ESPN's Matchup Predictor Reveals Favorite for Illinois vs. Tennessee

Despite how Illinois hoops fans currently feel, the sky is not falling. The Illini, now 6-2 and currently ranked No. 14 in the country, have a pair of blemishes on their record – to two of the best teams in the country: No. 12 Alabama and No. 5 UConn.

That contest against the Crimson Tide easily could have gone Illinois’ way, and everyone would be singing a different tune – even after the falter against the Huskies.

Nevertheless, 6-2 is the reality. But with a handful of Quad 1 opportunities awaiting the Illini, it’s quite possible Brad Underwood’s club will be in a spectacular spot just 10 days from now.

First up, though: No. 13 Tennessee in Nashville. Although the contest feels like a must-win for Illinois (and it arguably is), it is undoubtedly a must-win for the Volunteers, who have lost two straight games to unranked opponents.

In their defense, those aforementioned missteps against clubs outside of the top 25 just so happen to be a Kansas team now ranked No. 21 – and that took UConn to the brink Tuesday night – and an extremely tough Syracuse squad (in a game contested at Syracuse).

ESPN's matchup predictor pegs favorite in Illinois-Tennessee

Nov 11, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts during the second half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Regardless, the Illini and Volunteers are both feeling pressure to score a marquee win. So ... who walks away with this one? Per ESPN’s analytics, Tennessee is favored to pull out the victory in its home state.

The matchup predictor gives Rick Barnes and his unit a 55.0 percent chance of prevailing – meaning, the margin is slight and an Illinois win would hardly be an upset.

Is it a fair assessment?

Nov 28, 2025; New York, New York, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kylan Boswell (4) reacts after getting fouled in the second half against the UConn Huskies at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images | Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

It’s hard not to look at Tennessee riding a two-game losing streak, both of which were nail-biters, and not feel as though the Vols are spiraling and poised for yet another loss. Then again, to Barnes – a hammer of a head coach – every unmotivated or poorly disciplined team looks like a nail. Chances are, he'll have the Vols ready Saturday.

On the flip side, despite the loss to UConn, Illinois seemingly discovered its secret sauce … on defense. Meanwhile, the Illini offense remains a headache-inducing, dizzying mess. Sometimes it’s excellent. Other nights, not so much.

And considering Illinois is set to face one of the top defensive units in the country, it feels as though Saturday is going to be the latter situation. Expect a defensive showdown, but given Illinois’ overall offensive firepower and talent advantage (nearly) across the board, it’s difficult not to give the Illini a leg up in this one – even with the Nashville crowd at Tennessee’s back.