Illinois Basketball No. 3 in AP Preseason Poll – Should the Illini Be Even Higher?

The 2026-27 preseason AP poll was released on Monday, with Illinois landing at No. 3 in the country – trailing only No. 1 Florida and No. 2 Duke. UConn, which knocked off the Illini in the Final Four last season and is on the docket in early December, was slotted at No. 4, while Arizona rounded out the top five.

But there's a case to be made that the pollsters got it wrong.

🚨 FIRST AP POLL OF THE 2026-27 SEASON 🤩

1. Florida
2. Duke
3. Illinois
4. UConn
5. Arizona
6. Michigan State
7. Texas
8. Tennessee
9. Virginia
10. Houston
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) October 19, 2026

Illinois basketball lands at No. 3 in the 2026-27 preseason AP Poll

Apr 4, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts against the Connecticut Huskies in the second half during a semifinal of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Between Illinois' roster retention, its new additions and the residual heat of Illinois’ Final Four run in 2026, the Illini enter this season with sky-high expectations. We’ve heard it from coach Brad Underwood all offseason. Now we’ve heard it from the national media.

It had been over two decades since Illinois basketball earned a top-five preseason ranking in the AP poll (2004-2005 season). And not since 2001 had the Illini earned a top-three ranking. Both of those droughts were ended Monday.

How predictive is the AP poll of future success?

Last year, Purdue was No. 1 in the preseason poll. Houston was No. 2, Florida was No. 3 and UConn was No. 4. All of those clubs would go on to earn top-two seeds in the NCAA Tournament.

Of the top eight teams (all the No. 1s and No. 2s) in the NCAA Tournament in 2025-26, each – without fail – was featured in the preseason AP poll. In fact, all were found in the preseason top 16.

On the flip side, four of the top 10 teams in the preseason poll would earn no higher than 5 seeds (although none were worse than 7 seeds). So if last season is any indicator, a ranking near the top of the preseason AP poll doesn’t guarantee success. At the same time, the correlation with postseason success was pretty strong.

Should Illinois be ranked higher in the 2026-27 preseason AP poll?

Florida has been a No. 1 seed in back-to-back NCAA Tournaments. It won the title in 2025. It returns four players from its national championship team – all of whom played key roles. When it comes to experience, talent and proof of product, it doesn’t get better than the Gators.

As for Duke, it’s just another year for the Blue Devils – which means they’re really, really good yet again. Jon Scheyer’s backcourt should be the best in the country. He has four guards who would start on any other team in college basketball.

Duke also has a shutdown wing in Dame Sarr – remember him, Illini fans? – and a dominant frontcourt presence in Patrick Ngongba. Oh, and did we forget the projected No. 1 pick for the 2028 NBA Draft?

Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje is 7-foot-2, has a buttery-smooth stroke and dunks everything around the rim. He’ll be a household name in college hoops soon enough, and it’s patently unfair that Scheyer gets two years of his services.

That's a long-winded way of saying "no." Illinois is poised for its best year in decades – which says a lot on the heels of a Final Four – but, for now, it doesn’t belong above Florida or Duke in the polls.

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