ESPN's Matchup Predictor Tabs Illinois as Shockingly Heavy Favorites vs. Rutgers

The Illini have clearly been the better team to date, but the Scarlet Knights hardly even have a shot in the dark, per ESPN's analytics

Nov 23, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood during the first half against the Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

The Big Ten is known as the premier conference in college basketball (and, at this point, college football, too – but that’s a discussion for another time), as each outing is an all-out dog fight. No win comes easy in league play.

Even the lowly Big Ten clubs have challenged some of the powerhouses – notably, Penn State played Michigan State and Illinois within single digits – as is typically the case on a year-to-year basis.

ESPN metric predicts Illinois-Rutgers Big Ten clash

Dec 2, 2025; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights head coach Steve Pikiell reacts during the first half against the Purdue Boilermakers at Jersey Mike's Arena. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Yet when Illinois meets Rutgers in Champaign on Thursday (7:30 p.m. CT, BTN), the Scarlet Knights aren't even being given a puncher’s chance – at least according to ESPN’s matchup predictor.

The metric gives the Illini a mind-boggling 96.8 percent chance of successfully defending their home floor. For some additional context, Illinois had a 98.2 percent chance of taking down Jackson State, a 97.4 percent chance of beating UT Rio Grande Valley and – get this – a 96.6 percent chance of beating Florida Gulf Coast.

Put simply, ESPN’s analytical tool gave the mid-major Eagles a greater chance of upsetting Illinois than it sees for Rutgers heading into Thursday's game.

Why are the Illini such heavy favorites?

Illinois basketball gets hype after building a lead against Penn State inside The Palestra on Jan. 3, 2026. | Taj Falconer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Well, metrics are considered unbiased for a reason. The analytics don’t put much stock into what conference a team plays in, and the numbers don’t care about brand names (not that Rutgers is exactly a prestigious hoops program) or vibes.

With that in mind, it’s quite clear why the Scarlet Knights aren’t expected to challenge the Illini. The top win for Steve Pikiell and his crew came against UNLV, and its resume is best characterized by an unsightly 13-point blemish by way of Central Connecticut.

But it's worth noting that Rutgers has battled and stayed within striking distance of a couple of stellar teams – including then-No. 1 Purdue (eventually falling by 16). The Scarlet Knights lost by just five against Notre Dame and actually carried a four-point lead into the break against Ohio State, before falling by seven.

Still, there’s no way around it: This is an extremely down season for Rutgers, which is facing the unenviable task of traveling to Illinois in an attempt to nab its first-ever win in Champaign.

No. 16 pic.twitter.com/DC5AAmXUeN

— Illinois Men's Basketball (@IlliniMBB) January 5, 2026

Perhaps giving the Scarlet Knights just a 3.2 percent chance to do that is a bit of a disservice to their collective ability. That said, in the 2025-26 season, Rutgers has yet to show a good reason why that number should be any higher.