Preview: Bulldogs offense looks to stay hot against frisky Dons
Of the handful of games that have been postponed this season, prioritizing which game to reschedule first was an easy choice for Mark Few. The WCC has the potential to send four teams dancing this March, including the San Francisco Dons, who currently sit as a 10-seed according to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. With 12 days off between games, Few knew he had to get USF back on the schedule ASAP.
For the Dons, the 2021-22 season has been a bounce-back campaign under third-year head coach Todd Golden. After bowing out to GU in the WCC semifinals two years ago, USF endured a major setback the following season, finishing below .500 for the first time since 2015. Projected to finish in the middle of the pack in the conference standings, expectations were not very high entering the new year.
Now, midway through January, the Dons are viewed by many as an NCAA tournament team with a rock-solid defense and an offense that can shoot the lights out.
Here’s three things to look out for in Thursday’s ballgame:
RAINING THREES
Despite mixed results in three seasons, the Dons’ offensive identity under Coach Golden has been consistent: shoot at will. With a group of wings who can create their own shot and find space in the defense, this year has been no exception. Through 18 games, the Dons rank inside the top-25 teams in the nation for 3-point field goals made and attempted.
The barrage from outside starts in the backcourt with preseason All-WCC first teamers, Jamaree Bouyea and Khalil Shabazz. While Bouyea is the primary ball-handler of the offense, both excel in isolation sets through penetration and finishing at the rim or rising up over the defense from deep. The duo combined for more than half of their team’s shot attempts against BYU last Saturday, including 14 of USF’s 23 3-point attempts.
On the perimeter, transfer Gabe Stefanini has played the Corey Kispert role for the Dons. At 6-foot-3 weighing 215 lbs., the junior from Italy makes up for a lack of speed with the strength to muscle his way through the lane if the outside shot is taken away. He can catch passes coming off screens and either attack the paint or pullup from deep, where he’s shooting 35.3% on just under four attempts a game.
The Don’s true marksman, however, comes off the bench. Leading the WCC in 3-point field percentage at 48.4%, Julian Rishwain has been a catch-and-shoot machine this season. Like Stefanini, the sophomore is adept at losing his defender on screens and manages to find open pockets in the defense on broken plays or second-chance opportunities.
After facing the red-hot Broncos last time out, the blueprint to slowing down USF’s offense remains the same for the Zags: take away space on the perimeter. Rasir Bolton and Andrew Nembhard excelled at hounding SCU’s guards off screens and forcing them to put the ball on the floor. The Dons have shown this season that they’ll live and die by the 3-pointer, evident by a 3-for-23 performance in their loss to BYU, so limiting open looks will be key to slowing the second-best offense in the WCC.
With the Zags lighting it up from behind the arc lately, including three straight games of 10 or more 3-pointers, expect both teams to establish a rhythm early on. Both Strawther and Bolton have led GU in that department this season, but with Nembhard regaining confidence, he isn’t afraid to take matters into his own hands as well.
OPPORTUNISTIC DEFENSE
Like the offense, USF’s defense has been a product of Coach Golden’s influence on the program. Before becoming the head coach, he spent a handful of seasons as the defensive coordinator under Kyle Smith. And while the statistics might not jump off the page, the Dons pestering style of defense can fluster just about any offense.
Of course, the Zags defense doesn’t benefit from high-possession ballgames, but the matchup between backcourts should be a fun one to watch.
For the Dons, Bouyea and Shabazz have been adept at capitalizing off lazy passes and ball control. Both will fight through screens and hassle point guards the moment they cross half court, making it difficult for other teams to set up their offense. Against BYU, Shabazz recorded four steals and helped the Dons score 15 points off the Cougars’ turnovers.
GU, who has prioritized taking care of the ball this season, will have to maintain that mental sharpness against the WCC’s leader in steals.
USF also received a boost to their low post defense in the form of Yauhen Massalski. The USD transfer has been one of the conference’s best interior defenders, averaging 2.3 blocks and 8.2 rebounds per game. Standing at 6-foot-9, he’s coming off a season-high five blocks against BYU, including a rejection against Caleb Lohner at the rim.
With a similar build to Patrick Tapé, it will be interesting to see how the Dons gameplan for Drew TImme and Chet Holmgren, two of the most efficient players in the paint this season. Holmgren’s ability to handle the ball has been a matchup nightmare for defenses this season, and it looks like that trend will continue against USF. And coming off back-to-back 30-point games, Timme is no easy cover as well.
CAN THE ZAGS KEEP IT GOING?
Is it even fair to say the Zags look like they’re in midseason form? Every game has turned into a scavenger hunt through record books to see what milestone Mark Few’s squad broke or is about to break that night. Few programs in the history of the sport have enjoyed this level of efficiency on a consistent basis.
And it’s all happening under uncontrollable circumstances. Teams are living week-to-week at this point due to COVID-19 outbreaks, as coaches make mad scrambles to fill voids in their schedules with available opponents. Game planning and strategizing has never been more difficult, let alone the uncertainty and risks that come with playing during a global pandemic. It’s a true testament to GU’s organizational culture that the team has maintained a level of focus and intensity through the process.
Against one of the conference’s top foes, that mental toughness will be put to the test. USF has a history of giving the Bulldogs their best shot, especially in the first half. But don’t expect GU’s stars to back down from a good fight.
The pick: Zags 93, Dons 75
