How Injury to Penn's Ethan Roberts Affects Illinois in the NCAA Tournament

No. 3 seed Illinois would have been a big favorite against No. 14 seed Penn in the NCAA Tournament even if the Quakers were at full strength. But the Illini figure to have an even greater advantage after heading Penn coach Fran McCaffery's update on leading scorer Ethan Roberts.

Roberts, a 6-foot-5 senior guard who averages 16.9 points, has missed Penn's past two game because of a concussion. Barring a speedy recovery, it sounds like he'll be out for Thursday's game against Illinois, too.

"[Roberts] was gonna try to do some things today. I suspect he will not play, but we'll find out a little bit more," McCaffery said Tuesday on the 94WIP Morning Show in Philadelphia. "We practice today at 10, so we'll see where he's at."

"We're all rooting for him, but we're not going to rush him. I mean, when you're talking about concussion protocol guys, that's not something you mess with. If it was his ankle, he'd be playing. Tape it up, you know. But the concussion stuff, you don't mess with that. His future is too important, and we love him."

How Ethan Roberts' availability affects Illinois

The case for Penn pulling off an upset against Illinois likely revolves around the Quakers getting hot from three-point range. They have proven to be capable of that, ranking 15th nationally at 38.6 percent on threes for the season.

Roberts is a big reason for Penn's three-point efficiency, shooting 40.4 percent and ranking third on the team with 40 threes made this season. His absence would be a significant blow to Penn's upset hopes.

It also means Illinois can put additional defensive focus on Penn's 6-foot-9 forward TJ Power, who is just behind Roberts at 16.8 points per game. Power leads the team with 13.2 field-goal attempts per game, so Illinois should expect him to be an even bigger focal point of the Quakers' offense Thursday.

On paper, Roberts' absence certainly increases Illinois' chances of winning. At the same time, the mental side of the game looms large in the NCAA Tournament, and the Illini can't approach any of their upcoming games with complacency. If they think they can simply show up and win, a lack of focus could lead to a closer game than it should be.

Penn won both of its Ivy League Tournament games without Roberts and showed impressive resilience in the pair of overtime wins. The Quakers will be playing with house money, while the pressure is on Illinois to avoid an embarrassing upset.

Tip-off between Illinois and Penn is scheduled for 8:25 p.m. CT at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina. Especially if Roberts is unable to play, Illinois should be able to take care of business and advance to the Round of 32, where it would face either No. 6 seed North Carolina or No. 11 seed VCU.