ESPN Matchup Predictor Favors Illinois Over VCU in NCAA Tournament Round of 32

After taking care of business against 14th-seeded Penn in the Round of 64, Illinois now has a date set with 11th-seeded VCU out of the Atlantic 10 Conference on Saturday night (6:50 p.m. CT, CBS) in Greenville, South Carolina.

The Rams, who earned the auto bid from the Atlantic 10 after winning the league tournament, have won 17 of their past 18, with their lone loss coming at St. Louis – a squad that just blasted Georgia by 25 points on Thursday night.

The Big Dance is all about peaking at the right time, and if the 17 out of 18 victories doesn’t send the message that VCU is doing just that, then the Rams’ overtime victory against North Carolina (an 82-78 overtime win against the sixth seed) certainly did.

Meanwhile, Illinois, which is just 5-5 over its past 10 games, appears to be back in rhythm after surpassing the century mark against the Ivy League champs, cruising to a 105-70 opening-round victory.

ESPN’s matchup predictor tabs favorite for Illinois vs. VCU Round of 32

Illinois Fighting Illini guard Andrej Stojakovic (2) reacts after making a shot Thursday, March 19, 2026, during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament first round game against the Penn Quakers at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. Illinois Fighting Illini won 105-70. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

So what exactly do the metrics predict for Illinois vs. VCU on Saturday night? Per ESPN’s matchup predictor, the Illini are the favorite – and by a fairly solid margin. The analytical tool gives Brad Underwood’s club an 82.4 percent chance of overcoming VCU to punch its ticket to the Sweet 16.

Is ESPN’s prediction for Illinois-VCU a fair assessment?

Mar 19, 2026; Greenville, SC, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts to a play against the Penn Quakers in the first half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Again, momentum is extremely important in the tournament. And the advanced numbers rarely catch an unquantifiable factor such as the momentum of a club – a department VCU undoubtedly has the advantage in.

But that’s essentially where the advantages end for the Rams. The Illini are taller, stronger, more athletic and otherwise simply better. Then again, better doesn’t always translate to a win on any given night in March.

VCU has bucket-getters – namely Terrence Hill Jr., who just exploded for 34 points against UNC – and has won a number of tight games. The Rams have a club that, despite what the metrics say (although they rank No. 42 in KenPom), is built to find success in the NCAA Tournament.

Regardless, the talent and size disparity is glaring. In the Rams’ two losses against high-major opponents this year, they were dominated on the glass, losing both outings on the boards by 14 (against NC State and Vanderbilt). Phil Martelli Jr. is a fantastic coach, but his X’s and O’s likely won’t be enough to overcome the Illini’s physical attributes and all-around offensive ability.