Three In The Key: What to Look For In Braggin’ Rights Game

Illini Maven/Sports Illustrated gets you set for the annual Braggin’ Rights game vs. Missouri with another 'Three in the Key' piece.

ST. LOUIS -- Brad Underwood has decided the Braggin’ Rights Game already has enough energy so allowing for bad blood between him and the Mark Smith camp simply isn’t worth it.

The former Illinois guard and 2017 Mr. Illinois Basketball, who is now leading Missouri in scoring this season, can take solace in the fact that he’s at the top of the Illini’s scouting report.

Illinois had its five-year reign in the Braggin’ Rights game come to an end after Missouri pulled away in the last seven minutes to claim its first victory since 2012 in the annual rivalry game played in St. Louis.

Missouri went on a 17-2 run en route to outscoring the Illini 24-7 over the final seven minutes and 21 seconds. Missouri became the first opponent in seven games to top 50 percent shooting against the Illini, and the Tigers 11-of-21 from 3-point range for 52.4 percent accuracy marked the highest allowed by the UI to date on the season. Smith, who is averaging 11.4 points per game, shot a blistering 45 percent from 3-point range, the Southeastern Conference's highest percentage a year ago. It was the fourth-highest mark by a sophomore in Missouri history and the eighth-highest ever in program history. He was one of 28 players nationally to shoot 45 percent from three-point range and one of just six from power conferences.

Whether or not the Smith camp and/or Underwood still have lingering feelings about his only season with the Illini, Illinois’ third-year head coach wasn’t in the mood Thursday to admit it.

“Just another player in another uniform that isn't ours,” Underwood said.

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Game 12: Missouri vs. Illinois

Date/Time/Place: Saturday, Dec. 21, 2019: Noon CST, Enterprise Center in St. Louis

Capacity: 21,000

Records: Missouri 6-4; 15-17, 5-13 in Southern Conference in 2018-19. Illinois 8-3, 1-1 in Big Ten; 12-21, 7-13 in Big Ten Conference in 2018-19.

Line: Illinois by 3.5

Series notes: Illinois leads 32-17. Illinois leads 25-13 in St. Louis but Missouri currently owns the trophy after a 78-63 victory last season.

TV: SEC Network - Mike Morgan (PBP), Jon Sundvold (analyst)

Radio (Illinois): Brian Barnhart (PBP), Deon Thomas (analyst) - The broadcast can be heard live on TuneIn online radio, Sirius/XM 381 and at FightingIllini.com.

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1) Two perimeter defense powers

Illinois’ defense has allowed an average of just 58.7 points on 37.9 percent shooting, including 25.4 percent from 3-point range, over the last three games. However, Smith scored a career-high 23 points vs. Southern Illinois in his last game, making seven 3-pointers, which matched a Mizzou Arena single-game record and marked the most by a Tiger since 2011. Missouri ranks 30th nationally in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric, allowing 90.3 points per 100 possessions. Mizzou allows only 57.9 points per game, which ranks 14th nationally. When the Tigers have held teams to fewer than 60 points they are 6-0 this season. Mizzou has held eight of its first 10 opponents to 63 of fewer points. Only 16 teams nationally have held at least eight opponents to 63 or fewer points in a game so far this season.

2) Jeremiah Tilmon vs. Kofi Cockburn

Jeremiah Tilmon, Jr., is on a tear shooting 64.9 percent from the field thus far (37-of-57) to rank 18th nationally. Missouri is 13-7 when he's scored at least 10 points since the beginning of last season and 3-2 this season. Tilmon, Jr., who committed to Illinois under then-head coach John Groce but ultimately signed with Missouri, has a team-high 13 blocked shots this season, which ranks sixth in the Southeastern Conference. He has 71 blocks and counting through just 73 career games. He is eight blocks shy of cracking Mizzou's all-time blocks list.

Kofi Cockburn is the lone freshman in the NCAA averaging a double-double (15.4 ppg & 10.5 rpg). Cockburn is the reigning Big Ten Freshman of the Week, earning the award on Monday for a school-record fourth time just six weeks into the season. Cockburn has been a double-double machine to start his college career. He is currently averaging a double-double at 15.4 points and 10.5 rebounds and has tallied six double-doubles in 11 games:

3) Who controls the emotion better?

This key is simple to figure out. The players on both rosters simply don’t care much for each other and it hasn’t been hidden in the last two games of this series. However, it has been critical in big games for Illinois to keep its head about them in order to execute on both ends of the floor. If Illinois and its players try to ride the emotional wave of this game, it may play right into the way Cuonzo Martin’s team wants to steal this upset win.

Prediction: Illinois is just as talented on the perimeter and now, with the addition of Kofi Cockburn in the paint, has the ability to match if not be better than Missouri’s size on the glass. The key might just be Ayo Dosunmu as the sophomore had a regrettable debut (2 pts, 2 reb in 17 mins.) in this rivalry game that was plagued with foul trouble. If foul trouble doesn’t affect Cockburn, as it did on the road at Maryland, Illinois should be able to walk away from St. Louis with the rivalry trophy back in its grasp. The Illini will likely need to shoot it better from 3-point range as they’re only making 31.7 percent this season. Enter Trent Frazier. Frazier is averaging 25.0 points in the Braggin’ Rights series, tallying a game-high 22 points as a freshman and game-high 28 points last year.

Illinois 72, Missouri 65