Illinois at Wisconsin: Three In the Key Matchup Preview/Prediction

MADISON, Wis. -- Ten years. A decade. 3,658 days. This is how long its has been since an Illinois men's basketball team has won in the horror setting known as the Kohl Center.

Wisconsin (9-5, 2-1 in Big Ten) has won eight straight games over Illinois in Madison and are a perfect 7-0 in its home arena. With all these statistics and history against Illinois, this game tonight represents the next step in the program development for Illini third-year head coach Brad Underwood.

"It's winning on the road," Underwood said Tuesday. "It's proven very hard to do in this league. It's an attitude. It's a toughness. It's a growing step. It's not easy. It sounds really easy like 'hey, just go win on the road' but it's overcoming adversity. It's handling challenges. That's what we have to get better and fight at. We gave ourselves a chance at Maryland and I expect that same kind of effort every single time we step on an opponents' venue."

When asked what it's going to take to produce a valuable road win in the Big Ten, something that has only happened three times this season, Illinois sophomore forward Giorgi Bezhanishvili said to the media that he'd let the media know how it works when it happens.

Clearly, for this 2019-20 Illinois team, winning on the road is defined with one word: unknown. A lot of folks in orange and blue tonight hope that turns into a known commodity for the first time since Feb. 9, 2010 - which is when Illini freshman center Kofi Cockburn was 10 years, four months and two days old.

------------

Game 16: Illinois at Wisconsin

Date/Time/Place: Sunday, Jan. 8, 2020: 8 p.m. CST, Kohl Center, Madison, Wisconsin

Capacity: 17,287

Records: Illinois 10-5, 2-2 in Big Ten; 12-21, 7-13 in Big Ten Conference in 2018-19. Wisconsin 9-5, 2-1 in Big Ten; 23-11, 14-6 in Big Ten Conference in 2018-19.

Line: Wisconsin by 4.5

Series notes: Illinois is aiming to halt Wisconsin’s 15-game series win streak, which is the longest ever by an Illini opponent. The Illini’s last victory in the series was a 69-61 win in Champaign on Jan. 2, 2011. It has been 10 years since the Illini last won at Kohl Center, meanwhile, a 63-56 victory over the 11th-ranked Badgers on Feb. 9, 2010. Reaching 60 points has been an incredible indicator in this series. The first team to score 60 points is 32-1 over the last 15 seasons. The only loss was UW's 71-64 comeback win on Jan. 20, 2007 (ILL led 60-57 with 5:07 left).

TV: BTN - Cory Provus (PBP), Robbie Hummel (analyst), Olivia Harlan Dekker (Sideline)

Radio (Illinois): Brian Barnhart (PBP), Deon Thomas (analyst) - The broadcast can be heard live on TuneIn online radio, Sirius/XM 385 and at FightingIllini.com.

------------------

Before every game of the 2019-20 season, we take a look at three things you’ll want to watch for after the tip.

--------------------

1) Tempo, tempo, tempo

According to hoop-math.com, Illinois (10-5, 2-2) gets 31 percent of its shot attempts via transitions. According to KenPom.com, Wisconsin is 350th of 353 Division 1 college basketball programs in its pace of play. Wisconsin has held Illinois to 70 or fewer points in each of the last 28 matchups. The Illini are 10-1 this season, and 30-3 in the Underwood era, when shooting better than the opponent. Whoever can properly set the tempo of this game, will likely get the win. And it is likely to suggest that the home team will have a better chance of establishing a comfortable tempo and as ESPN analyst Jay Bilas usually says "it's easier to slow a game down than speed it up".

"I think many have tried," Underwood said when asked if he'd like his team to get out and run against Wisconsin. "You know how they're going to play. I think the key is not to force it and then take bad shots or turn it over."

2) Will Illinois' defense travel again?

Illinois’ defense has allowed an average of just 59.4 points on 38.5 percent shooting and 28.7 percent from 3-point range over the last seven games. The only Illini opponent to top 64 points in the last seven games was Michigan State – the nation’s No. 1 offense by kenpom.com – on the Spartans’ home court. In its last outing Illinois held Purdue to 37 points – marking PU’s lowest output since 1949 – on 25 percent shooting, the lowest field goal percentage in Boilermaker history. Illinois ranks first in the Big Ten in kenpom.com defensive efficiency during conference play (87.8). However, Wisconsin is a unique opponent because of its balance on the offensive end. All five Badgers starters average at least 8.5 points per game: Nate Reuvers (14.9), D’Mitrik Trice (10.3), Kobe King (10.2), Aleem Ford (9.6) and Brad Davison (8.6). Since 1995, the Badgers have had six players score in double figures in a single game just seven times, with two coming this season. The last time UW had at least five players averaging nine-plus points per game was in 2002-03: Kirk Penney (16.2), Devin Harris (12.7), Alando Tucker (12.0), Freddie Owens (10.3) and Mike Wilkinson (10.3). Wisconsin won the Big Ten title that season.

3) D’Mitrik Trice vs. Trent Frazier

Trice, who spent his prep career at Florida's IMG Academy, has a team-leading 16.8 ppg, 48.0 percent shooting from 3-point range (12-25) in the last four games, including a career-high 31 pts vs. Milwaukee. Frazier reached double figures for the first time in six games on Sunday, scoring 12 points against Purdue. They'll likely both guard each other with Frazier and Trice being run off screens (ball screens and off-ball actions as well) constantly and so it'll be interesting to see which player has enough energy on the offensive end to make a difference tonight.

Prediction: Wisconsin 64, Illinois 62