Illinois Inexplicably Drops in ESPN's Updated Bracketology From Joe Lunardi

The Illini, who won their lone contest (Big Ten victory on the road against Penn State) since Lunardi's last update, dropped in his most recent edition

Dec 6, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood yells to his team against the Tennessee Volunteersduring the first half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Illinois’ win over Penn State at The Palestra was anything but flawless. A horrid shooting night and a stagnant offensive performance – specifically when freshman guard Keaton Wagler was off the floor – characterized the whole affair.

Defensively, the Illini were fairly stout, but they gave up far too many second-chance opportunities to the Nittany Lions – who parlayed 14 offensive rebounds into 16 second-chance points. 

But to steal a win on the road – technically, the game was played in neutral-site Philadelphia – against a Big Ten opponent is an accomplishment in itself. (It was just lowly Penn State, you say? Tell that to Michigan, which squeaked by the Nittany Lions by two on Tuesday night.)

In a college basketball season of more than 30 games, it’s inevitable that a two-hour window will overlap here and there when the shots simply don’t fall – no matter how open the looks are. That happened on Saturday, yet the Illini still triumphed.

That's glass half full. The glass-half-empty perspective goes something like this: putting up 73 points on 39.3 percent shooting against a Penn State team that entered the game outside of the top 200 in defensive efficiency (per KenPom) is embarrassing. And as a team that prides itself on controlling the glass, giving up 14 offensive rebounds to the Nittany Lions is entirely unacceptable.

Where Illinois landed in ESPN's Joe Lunardi's latest bracketology

Dec 13, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood reacts to a call during the second hal against the Nebraska Cornhuskersf at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Perhaps ESPN’s Joe Lunardi is a pessimist, as that latter line of rationale could be the only possible explanation for his decision in Tuesday’s edition of Bracketology. In it, he dropped the Illini a seed line, moving them down from a three seed to a four seed.

Since Lunardi's previous update, Illinois has played exactly one game – against Penn State. Were the Illini really exposed that badly in Philly? In any case, they have two full months to bolster their resume, and the Big Ten schedule provides plenty of prime opportunities: In the next 32 days alone, the Illini have road meetings at No. 19 Iowa, No. 5 Purdue, No. 10 Nebraska – a key chance at vengeance – and No. 12 Michigan State.

Split those contests and Illinois may find itself sitting firmly as a three seed. Win three out of four and the Illini are suddenly a borderline two seed. But until they prove themselves with a few more statement victories, it appears they will be stuck as a four – an excellent “consolation” prize for the time being.

Every Big Ten team in Joe Lunardi’s bracketology for ESPN

Mar 5, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Purdue Boilermakers head coach Matt Painter and Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Brad Underwood chat before the start of the game at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Ohio State (No. 11 seed)
Indiana (No. 10)
UCLA (No. 9)
USC (No. 8)
Iowa (No. 6)
Michigan State (No. 4)
Illinois (No. 4)
Nebraska (No. 3)
Purdue (No. 2)
Michigan (No. 1)