ILLINI GAMEDAY Live Blog: Redbox Bowl - FINAL - Cal 35, Illinois 20
Good afternoon from the Illini Maven/Sports Illustrated home office as Illinois (6-6, 4-5 in Big Ten) will end its five-year bowl game drought in the 2019 Redbox Bowl against California (7-5) for a 3 p.m. CST kickoff in Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. Illinois, which is a 6-point underdog today is again without several injured starters on both sides of the ball. We're a few minutes away from game time.
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While you wait for kickoff, here’s the matchup preview for the 2019 Redbox Bowl
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California running game vs. Illinois run defense
California has survived several injuries on the offensive line and started six different offensive line combinations this year. Jake Curhan and Valentino Daltoso are starters for the third straight year. Curhan has 37 straight starts at right tackle, while Daltoso has played in 33 games with 32 starts (11 at LT, 11 at LG and 10 at RG). Despite all these changes up front, the Bears (7-5) have stayed committed to a run game to balance out what can be a high octane passing attack. Christopher Brown Jr. has 11 touchdowns in 12 games and scored in five straight prior to Cal’s game vs. Utah. He is sixth in the Pac-12 in total touchdowns. Brown Jr. had 36 carries for 197 yards and a touchdown in his first career start vs. UC Davis, the 20th best rushing performance in school history. However, Brown Jr., has help. Five different players have rushed for 70-plus yards in a game: Brown Jr. (4 times) Marcel Dancy (Washington), Deshawn Collins (USC), Chase Garbers (North Texas, Stanford) and Devon Modster (OSU).
Illinois struggled early on in the season to stop teams from running the ball effectively and finished the season last in the Big Ten Conference in rushing defense. In its last outing versus Northwestern, with several defensive starters out with injuries, Illinois (6-6) allowed the Wildcats to roll up 378 yards on the ground against a pedestrian offensive attack that followed with Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald firing his offensive coordinator a day after the win. Pre-game reports suggest linebacker Jake Hansen, who has become one of the biggest takeaway threats in the Big Ten Conference, is inactive to play with his back injury. Hansen leads the nation forced fumbles (seven) and ranks fifth in fumbles recovered (three) behind Illini Stanley Green. Hansen has two more forced fumbles (7) than any other player in the nation not named Chase Young (who has 6) and as many or more as 38 FBS teams. His absence today could be a major factor in whether Illinois’ defense will be able to get off the field.
Edge: California
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California passing game vs. Illinois pass defense
California couldn’t welcome back starting quarterback Chase Garbers with a big enough hug. The Bears are 12-2 in career games where Garbers has played more than half the game, including 6-0 this year. In his first road test this season, Garbers had career-highs in passing yards (357), touchdowns (four) and completions (23) in a win at Ole Miss. Garbers had 285 yards passing, 72 yards rushing and two total touchdowns in the rivalry game versus Stanford and Garbers has led the team to game-winning scores on their final drive at both Washington and Stanford.
Devon Modster started vs. Oregon, Oregon State and Washington State. Prior to that, Modster’s last start was in the 2017 Cactus Bowl vs. Kansas State. Modster was the first Bears’ backup QB to start a game due to injury in 79 games. All four quarterbacks on the Cal roster have played this year and Cal has played multiple quarterbacks in five games this year so Lovie Smith’s defense might not want to panic if they see somebody else besides Garbers behind center. The key with Cal’s pass offense is balance. The Bears have had nine different players lead the team in receptions and six different paced the squad in receiving yards. Therefore, the Illini won’t be able to shift its Cover-2 defense toward one side of the field to cut off a primary target for Garbers. In order to slow down this passing attack, Illinois might have to get more aggressive with its blitz package, something Lovie Smith has been reluctant to do this season. Against above-average quarterbacks this season, Illinois has allowed 328 yards to Nebraska’s Taylor Martinez and 308 to Iowa’s Nate Stanley.
Edge: California
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Illinois running game vs. California run defense
Illinois senior Reggie Corbin will put on the orange and blue one last time after a storied career with the Illini. Corbin ranks 12th on the Illinois all-time rushing list. Corbin enters the bowl game with 2,320 yards, 165 yards behind 11th-place Howard Griffith (2,485). Corbin’s career 6.4 ypc ranks sixth among active FBS players with at least 2,000 rushing yards and is the second-most for any Illini with at least 2,000 rushing yards (Rashard Mendenhall, 6.5 ypc). Corbin has had 10 scrimmage plays over 50 yards in his career, all coming against Big Ten Conference competition. The senior has two 100-yard games this season (144 vs. EMU and 134 vs. NEB) and six career 100-yard games. The issue is Corbin has been slowed this season and targeted in scouting reports by every opponent. In his last game, he had minus-10 yards on seven carries against Northwestern.
California is going to load the box and prove its fourth-best rushing defense in the Pac 12 Conference is not just a fluke or a soft year for a west coast league. The Cal defense has stopped opponents from generating explosive plays, holding teams to three or fewer 20+ yard plays in seven of 12 games this season: UC Davis (2), Washington (two), North Texas (three), Arizona State (three), Oregon State (three), Washington State (three) and Stanford (three). Illinois will need those big plays in the run game and they’ll have to go through consensus All-American linebacker Evan Weaver to do it. Weaver leads the nation in total tackles (173), solo tackles (95), total tackles per game (14.4) and solo tackles per game (7.9). He has forced three fumbles in 2019, tied for 20th in the NCAA and tied for second in the Pac-12 Conference. Weaver has been invited to the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Ala., and is expected to be a draft pick in the middle rounds of the 2020 NFL Draft.
Edge: California
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Illinois passing game vs. California pass defense
Illinois welcomes back Brandon Peters but not much else in terms of weapons on the perimeter for him to distribute the ball to. California has allowed only 15 passing touchdowns in 12 games this season, which is third in the Pac-12 Conference and tied for 27th among Football Bowl Subdivision teams. With the announcement that Josh Imatorbhebhe and senior Caleb Reams didn’t make the trip to California for the bowl game, Illinois will dress only two wide receivers who caught more than two passes this season (Donny Navarro and Casey Washington).
Peters’ 17 touchdown passes are the most for an Illini in a season since Nathan Scheelhaase had 21 in 2013. However, he’ll have to start today with a new center after Doug Kramer suffered a season-ending injury against Northwestern. Through 12 games, Kramer was the No. 3 graded Power 5 Conference center and was the No. 6 overall center in FBS with a grade of 79.2. Justin Wilcox’s California defense features a group of seven players in the secondary of its 3-3-5 scheme (senior NB/CB Traveon Beck, redshirt junior CB Camryn Bynum, redshirt senior safety Ashtyn Davis, senior CB/NB Josh Drayden, junior CB Elijah Hicks, senior safety Jaylinn Hawkins, redshirt senior safety Trey Turner) who have started 152 games and played in 297. Cal’s secondary was ranked among the top eight in the nation in the preseason by three different media outlets: Phil Steele (second), Athlon (fourth), Lindy’s (eighth).
Edge: California in a significant way
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Special teams
Blake Hayes, the 2019 Big Ten Punter of the Year and first-team All-Big Ten by coaches, media & AP, will need to be very consistent and pin California deep its own territory every time he gets a chance to punt. Hayes’ 44.8-yard average per punt is second in Illini history (45.4 by Steve Weatherford, 2004) and he’s second in the Big Ten and 18th in the nation in punting average. Hayes’ 28 punts inside the 20-yard-line are the most in a season in Illini history. He has 13 punts inside the 10, including six downed on the 1- or 2-yard lines. California’s Greg Thomas and Illinois’ James McCourt both have the same problem. On long kicks, they’re very proficient. On shorter kicks, they’re not accurate at all. Greg Thomas is 11-of-17 on field goals this season, including hitting 6-of-8 field goals from 40 or more yards away. This means he’s 5 of 9 on kicks inside 40 yards. He knocked in a career-long kick of 49 yards against Stanford and connected on the game-winning 17-yard field goal against No. 14/12 Washington with eight seconds remaining.
Edge: Illinois
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Intangibles
Illinois has to do two things to win this game. Get turnovers and get career games from little-used players this season based on its inactive list for this game. Takeaways have long been a staple of Lovie Smith defenses. In each of the last three seasons, the Illini defense has created different ways to play “Lovie-ball.” In 2019, the Illini have forced 28 turnovers in 12 games, 12 interceptions and 16 fumbles, ranking third in FBS in turnovers gained. The Illini’s 18 forced fumbles ranks second in FBS. Illinois has forced at least one turnover in every game this season, the third-longest streak in FBS, and forced at least two turnovers in seven of nine Big Ten games. California is one of the most disciplined teams in the nation. Cal had 19 fewer penalties and 102 fewer penalty yards than anyone else in the Pac 12 Conference. They’ve also been through bowl preparations before and have had a plan to get solid work during this month of December. Cal is headed to its third bowl appearance in the last five years and the first back-to-back bowl appearances since the team went to seven straight bowl games between 2003-09. This will be the first time since 2008-09 that Cal has secured both back-to-back winning seasons and bowl game appearances.
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PREDICTION
California 28, Illinois 14
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Uniform update: Illinois will be in white helmets with the orange block 'I', orange jerseys with blue numbers and orange pants. California will be in white jerseys, blue helmets and white pants.
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Injury Update: Illinois officials have announced the inactive players for this Redbox Bowl.
Out vs. California
DB Adams
LB DeGroot
LB Hansen
WR Holmes
WR Imatorbhebhe
C Kramer
WR Reams
Previously announced as out for the season
DB Beason
WR Carter
RB Epstein
DB Knight
DL Roundtree
WR Sidney
WR Smalling
DB Wyatt
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FIRST QUARTER
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13:34 left in 1st: No score - Illinois gets a sack on the first play but Garbers converts a third-and-long down the middle of the field against the Illini Cover-2 defense.
12:53 left in 1st: No score - Illinois brings pressure with six rushers and forces an incompletion and a penalty to get off the field.
10:24 left in 1st: Illinois 3, California 0 - ILLINI FG - Illinois' opening drive stalls in the red zone but James McCourt nails a 25-yard field goal. Illinois got a 30-yard option run by Brandon Peters and an 18-yard jet sweep to backup quarterback Isaiah Williams.
7:09 left in 1st: California 7, Illinois 3 - CAL TD - California goes 79 yards on a touchdown run after a 50-yard run by Brown Jr. and a 4-yard play-action touchdown pass from Garbers to Collin Moore. Really bad drive for Illinois safety Sydney Brown as he missed the tackle on the run by Brown Jr. and got caught on the play-action fake on the touchdown pass.
NOTE: I like using Isaiah Williams at QB on first down today in Redbox Bowl. Peters can come off to the sidelines and you can ask him what 2nd-down play he likes. Problem? Cal will get to substitute every time you do this.
0:10 left in 1st: Illinois 10, California 7 - ILLINI TD - Illinois completes a 15-play drive with a 5-yard touchdown pass from Peters to tight end Daniel Barker. Illinois, which had just 14 yards in the regular-season finale loss to Northwestern, has 94 in the opening quarter against California.
End of 1st: Illinois 10, California 7 - Brandon Peters, who was out w/ concussion for regular-season finale vs. Northwestern, with 88 yards in the opening quarter (45 passing, 43 rushing).
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SECOND QUARTER
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12:12 left in 2nd: California 14, Illinois 10 - CAL TD - After a 38-yard pitch-and-catch down the sidelines to Makai Polk from Garbers, Garbers dives in from a yard out to retake the lead for the Bears. Once again, Sydney Brown is struggling today. Fox analyst Brock Huard detailed how Brown got his hips turned way too early on the deep pass to Polk.
NOTE: Fox Sports sideline reporter Bruce Feldman spoke about Illinois head coach Lovie Smith and his defensive staff being really angry with the defensive line production early in this game. Might see some substitutions and new big guys up front for the Illini on the next drive.
10:55 left in 2nd: California 14, Illinois 10 - Illinois gets away from the run game and Peters misses Casey Washington over the top of Cal's coverage to force the Illini's first punt. Not sure why Illini offensive coordinator Rod Smith went away from a rushing attack that was gaining nearly six yards a carry on that drive.
8:02 left in 2nd: California 14, Illinois 10 - Illinois gets big plays from Dele Harding (two tackles) as Illini defense gets off the field after just five offensive plays.
5:20 left in 2nd: California 14, Illinois 10 - Illinois punter Blake Hayes downs a punt inside the 5-yard-line. However, Cal defensive front not giving Peters a chance to set his feet on throws and he's just 6 of 13 passing today.
0:25 left in 2nd: California 21, Illinois 10 - CAL TD - California marches 97 yards on a touchdown drive that concludes with a fourth-down call where Garbers finds Brown Jr. on a pick play.
Garbers is 13 of 16 for 194 yards and two touchdowns in this first half.
End of 2nd: California 21, Illinois 13 - ILLINI FG - Illini go 58 yards in just 25 seconds to give James McCourt a 30-yard field goal to conclude the first half.
Illinois quarterback Brandon Peters has 165 total yards and a touchdown in the first half of the Redbox Bowl. California leads the Illini 21-13 after 30 minutes of play.
Stan Szeto/USA TODAY Sports
HALFTIME: California 21, Illinois 13 - Brandon Peters only has over 45 yards rushing in one game this season (70 at Iowa on Nov. 23) and he has 43 yards on the ground today.
Illinois is having trouble all day containing the Cal passing game as the Bears are averaging 12 yards per attempt in the first half.
Illinois barely has any reliable experience available at the wide receiver position. So what does Rod Smith do? Utilize tight end Daniel Barker in the passing game. Barker has 55 yards on three receptions and a touchdown today.
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THIRD QUARTER
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NOTE: Interesting. Illinois coach Lovie Smith tells sideline reporter Bruce Feldman during the halftime break that #Illini are going to switch to a man-to-man scheme in the second half of this Redbox Bowl. No more Cover-2 from Lovie as his secondary has struggled in coverage.
10:45 left in 3rd: California 28, Illinois 13 - CAL TD - So much for that defensive adjustment by the Illini. Cal goes 56 yards on seven plays in just 2:07. Cal quarterback Chase Garbers is 15 of 20 for 218 yards and three touchdowns. Bears are 6-0 this season when he plays the whole game.
7:49 left in 3rd: California 28, Illinois 13 - Peters makes some quality throws and shows a lot of poise on this drive but it stalls after Cal switches to more zone coverage. Illini appeared to go for it on 4th-and-10 on the Cal 34-yard-line (which I don't understand, kick the field goal) but then gets a delay of game call.
End of 3rd: California 28, Illinois 13 - Illinois defensive front has been practically non-existent today. Only one quarterback hurry, no sacks and just two tackles for loss. Cal quarterback Chase Garbers is currently 18 of 23 for 245 yards and four total touchdowns (three passing, one rushing).
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FOURTH QUARTER
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12:07 left: California 28, Illinois 13 - Milo Eifler, who from nearby Berkeley, Calif., has been charged with targeting and is ejected from this game. Eifler argued that he led with his shoulder but the review confirmed that he targeted his shoulder with the head and neck area.
11:06 left: California 35, Illinois 13 - CAL TD - Cal completes an 88-yard drive with a 5-yard touchdown pass from Garbers to Remigio over the middle. Garbers now has 272 yards and five total touchdowns.
8:01 left: California 35, Illinois 20 - ILLINI TD - Illinois responds with a touchdown as senior tailback Reggie Corbin finds the end zone. Illini go 75 yards in 3:05.
6:52 left: California 35, Illinois 20 - Illinois brings a blitz on third down and nearly gets the turnover they're looking for. Isaiah Gay on the pressure as the Illini have the ball near its own 40-yard-line.
6:24 left: California 35, Illinois 20 - CAL INT - Illinois goes with a double move pass to Donny Navarro and Peters has the receiver open but he's hit on the throw and it is intercepted.
FINAL: California 35, Illinois 20 - Illinois ends 2019 season with 6-7 record and haven't finished with a winning record or won a bowl game since the 2011 Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl.