ESPN's BPI Analytics Predict Odds of Illinois Basketball at Michigan

The numbers have been crunched, and ESPN came to a (somewhat) decisive conclusion about Sunday's matchup

Michigan Wolverines center Vladislav Goldin (50) drives the lane against Rutgers Scarlet Knights defense during the first half of the NCAA basketball game at Crisler Arena in Ann Arbor, Mich., Thursday, February 27 2025. | Kimberly P. Mitchell / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

No. 15 Michigan (22-6, 14-3) has been something of a surprise to the college basketball world this season, working itself all the way into a first-place tie in the Big Ten standings with March just one day away.

And although ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) has been impressively accurate in predicting the outcome of Division I basketball games, the Wolverines have “beaten the odds” quite a few times.

One night, it was taking down then-No. 22 UCLA on the road in convincing fashion (94-75), despite the Bruins being favored by ESPN’s metrics.

On another occasion, it was a 67-64 win over then-No. 11 Wisconsin, in which the Wolverines were given just a 34.8 percent chance of winning.

All season long, Dusty May’s squad has pulled off the unexpected – to the point that it has now become almost expected.

But when the Wolverines welcome Illinois (18-11, 10-8 Big Ten) into the Crisler Center on Sunday (2:45 p.m. CT, CBS), they won’t need to defy the odds. ESPN's BPI gives the home squad a 59.0 percent chance of prevailing.

Fortunately for the Illini, they have a bit of experience shocking the prognosticators themselves.

Just ask Oregon, which hosted Illinois back in early January. Despite being ranked No. 9 in the country at the time and entering the game with a 57.1 percent probability of successfully defending their home court, the Ducks were hammered 109-77 by the Illini – good for the largest loss for a top-10 team at home in NCAA history.

Played with something to prove. pic.twitter.com/weSYOIU08A

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) February 26, 2025

Pulling off another Big Ten road upset may seem a bit too much to ask for the Illini – especially without Morez Johnson Jr. (broken wrist) – but it is by no means out of their reach. A better performance on the glass (they have lost the rebounding battle in three straight games) and landing just a few more of their long-range attempts might be enough to swing the odds in Illinois' favor and prove the metrics wrong in Ann Arbor.

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