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Staff Picks: Who Wins No. 10 Illinois vs. No. 3 Michigan?

When the Illini (22-6, 13-4 Big Ten) are at their best, they may be unbeatable. The Wolverines (26-2, 16-1) will put that theory to the test Friday.
Jason Langendorf|
Feb 15, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) and teammates take the court before the first half against the Indiana Hoosiers at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images
Feb 15, 2026; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini guard Keaton Wagler (23) and teammates take the court before the first half against the Indiana Hoosiers at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

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Illinois Fighting IlliniMichigan Wolverines

The schedule makers aren't soothsayers, but they obviously had an inkling that Illinois and Michigan would be a couple of Big Ten contenders when they set up a Friday night showdown in Champaign (7 p.m. CT, FOX) way back when.

Still, not even they could have counted on these two being this good.

The No. 10 Illini (22-6, 13-4 Big Ten) have experienced some ups and downs for a supposed Final Four-caliber club – but no one disagrees that the description still checks out. In college basketball's most cutthroat conference, all four of their losses have come by a single possession. Meanwhile, the No. 3 Wolverines (26-2, 16-1) had been the top-ranked team in the nation before they were clipped by yet another national championship contender in Duke in a five-point loss.

With a win, Illinois still has an outside chance to chase down Big Blue for a piece of the Big Ten title. Even if that larger scenario doesn't play out, a victory over Michigan would prove that the Illini's wins over Purdue and Nebraska weeks ago weren't just a flash in the pan. For the Wolverines, a win clinches the conference crown and immediately puts them back on a trajectory to take the whole enchilada in Indianapolis a few weeks hence.

How does our crack Illinois on SI staff think it'll go down? Read below to find out how we picked 'em:

Jason Langendorf

Actions have consequences, and so too does inaction – which is partly why Illinois is 0-3 in overtime games and 1-2 in all other games decided by four points or fewer. Illini coach Brad Underwood plays the percentages and lets the chips fall where they may, which can be a disadvantage against a wily opposing coach and an adversary of similar skill. In this case – with so much at stake, a (nearly) healthy roster and having learned from the mistakes of the recent past – Illinois is ready for its shining moment Friday. (Illini Nation will be hoping it's not just one.)

Prediction: Illinois 83, Michigan 81

Steve Greenberg

In a perfect world, Illinois would challenge the Wolverines for a piece of the Big Ten regular-season title. Alas, this is where the narrator says, “It is not a perfect world.” Morez Johnson Jr.’s return to State Farm Center is one thing – the boos have already begun – but it is jet-quick point guard Elliot Cadeau who gives the visitors the biggest edge. Cadeau is just the kind of guard the slower-footed Illini have so much trouble containing. That’s just reality, folks.

Prediction: Michigan 88, Illinois 81

Jackson Langendorf

The story remains the same: At their best, the Illini may be the most complete team in the country. But have they played 40 minutes of their best basketball against a worthy opponent this year? Not even close. And they'll need to do exactly that on Friday night against the Wolverines, who will take full advantage of any lulls. A raucous State Farm Center crowd will certainly help Illinois, but it likely won't be enough to stave off mighty Michigan.

Prediction: Michigan 86, Illinois 82

Pranav Hegde

Michigan is the clear class of the Big Ten – and arguably the entire country – even after the loss to Duke. The Wolverines have consistently played their best ball against the best teams on their schedule, and it feels like they’ll bring that same edge into Champaign. Illinois should make it a fight with its size, shot-making and home-court energy, but it’s hard to trust the Illini to close out a tight one given their late-game track record. I expect a high-level game that stays competitive, with Michigan making the winning plays late.

Prediction: Michigan 77, Illinois 71

Jared Shlesky

The Illini are coming off a heartbreaking overtime loss against UCLA, and the Wolverines – who have won 12 of their past 13 – are the clear-cut best team in the Big Ten. Unsurprisingly, I’m taking Michigan. Illinois really struggled on the defensive glass against the Bruins, and I don’t see that changing against a more physical team like Michigan. Expect this game to be close for a while, but the Wolverines are better, and will do just enough to come out of Champaign with a win.

Prediction: Michigan 73, Illinois 69

Jack Ankony

These are the two best Big Ten teams in my eyes, and I’m expecting a classic. Michigan has the better frontcourt overall, but I think Illinois can hold its own on the glass well enough to stay in the game. Illinois’ advantage comes in the backcourt, especially with Michigan’s guards coming off a rough game against Duke. In a physical battle that could go either way, Keaton Wagler exploits that with a game-winner.

Prediction: Illinois 77, Michigan 76

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Jason Langendorf
JASON LANGENDORF

Jason Langendorf has covered Illinois basketball, football and more for Illinois on SI since October 2024, and has covered Illini sports – among other subjects – for 30 years. A veteran of ESPN and Sporting News, he has published work in The Guardian, Vice, Chicago Sun-Times and many other outlets. He is currently also the U.S. editor at BoxingScene and a judge for the annual BWAA writing awards. He can be followed and reached on X and Bluesky @JasonLangendorf.

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