No. 23 Illinois at No. 18 Iowa: Three In The Key Preview & Prediction

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. -- "From Chicago, Ayo Dosunmu"

Despite not be honored by Illinois Sunday, the underlying thought that will persist throughout this regular-season finale is those four words from the State Farm Center public address announcer.

Dosunmu is a first-team All-Big Ten candidate averaging 20.2 points and shooting 55.6 percent from the field over the last five games after returning to the lineup. The on-court leader of this Illini program returned to college basketball for his sophomore season for what he called "unfinished business" and after tonight, it is more than assumed business will be over in Champaign for arguably the most important Illini signee since Dee Brown over 15 years ago. Dosunmu is averaging 18.1 points, 4.4 rebounds and 3.6 assists over his last 14 games and among those appearances, Dosunmu has scored at least 15 points 12 times and has been the Illini’s leading scorer nine times.

When asked how he'd describe coaching the 6-foot-5 guard, who has arguably done more to change the current projections of Illini basketball, third-year head coach Brad Underwood described it as "a blessing".

"It's fun to coach guys that work as hard as he works," Underwood said. "Ayo is a unique guy. There are very few social habits because his life is basketball. You love that commitment and dedication. He believes in the University of Illinois, his coaches and we'll see where that goes from there."

This game will absolutely be emotional for the four senior players (Andres Feliz, Kipper Nichols, Samson Oladimeji and Tyler Underwood) but also for Dosunmu and his large group of supporters that includes close family and friends from Chicago. It will also be a battle for the No. 4 seed at the Big Ten Conference tournament slated to start next week. By getting the four-seed, the team will get the double-bye into the quarterfinal round and therefore will only have to win three games to earn the automatic bid for the NCAA Tournament.

Underwood's advice to Dosunmu before this regular season finale?

"Just do what you do man," Underwood said.

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Game 31: No. 18 Iowa at No. 23 Illinois

Date/Time/Place: Sunday, March 8, 2020: 6 p.m. CST, State Farm Center, Champaign, Ill.

Capacity: 15,544

Records: Iowa 20-10, 11-8 in Big Ten; 23-10, 10-10 in Big Ten Conference in 2018-19. Illinois 20-10, 12-7 in Big Ten; 12-21, 7-13 in Big Ten Conference in 2018-19.

Line: Illinois by 3.5

Series Notes: Illinois leads the all-time series 85-76 but Iowa holds a current five-game winning streak. However, Illinois leads the series in Champaign 62-17. Iowa has won three of the last four meetings at the State Farm Center, including its last visit on Jan. 11, 2018 (104-87 in overtime).

TV: BTN - Kevin Kugler (PBP), Shon Morris (analyst), Olivia Dekker (Sideline)

Radio (Illinois): Brian Barnhart (PBP), Deon Thomas (analyst) - The broadcast can be heard live on TuneIn online radio, Sirius/XM 84 and at FightingIllini.com.

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Before every game of the 2019-20 season, we take a look at three things you’ll want to watch for after the tip.

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1) Can Illinois score enough points?

Iowa is 13-0 this season when holding opponents to 69 points or fewer. The Hawkeyes are 14-3 when outrebounding their opponents this season. In the loss at Iowa City earlier this season, Illini senior guard Andres Feliz put Illinois up 62-61 at the four-minute mark. Crunch time belonged to the home team, as the Hawkeyes rolled off nine unanswered, with the pivotal points coming on 3-pointers by Connor McCaffery and Luka Garza with the shotclock expiring. Illinois managed just one basket in the last four minutes. This kind of offensive lull simply can't happen against the Big Ten Conference's best offensive team.

During Illinois’ seven-game win streak from Jan. 5-30, the Illini defense held opponents to an average of 57.7 points on less than 37% shooting, including just 28% from 3-point range. Five of the opponents were held to 62 points or fewer, with no team exceeding 71. Those defensive numbers slipped afterward, as Illinois gave up an average of 72.3 points on 48.6% shooting and 41.5% from three, leading to an 0-4 mark. The Illini found their defensive tenacity in the trip to Penn State to snap the skid and continued it into March, allowing 61.8 points on 40% from the field and 31.4% from three during its most recent four-game winning streak.

2) Can Luka Garza be contained?

The Hawkeyes are led by All-America candidate Luka Garza. Garza is looking to become the sixth Hawkeye to average 22+ points per game and first in 49 years since Fred Brown averaged 27.6 points per game in 1971. He is seeking to become the fourth Big Ten player since 1993 to average at least 23 points per game (Glenn Robinson, Shawn Respert, and Carsen Edwards). No player has averaged more than 25 points per game in Big Ten play since 1999. Garza currently averages 26.1 points per game with one league game remaining. His average of 26.1 points per game in Big Ten play are the highest by a true center since Minnesota’s Tom Kondla (28.3 ppg) in 1967.

In the home win over Illinois earlier this season, Garza was able to exploit foul trouble by Illini freshman center Kofi Cockburn but if Illinois' 7-foot, 290-pound presence can stay on the floor, the Illini might be able to contain the Hawkeyes leading scorer to a reasonable number and pull off the victory.

3) Will the Illini keep CJ Frederick from getting open perimeter looks?

Redshirt freshman CJ Fredrick has made an impact on this team. Fredrick suffered an ankle injury midway through the first half at Indiana (Feb. 13) and did not return. He missed three games late in February (Minnesota, Feb. 16; Ohio State, Feb. 20; Michigan State, Feb. 25). Fredrick is third on the team in scoring (10.5), and first in the Big Ten in 3-point accuracy (.465, 46-of-99) and 14th in field goal percentage (.489, 86-of-176). His 10.5 points per game ranks third highest among Big Ten freshmen. Fredrick was named Big Ten Freshman of the Week on Jan. 20, after averaging 16 points, four assists, and three rebounds in wins over Northwestern and Michigan. Fredrick was named to the Las Vegas Invitational All-Tournament Team after averaging 13 points, 3.5 assists, and 3.0 rebounds. He equaled a personal-best 21 points in Iowa’s win over Cincinnati. The native of Cincinnati, Ohio, did not play at Syracuse due to a sore left quad and missed two and a half games (second half vs. Penn State; entire games vs. Nebraska and Maryland) due to a stress reaction in his left foot. Fredrick has led Iowa in scoring four times (DePaul, Cal Poly, San Diego State, and Cincinnati). Illinois junior wing Da'Monte Williams will likely get the first chance to guard Frederick and stay on his hip through constant screening action.

Prediction: Illinois 67, Iowa 65

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