Three In The Key Preview & Prediction: No. 23 Illinois At No. 19 Ohio State

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- The Illinois men's basketball program is on the verge of doing something that hasn't happened since their star player turned five years old.

Pull off this upset at No. 19 Ohio State tonight and then hold serve Sunday night against Iowa and the Illini clinch at least a share of the conference championship for the first time since 2005.

“This is what I envisioned," sophomore star guard Ayo Dosunmu said. "I envisioned winning the Big Ten championship and we’re closer and closer. We’re just climbing that mountain and trying to get to the top. We’re going to keep going and keep fighting and we’ll give our all in Columbus."

Illinois has won five league road games, tied with Maryland for second-most in the Big Ten behind Michigan State (six), and the most by an Illini team since also winning five in 2010. Illinois (20-9, 12-6 in Big Ten) carries a four-game winning streak into Columbus and has won two straight on the road. This includes its last game against a ranked opponent, a 62-56 win at No. 9 Penn State on Feb. 18.

“That’s why we came here," Illinois coach Brad Underwood said. "It’s the best conference in the country. Every team has had its lapse, every team has played great. For the most part, every player has had a lapse that’s an elite player. That’s what this league does to you. To survive that and be in the last week and be relevant and be in the conversation for a league title, that’s what we came here to do. It doesn’t make it any easier, but (the championship) right in front of us and we’re aware of that."

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Game 30: No. 23 Illinois at No. 19 Ohio State

Date/Time/Place: Thursday, March 5, 2020: 6 p.m. CST, Value City Arena, Columbus, Ohio.

Capacity: 18,809

Records: Illinois 20-9, 12-6 in Big Ten; 12-21, 7-13 in Big Ten Conference in 2018-19. Ohio State 20-9, 10-8 in Big Ten; 20-15, 8-12 in 2018-19.

Line: Ohio State by 6

Series Notes: Illinois leads the all-time series with Ohio State 103-73. Ohio State leads the series 45-42 in Columbus. Ranked Ohio State teams are 28-11 against the Illini while Illinois is 36-10 when ranked in games vs. the Buckeyes. When both teams are ranked when facing one another, Illinois leads 6-5.

TV: ESPN - Jason Benetti (PBP), Dan Dakich (analyst)

Radio (Illinois): Brian Barnhart (PBP), Deon Thomas (analyst) - The broadcast can be heard live on TuneIn online radio, Sirius/XM 84 and at FightingIllini.com.

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Before every game of the 2019-20 season, we take a look at three things you’ll want to watch for after the tip.

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1) Why is this Kaleb Wesson matchup problematic for Illinois center Kofi Cocburn?

Ohio State junior Kaleb Wesson has entered both the 1,000 career point and 500 career rebound club with 1,213 points and 661 boards. Wesson became the 29th Buckeye player all-time with both 1,000 points and 500 rebounds in a career. And none of that is a problem for Cockburn.

Over the last six games, freshman Kofi Cockburn is averaging 12.8 points and nine rebounds while shooting 56.9% (29 of 51). Cockburn has had double-doubles in three of the last six games while scoring in double figures all six times. If this was simply a matchup in the paint, the Illini's 7-foot, 290-pound center would not only hold his own but probably dominate the matchup.

The issue for Cockburn is simply that Wesson can get going offensively from the outside as well as the 6-foot-9 forward is hitting 43.3 percent of his three-point shots in Big Ten Conference play this season. Non-traditional bigs who can step away from the basket and hit perimeter shots causes problems for Cockburn in two ways. One, he isn't able to peel off his man and become the rim protector he was Sunday on the way to six blocks in a win over Indiana. Wesson isn't, quoting Cockburn on Sunday, a "non-shooter" and if he trying to get a hand in his face from 20 feet out, he's obviously leaving the rim wildly unprotected and forcing the Illini's four-guard starting lineup to work overtime keeping their man in front.

The second problem it causes Cockburn is a foul trouble bug he seemed to get past in late February but could emerge again with a troubling matchup issue. It also should be monitored how much energy Cockburn is using trying to guard Wesson because they'll need at least 10 points and 6-7 rebounds out of its big man to pick up another road win.

2) Trent Frazier has to hit shots...easier said than done lately

In his three career games, Trent Frazier has averaged 15 points per game, which is what he got last season in Columbus during a 63-56 win. However, this junior season has been frustrating to Frazier on the offensive end as he's 21 of 87 from the field in a nine-game stretch since the end of January and has only connected on 11 of 50 shots from three-point range. Ohio State (20-9, 10-8) is fifth in the league in scoring during conference games this season so this is not a game where Illinois can afford an evening where they get little or nothing from Frazier and Da'Monte Williams on offense but have to rely on Dosunmu and Andres Feliz for offensive firepower from the perimeter. Frazier will have to monitor his energy level as he'll likely be running around screens all night on defense as he likely draws the defensive assignment of scoring guard Duane Washington Jr.

3) Can Illinois guard and survive Ohio State's three-point barrage?

The bad news: Ohio State has five players who average double-digit minutes per game shooting at least 36.5 percent from beyond the three-point arc and four of those players top 40 percent. The good news: Illinois is third in the Big Ten Conference in three-point percentage defense and will likely have a goal in mind of how many perimeter makes Underwood's defense will want to hold the Buckeyes to tonight. In three seasons as Ohio State head coach, Chris Holtmann teams have made 10 or more three-pointers 26 times (20-6 record) and if they get close to that number tonight, the Buckeyes will prevail on Senior Night.

Prediction: Ohio State 72, Illinois 69