How Much Was Illinois Football Aided by Stumbles of Alabama, Arch Manning?

Is it too early in the season for a little college football schadenfreude?

Illinois has its natural rivals in the Big Ten – Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa (under the right circumstances) and perhaps, if form holds over the long haul, even Indiana. But Alabama and Texas? They're as far off the Illini's radar as Algeria and Tobago.

Or are they?

After a wild opening week of CFB action, in which LSU upended Clemson, South Florida stunned Boise State and even Division II powerhouse Central Oklahoma got the business from UT Permian Basin, traditional pillars of the game crumbled – and rival fan bases (and lovers of underdogs everywhere) rejoiced.

But the two major feel-good-about-bad developments in the season's opening week were tied to stumbles by the Crimson Tide and the scion of a quarterback family – Manning – and his soon-to-be-deposed No. 1 Longhorns. And, yes, those results could have big implications for the Illini.

How the Alabama loss helps Illinois

Forgetting the fact that it feels like something akin to justice for Illinois fans that blue-blooded Alabama – which last year finished No. 11 in the College Football Playoff rankings despite its three losses – went down in Week 1 to an unranked Florida State squad, the Tide's defeat also could have a significant downstream effect for the Illini.

"Smack talkers usually get smacked. Not today. (Florida State) was doing the smacking around."@AaronTaylorCFB, @JonesN4mo, @CoachNeuheisel and @AdamZuckerCBS broke down @FSUFootball's upset win over No. 8 Alabama pic.twitter.com/wTCFz4ia9q
— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) August 30, 2025

If Alabama can fall by two touchdowns to the Seminoles, they're unquestionably vulnerable – until proven otherwise – against Wisconsin and especially at Missouri. If the Tide take on even one more non-conference loss, their CFP goose is likely cooked. The SEC schedule, as always, will be a dogfight, and a seemingly weakened Bama outfit won't stand a chance of escaping it with as few as one defeat. That could leave an unexpected door wide open for a nontraditional power to crash the playoff party. Calling Bret Bielema. ...

How the Texas loss helps Illinois

Essentially, all the same logic above fits the Longhorns' situation coming out of their smoking ruins of a Week 1. Look, Ohio State, the defending national champion, was always going to be good in 2025. Maybe the Buckeyes are even better than anticipated. A Texas loss was always at least an outside possibility. But now UT, like Arch's granddaddy Archie, is scrambling.

"Not good enough."

Arch Manning shares his initial thoughts on his performance in Texas' loss to Ohio State. pic.twitter.com/DGF3Gv1awD
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) August 30, 2025

The Longhorns will feast on cupcakes in each of the next three weeks, and their SEC schedule is relatively cush, including matchups against Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Arkansas. But Manning and Texas have barely one month to get their steers in a row, because No. 15 Florida (Oct. 4) and No. 18 Oklahoma are now sharpening their claws, hoping to catch the Longhorns in a low moment.

Moreover, Texas won't get many signature opportunities to prove to the CFP committee that Week 1 was a fluke – or that OSU is just that damn good. A loss to Georgia in Athens in November would mean the Longhorns would likely have to win every other date on their schedule to ensure a spot in the CFP. Do we hear another door creaking open?

Illini football celebrate — Aug 29, 2025; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini linebacker Gabe Jacas (17) jumps on teammate Illinois Fighting Illini defensive lineman Eli Coenen (96) after a sack on Western Illinois Leathernecks quarterback Chris Irvin (5) during the first half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images | Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

The Illini, at No. 12 and staring down the barrel of a favorable schedule, will need to win all the matchups in which they are favored – and likely one or two in which they are not. Suddenly, experts view them not as 'dogs against Duke next week, but the team to beat. If Illinois wins there, beats No. 20 Indiana (which had to escape an early scare against Old Dominion on Saturday) in Bloomington in Week 4, then takes down USC at home a week later, the dominoes begin to fall. The Illini suddenly have a bit of leeway to finish out the regular season at 10-2 – the Buckeyes are going to be nigh on unbeatable – and possibly even better.

Can the CFP committee say no to a two-loss on-the-rise Illini squad over middling Alabama and Texas programs? If so, they may need to blow this thing up and start over. But it would have been impossible to imagine this scenario two years ago – Illinois at the center of a debate over its CFP worthiness compared to preseason top-10 monoliths Alabama and Texas. That's what's called progress.