Tech (46th)

10. Pittsburgh (47th)

11. North Carolina (54th)

12. Syracuse (56th)

13. Boston College (62nd)

14. Cal (65th)

15. Virginia (79th)

16. Wake Forest (81st)

17. Stanford (88th)

Nov 29, 2024; Athens, Georgia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets head coach Brent Key reacts with an official during the game against the Georgia Bulldogs during the first quarter at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Connelly broke each ACC team into three tiers: Conference and CFP contenders, a couple of breaks away from a run, and just looking for a path to 6-6. The Yellow Jackets fell into the second tier and here is how Connelly sees Georgia Tech heading into 2025.

"If you were watching Georgia Tech in 2024, the Yellow Jackets were probably doing something special. They played three top-10 teams and looked like a top-10 team against all three -- they upset No. 10 Florida State in Ireland to start the season (back when we thought that was an upset), then knocked No. 4 Miami from the unbeaten ranks with a 28-23 win in November and all but beat No. 6 Georgia during Rivalry Week, eventually falling 44-42 after 114 overtimes. (OK, it was eight OTs.) They otherwise went just 5-5, losing at Syracuse and Louisville, briefly falling apart when quarterback Haynes King injured his shoulder and losing a fun Birmingham Bowl against Vanderbilt.

Overall, they really weren't different than they were in Brent Key's first season at the helm.

Georgia Tech in 2023: 7-6, 65th in SP+ (50th offense, 86th defense, 68th special teams)

Georgia Tech in 2024: 7-6, 66th in SP+ (42nd offense, 79th defense, 104th special teams)

Still, making memories can pay off. Key capitalized on those big moments by signing a top-20 recruiting class and holding on to key players like King, running back Jamal Haynes, all-conference guard Keylan Rutledge and defensive tackle Jordan van den Berg. He also added all-Ivy League running back Malachi Hosley (Penn), maybe Florida International's two best players -- receivers Eric Rivers and Dean Patterson, who combined for 1,857 yards and 19 TDs -- and a number of exciting defenders, such as end Ronald Triplette (UTSA), tackles Matthew Alexander (UCF) and Akelo Stone (Ole Miss), cornerbacks Kelvin Hill (UAB) and Daiquan White (Eastern Michigan) and safeties Jyron Gilmore (Georgia State) and Cayman Spaulding (Tennessee Tech).

The defensive transfers were necessary, since only seven of the 19 defenders with 200-plus snaps return for new coordinator Blake Gideon. Tech hasn't had a top-50 defense, per SP+, since 2017, and since the Yellow Jackets allowed at least 31 points in five of six losses, it's clear the defense held them back in 2024 as well.

Injuries did too. Nineteen defenders started at least one game, and King not only missed two games, but he was limited in others. His ridiculously physical style will always make him an injury risk, but when he and Haynes are in the backfield, Tech will have a chance to beat any team it plays. There won't be as many marquee win opportunities -- the Jackets play only two teams projected in the top 40 (Clemson and Georgia) -- but if that results in more wins, period, I doubt Key will complain too much."

The schedule is favorable for Georgia Tech, as they only play one projected ACC opponent that ranks in the SP+ top 40. If they can stay healthy at the key positions, the defense has another year of improvement, and the transfers mesh well, this has the potential to be a special season for Georgia Tech.