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Illinois Fighting Illini coach Brad Underwood speaks during a press conference ahead of the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena.

The No. 3-seeded Illini face an upset-minded No. 11 VCU team that defeated North Carolina in overtime in the first round

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The No. 3-seeded Illini face an upset-minded No. 11 VCU team that defeated North Carolina in overtime in the first round

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Illinois Fighting Illini forward David Mirkovic (0) shoots against the Penn Quakers during the 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena.

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The freshman forward Mirkovic totaled 29 points and 17 rebounds in a dominant win over Fran McCaffery's Quakers

Feb 20, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Shauna Green during the third quarter against the UCLA Bruins at Pauley Pavilion presented by Wescom. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

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Shauna Green has the seventh-seeded Illini nearing uncharted territory, but they will have to go through the No. 10 Buffaloes to get there

Mar 19, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts to a play against the Penn Quakers in the first half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

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The Illini are the favorite – and a heavy one at that – but they're vulnerable against this scorching-hot Rams unit

Mar 19, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood instructs his team against the Penn Quakers in the first half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

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The third-seeded Illini are expected to take down the 11th-seeded Rams, but how confident are the metrics in Illinois?

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Illinois gets a dangerous but manageable Round of 32 test against VCU, with a Sweet 16 berth on the line in Greenville, South Carolina

Mar 19, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini center Tomislav Ivisic (13) goes to the basket against Penn Quakers center Michelangelo Oberti (33) in the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

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Ivisic, the Illini's sweet-shooting big man, has been quiet in recent games but is in line for a strong outing on Saturday against the Rams

Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) is defended by Penn Quakers guard AJ Levine (0) Thursday, March 19, 2026, during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament first round game at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina.

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If the Illini (25-8) have learned all their hard lessons, the Rams (27-7) – as dangerous as they are – will be a footnote in their 2026 NCAA Tournament run

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The Illini, back in the NCAA Tournament for the second consecutive year, hope to take another step forward against a solid Colorado squad

Mar 19, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kylan Boswell (4) dribbles the ball against the Penn Quakers in the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

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Boswell reminded the country what he's capable of defensively against Penn in the first round. Ideally for Illinois, its a sign of what's ahead.

Mar 19, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Penn Quakers guard AJ Levine (0) dribbles past Illinois Fighting Illini center Tomislav Ivisic (13) in the second half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

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The Illini opened March Madness with a blowout win over Penn, and social media sounded off about it in the aftermath

Mar 19, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward David Mirkovic (0) dribbles the ball against the Penn Quakers in the first half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

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And a freshman – two, in fact – would lead the Illini in an offensive avalanche that overwhelmed the undermanned Quakers on Thursday

Mar 8, 2026; College Park, Maryland, USA; ]Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) looks to pass during the first half against the Maryland Terrapins at Xfinity Center. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

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Wagler was a top performer in the Big Ten this season, but where does he rank among players in the Big Dance?

Illinois Fighting Illini coach Brad Underwood against the Indiana Hoosiers at State Farm Center.

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VCU is a popular upset pick as a No. 11 seed, and North Carolina is without All-American forward Caleb Wilson

Mar 8, 2026; College Park, Maryland, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward David Mirkovic (0) celebrates with center Zvonimir Ivisic (44) during the second half against the Maryland Terrapins at Xfinity Center. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

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The Illini have been playing at less than their best lately, but one top metric gives odds of them winning it all that may surprise you

Mar 18, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini center Tomislav Ivisic (13) shoots the ball during a practice session ahead of the first round of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

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The Illini (23-7, 14-5 Big Ten) and Terrapins (11-19, 4-15) are headed in different directions, but anything can happen in March

Penn Quakers forward Ethan Roberts (23) dribbles against the Villanova Wildcats at Xfinity Mobile Arena.

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The absence of Quakers leading scorer Ethan Roberts, who is dealing with a concussion, stacks the deck further in favor of the Illini

Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood against the Indiana Hoosiers at State Farm Center.

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The Illini begin March Madness Thursday night as a No. 3 seed against No. 14 seed Penn from the Ivy League.

Feb 4, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood prepares his game plan before tip-off against the Northwestern Wildcats at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

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These five numbers reveal what to expect from the Illini in March – and may determine how far they can go

Illinois wing Andrej Stojakovic (2) drives on Wisconsin's John Blackwell (25) in the Illini's 91-88 overtime loss to the Badgers in last week's Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals at the United Center in Chicago.

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The Illini look like a slam dunk to clip the Quakers and move on to the second round, but they would do well to beware the upset gods of March

Dec 9, 2025; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts to a call during the first half against the Ohio State Buckeyes Value City Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

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The pundits, like the rest of the country, have made their brackets. Here is how far a few of them expect the Illini to go.

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After the Illini chased All Wright a year ago, should they go after the Xavier transfer again this time around?

Dec 13, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini center Tomislav Ivisic (13) reacts after scoring during the second half against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

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The Illini can make a deep run in the NCAAs, but their ability to do so is heavily dependent on these three players

Mar 13, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Wisconsin Badgers guard Nick Boyd (2) defends against Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

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The Illini limped into March, but they still are built to be one of the last teams standing at the Big Dance

Nov 19, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood yells to his team during the second half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

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Underwood has a volatile March Madness track record. Can he and the Illini combine consistency with high upside to make a deep run in 2026?