ESPN’s Matchup Predictor Favors One Side in Illinois vs. Missouri Showdown

The 18th-ranked Illini face a 10-2 Tigers team in St. Louis on Monday night. ESPN's analytics are favoring one squad. Here's why.

Dec 29, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood acknowledges the fans before a game with the Chicago State Cougars at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

No. 18 Illinois (8-3) faces Missouri (10-2) on Monday night (7 p.m. CT, FS1) in St. Louis for the annual Braggin’ Rights clash. On the heels of a wrenching 83-80 loss against Nebraska in Champaign, the Illini are seeking to right the ship. 

No. 18 pic.twitter.com/FeG02y7Hhj

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) December 15, 2025

Given that they will have more than a week of preparation time for the Tigers and, in turn, ample time to reset and put together a well-thought-out game plan, the Illini should be well-positioned to get back on the right side of the win column against their border-state rival.

ESPN’s analytics predict Illinois-Missouri

Dec 6, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood yells to his bench against the Tennessee Volunteers during the first half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Based purely on each club’s respective record, it may seem that the Tigers are underrated, and should perhaps even be the favorite heading into this matchup. But that’s not exactly the case. Per ESPN’s matchup predictor, Illinois has a 68.9 percent chance of snagging its third straight win over Missouri – and for good reason.

Why the Illini are expected to take down the Tigers

Dec 7, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Missouri Tigers head coach Dennis Gates reacts during the second half against the Kansas Jayhawks at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Missouri, despite its 10-2 record, hasn’t exactly been impressive through 12 games. Sure, Dennis Gates and his crew have taken care of business against a variety of mid-major squads, but they have faced only three power-conference teams to date.

The first of those meetings – an 83-60 bashing of Minnesota – appeared to be a statement win of sorts at the time. But considering the Golden Gophers’ lackluster performance since (4-4 in their past eight games, despite facing five mid-major teams), that triumph was a bare-minimum accomplishment in hindsight.

Then a five-point loss to a mediocre-at-best Notre Dame team, which was followed up by a 20-point falter against its rival to the west – Kansas – didn’t do anything to convince the country that Missouri is legit. 

But this Monday, the Tigers will get a prime opportunity to fix that, and prove that they are an NCAA Tournament contender by collecting a top-25 win vs. an Illinois team many believe to be a potential Final Four threat.

That task will be much easier said than done. Missouri’s defense is, to put it mildly, bad. More accurately, it’s really bad. Featuring one of the worst Power 5 defensive units in the country (No. 105 defense, per KenPom), the Tigers have an unenviable – and likely impossible – chore: slow down Illinois’ explosive offense (rated No. 3 in the nation).

We know the Tigers can score points, though, and even if they give up 100, the Illini’s recent defensive woes suggest it’s not outlandish to think Missouri has a shot at cracking triple digits itself on Monday night.

Even given those circumstances, the harsh reality for Mizzou is that it doesn’t have enough pieces to truly compete with Illinois. Without a scorching-hot night from deep – which, it must be said, isn't out of the realm of possibility for a club connecting on 37.4 percent of its threes – the Tigers likely simply lack the manpower to hang with the Illini.