3 Things to Watch When Illinois Plays Houston in the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

The NCAA Tournament is all about playing the best basketball at the right time, and Illinois could make that claim after wins by 35 and 21 points in the first two rounds.

But it's also about upsets and matchups, and things are about to get much more difficult for the Illini in the Sweet 16 after facing No. 14 seed Penn and No. 11 seed VCU. Illinois meets No. 2 seed Houston on Thursday at 9:05 p.m. CT at the Toyota Center in Houston, where it should be something of a road game for Illinois.

Houston is trying to avenge its heartbreaking loss in last year's national championship, and it's looking like a strong contender at 30-6, with tournament wins over No. 15 seed Idaho and No. 10 seed Texas A&M – both by 31 points. Is this the group that can get Kelvin Sampson his first national championship in 37 years?

The Illini will have something to say about that, and here are three things to watch as they face Houston.

1. Which team grabs more offensive rebounds?

Chris Cenac Houston Basketball — Houston Cougars forward Chris Cenac Jr. (5) and guard Emanuel Sharp (21) rebound against the BYU Cougars at T-Mobile Center. | William Purnell-Imagn Images

Second-chance points will go a long way toward deciding the outcome of this game and who advances to the Elite Eight. That's true of many games, but especially this matchup because it's a strength of both teams.

Houston ranks 35th nationally with 12.8 offensive rebounds per game, a trait that has been a non-negotiable at Houston for years under Sampson. Sometimes, instead of securing the rebound, the Cougars like to tap the ball back to the perimeter to create open three-point looks when the defense isn't set. Illinois must be mindful of this and be ready to scramble back to shooters if it can't get the rebound first.

Junior forward JoJo Tugler leads the Cougars with three offensive rebounds per game, followed by potential first-round pick Chris Cenac Jr., who averages 2.2. Both of Houston's backup bigs – Kalifa Sakho and Chase McCarty – grab at least one per game, as well. The Cougars dominated the boards in their first two tournament games, out-rebounding Texas A&M 46-29 and Idaho 47-32.

On paper, Illinois has as good a chance as perhaps any team at deterring Houston's offensive rebounding abilities. The Illini rank top 16 in offensive, defensive and total rebounding, and they need to use that to their advantage to have a chance in this game.

2. How does Keaton Wagler handle Houston's physicality?

Keaton Wagler Illinois Basketball — Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) is defended by Penn Quakers guard AJ Levine (0) during the NCAA Tournament at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. | Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Along with its offensive rebounding, another Houston trademark is its disciplined but physical defense. Sampson is perhaps the best defensive coach in the nation, as the Cougars have ranked top five in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency each of the past four seasons.

Expect Houston to be especially physical with star freshman Keaton Wagler in an effort to get Illinois' potent offense out of rhythm. All three starting guards – Emanuel Sharp, Milos Uzan and Kingston Flemings – are strong defenders, allowing Houston to switch on the perimeter without having a weak point in the unit.

Wagler has faced elite defenses in Big Ten play against Michigan, Nebraska and Michigan State, but this is arguably his and Illinois' biggest challenge yet. His shooting numbers are down a bit from his season averages over the past five games – 42.9 percent from the field, 32.1 percent from three and 62.5 percent from the free-throw line – which is somewhat of a concern going into this matchup.

If there's one way to knock Wagler off his game, it's to be physical when he drives. Houston is going to foul him on nearly every possession, with the idea that the officials won't call every one of them.

3. Can Kylan Boswell hold Kingston Flemings in check?

Kylan Boswell Illinois Basketball — Illinois Fighting Illini guard Kylan Boswell (4) during a 2026 NCAA Tournament win over VCU at Bon Secours Wellness Arena. | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Houston's most dynamic guard is 6-foot-4 freshman Kingston Flemings, a consensus All-American. Flemings has a controlled game, with an efficient midrange jumper, strength and quickness to get to the basket and the nation's 39th assist-to-turnover ratio.

Kylan Boswell seems like the logical matchup to spend the most time on Flemings as Illinois' best on-ball defender. Boswell played a key role in shutting down Penn's TJ Power in the first round, and he helped slow down VCU's guards in the following game.

Flemings didn't have a big game in Houston's 31-point second-round win over Texas A&M – he didn't need to – finishing with nine points, five rebounds and four assists. But he has been at his best in other big games, like a 42-point effort at Texas Tech or a 21-point game in the Big 12 Tournament win over Kansas.