Jay Bilas Makes Disappointing Projection For Houston Cougars in March Madness

The March Madness brackets are officially in full swing. The bracket picks for the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament are always a hotly contested debate around this time.

Whether you have gone for a Cinderella or gone with the No. 1 seed, one constant has remained in the March Madness bracket over the past half-decade. That is the Houston Cougars. They are now one of the biggest names in the sport, given the consistency that the Cougars show year in and year out.

While Houston is still looking for its first national championship, the program under coach Kelvin Sampson has completely turned around. The Cougars made it to the title game last season and were under a minute away from winning it all. Houston is always a factor since officially announcing its presence with a 2021 Final Four appearance.

Injury luck has not favored the Cougars at times, but UH has always been a Final Four and title threat over the past few seasons. That has been shown with the oddsmakers and brackets usually picking Houston to make a deep run. The Cougars have made it to six straight Sweet 16's and are the epitome of consistency.

ESPN analyst Jay Bilas always releases his detailed bracket picks and he was incredibly accurate last season. Bilas predicted Houston to the Final Four and losing the national championship to Florida. This is what he thinks the Cougars will do this time around.

Bilas Not on the Houston Train

Houston Cougars basketball — Mar 13, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; Houston Cougars guard Milos Uzan (7) brings the ball up court during the first half against the Kansas Jayhawks at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

Houston is the No. 2 seed in the South region this season, and here is Bilas' prediction on the Cougars.

As expected, he picked Houston over No. 15 Idaho Vandals in the first round and said, "The Cougars have Kingston Flemings, one of the best freshmen in the country and a certain lottery pick. Houston's defense is too good for an upset pick here."

Bilas has the Cougars facing No. 7 seed Saint Mary's in the second round instead of a Texas rivalry reignited against the No. 10 Texas A&M Aggies, who are a popular upset pick.

He has Houston beating Saint Mary's to head to a seventh straight Sweet 16.

"Houston can play against fast or slow teams -- and can match Saint Mary's physical, slower pace. The Gaels can win, especially if the Cougars shoot poorly, but I favor Houston," Bilas said.

In what might be surprising to Coogs fans, that is the end of the road for Houston in March Madness, according to Bilas. In his bracket, Houston faces No. 3 seed Illinois in the Sweet 16. A key note is that both the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight are unofficial home games for Houston, with the South Regional at Toyota Center in downtown Houston.

Even when playing just four miles from the UH Campus, Bilas has Houston losing to the Fighting Illini and not advancing to the Regional Final.

"Illinois has the better offense, and Houston has the better defense. I am taking offense in this one, but it's an agonizing choice. Take the Illini, but understand the Cougars are fully capable of winning," Bilas said.

He admits Houston has a good shot of winning, but isn't confident enough to pick them. Illinois has been a popular pick to make a deep run with the best offense in the country. It won't be easy for Houston to beat this team, as well as a potential rematch with Florida is waiting.

It will be disappointing all around in H-Town if Bilas' prediction comes true. He was right about Houston last time. The Cougars would like to prove him wrong.