Statistical Comparison & SP+ Prediction: Virginia

MatthewMcGavic

Before undertaking a three game stretch at home to finish the regular season, Georgia Tech has one more business trip to take care of. Here's how the Yellow Jackets stack up statistically against the Virginia Cavaliers, as well as their chances to come out of Charlottesville with a win:

Offensive Statistics:

Georgia Tech
Virginia

Total Offense

121st (299.5)

97th (364.3)

Passing Yards

124th (141.0)

41st (255.7)

Yards Per Completion

37th (13.12)

108th (10.75)

Rushing Yards

75th (158.5)

121st (108.7)

First Downs Gained

128th (128)

56th (189)

3rd Down Con. %

120th (32.1%)

42nd (42.5%)

4th Down Con. %

113th (36.4%)

37th (63.6%)

Red Zone Con. %

130th (55.6%)

62nd (84.4%)

Turnovers Lost

91st (14)

106th (16)

Interceptions Thrown

69th (7)

107th (10)

Fumbles Lost

84th (7)

65th (6)

Tackles For Loss Allowed

120th (7.88)

79th (6.22)

Sacks Allowed

110th (2.88)

118th (3.22)

Avg. Time of Possession

126th (26:32)

13th (33:27)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

Defensive Statistics:

Georgia Tech
Virginia

Total Defense

74th (405.5)

17th (310.1)

Passing Yards Allowed

20th (187.9)

22nd (189.6)

Rushing Yards Allowed

121st (217.6)

28th (120.6)

3rd Down Defensive %

102nd (43.9%)

29th (33.3%)

4th Down Defensive %

124th (76.9%)

49th (45.0%)

First Downs Allowed

60th (175)

27th (149)

Red Zone Defensive %

10th (70.3%)

32nd (78.3%)

Turnovers Gained

67th (12)

96th (10)

Interceptions Caught

51st (7)

76th (6)

Fumbles Recovered

66th (5)

83rd (4)

Sacks Per Game

100th (1.63)

5th (3.78)

TFL Per Game

96th (5.3)

13th (7.9)

Defensive Touchdowns

39th (1)

15th (2)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

Special Teams Statistics:

Georgia Tech
Virginia

Net Punting

100th (36.39)

78th (37.57)

Avg. Kickoff Return

58th (21.30)

1st (31.38)

Avg. Punt Return

114th (4.64)

79th (6.50)

Blocked Kicks

49th (3)

48th (1)

Blocked Punts

4th (2)

16th (1)

Field Goal Percentage

3-6

13-17

PAT Percentage

12-12

31-32

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

SP+ Prediction:

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Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Yellow Jackets have only a 16.01% chance to come out of Charlottesville with a win against the Hoos. According to SP+ ratings, Virginia is the 3rd toughest team that Tech will have faced so far this season, and 4th toughest overall. Going further, it predicts Georgia Tech to finish the season with a 3-9 record, with an "expected wins" value of 2.93. Heading into the rivalry game against the Georgia Bulldogs (3.03% chance to win), the Yellow Jackets have a 68.4% chance of sporting a 3-8 record, and a 22.54% chance of being 4-7.

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