Five Things That Will Decide Houston vs. Georgia Southern
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The No. 25 Houston Cougars face the Georgia Southern Eagles in Week 4, looking to return to the win column after a disappointing road loss to the No. 11 Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Here are five things that will determine if Houston can avoid an upset:
The Turnover Margin
Georgia Southern is a 17.5-point underdog heading into this game against Houston, meaning it will need to win the turnover margin to have a chance.
The Eagles coming out and dominating would be unrealistic, so they need to force a couple of turnovers to put pressure on the Cougars. Houston has turned the ball over three times so far, with two against the Oregon State Beavers in Week 1 and one last week against the Red Raiders.
So seeing Houston make a lot of mistakes in this one is unlikely, but for an underdog like the Eagles to have a fighting chance, they must capitalize in key areas like turnovers. This works both ways, too: for Houston to blow out Georgia Southern (which it would love to do), it needs to keep the ball in the offense's hands.
The Pass Defense of Houston
Houston ranks second-worst in the Big 12 thus far, allowing 253.3 passing yards per game. Worse, this remains true despite a Week 2 whooping of FCS opponent Southern (77-6).
Oregon State's quarterback Braden Atkinson threw for 376 yards against the Houston secondary, while last week, quarterback Will Hammond had a big day, throwing for 257 yards. Houston has been great in most categories, but the pass defense has not been one of them.
Plus, Hammond and Co. converted several long down-and-distances, including a 3rd-and-12 and a 3rd-and-18. In both situations, the Cougars' defense knew Texas Tech would pass but still allowed big plays and conversions. The Red Raiders went 6/10 on 3rd down and most of those downs weren't short distances by any means.
This shows how much Houston's secondary has struggled. The Cougars do face a much worse opponent in Georgia Southern, but allowing quarterback Max Johnson to put up great numbers invites trouble - unnecessary trouble. Houston will want to win in the trenches, but excelling here would be great to see, and it would shut down any chance of an upset.
The Running Game of Houston
Houston will certainly look to establish itself on the ground in this one, much like it did against Southern with 388 rushing yards. Expecting those kinds of numbers on the ground is unrealistic, but Houston would still love to see 200+ rushing yards.
Not only is that a good thing for the future, but it would also be detrimental to the upset hopeful Eagles. Getting the edge in time of possession is one way of crushing the Eagles.
Running the ball well also helps an offense a lot. First, it makes the offense less prone to turnovers. The QB doesn't need to throw the ball as much, which allows a team like Houston to win the turnover margin while keeping the ball out of the Eagles' hands.
As time goes on, running the ball well will also open up the passing game, as the Eagles will try to put more guys up front and play more aggressively to stop the run. Houston needs to establish itself here for these many reasons. If the Cougars can, then the Eagles don't stand a chance.
The Running Game of Georgia Southern
Really, the same things that apply to Houston's running game apply to Georgia Southern. In Week 1, the Western Michigan Broncos came extremely close to pulling off a 12-7 upset against the Michigan Wolverines (and, ahem, should've won).
Why did the Broncos come so close? Well, because the Wolverines practically didn't have the ball. Western Michigan had the ball for 40 minutes, meaning it held it for twice as long as Michigan did. The run game wasn't even that good with only 132 yards on 46 carries (2.9 AVG).
But the Broncos' careful, clean play, along with forcing three turnovers (and not turning the ball over once), let them dominate Michigan. Such a strange game in which a group of six team dominates another ranked team, let alone a Big Ten team, doesn't happen very often at all. But the run game was the key for Western Michigan and will be the key for Georgia Southern as well, while also forcing turnovers.
So far, the Eagles have actually been the worst running team in the Sun Belt, averaging just 122 yards on the ground in three games. But even with these terrible stats, they have no choice: to have a chance and avoid being dominated, the Eagles must find a way to run the ball. And of course, Houston, with the best run defense in the Big 12 so far, must stop the run to ensure that, well, the Georgia Southern doesn't get a chance.
The Response by Houston After a Crushing Loss
The final thing that will determine this game will be Houston's response after a crushing road loss last week. Taking such a loss that is important in the conference and important overall for the season is potentially depressing.
How Willie Fritz and his Cougars respond to this loss will be huge in this one. Perhaps Houston comes back hungrier and blows Georgia Southern out of the water. Or maybe the Cougars do the opposite and play an uninspired, ugly brand of football.
There is no way of telling how Houston responds to a loss until the game is played, but that will be huge in deciding who wins this one.
With a potentially rough road ahead, Houston must win this game. While Georgia Southern has a very low chance of stunning Houston, the Cougars must be ready. Winning the turnover margin, defending the pass, and dominating in the trenches would be a nice response for the Cougars after a devastating loss.
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Born in Utah, raised in Nebraska, and now living in the Northeast, Tyler Crum is a lifelong sports fan with a passion for college football, college basketball, Major League Baseball, and hockey. He attends the University of New Hampshire, where he is majoring in history. His work has appeared with Last Word on Sports, Utah on Ice, and Sports Illustrated. When he is not writing or watching sports, Tyler can usually be found reading a book on military history.
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