ESPN Metric Projects Surprising Output for Illinois Offense vs. Ohio State

No. 17 Illinois (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) is entering its Week 7 matchup against No. 1 Ohio State (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) averaging 37.0 points per game. Over the last two weeks in particular, in two games against Big Ten defenses, the Illini have been scorching-hot, averaging 38.5 points and 500-plus yards of offense.

Be early. Be loud. Wear orange. pic.twitter.com/Kckx1XQnMY
— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) October 7, 2025

Few teams in the entire country have an offense as explosive, dynamic and – especially at this exact moment – as confident as offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr.’s unit.

Illinois' dominant offense vs. Ohio State's dominant defense

Oct 4, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini running back Kaden Feagin (3) celebrates a touchdown with Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) during the second quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

The only issue?

That offense is set to face the stingiest defense in the nation in Ohio State's. The Buckeyes haven’t allowed a team to crack double digits against them, with Ohio’s nine-point showing in Week 3 being the highest scoring output they have allowed.

In its two Big Ten games, Ohio State gave up a total of nine points. (Washington managed six, while Minnesota put up three.)

In a Goliath-versus-Goliath matchup, which unit has the advantage: Illinois’ offense or Ohio State’s defense?

It doesn’t take a football genius to recognize the Buckeyes’ D has a massive advantage. Sure, the Illini offense is legit, but Matt Patricia’s defensive unit has surefire future NFL players – and likely first-round draft picks – at practically every position.

ESPN's SP+ predicts Illinois-Ohio State

Oct 4, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema watches warm ups before the game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Nevertheless, Illinois is projected to do what no team has done to Ohio State all year long. ESPN’s SP+ model – which was originally created and is still operated by Bill Connelly – predicts the Illini to be the first team to surpass 10 points against the Buckeyes.

In fact, the advanced model expects Illinois to hang 19 on Ohio State – which, considering that doubles up the previous season best against that potent defensive unit, is extremely impressive.

But the metric also projects Ohio State to put up a scoring haul of its own, with the final scoreboard displaying 31-19 in favor of the visitors.

WEEK 7 SP+ PICKS

Ducks 28, Hoosiers 22
OU 24, Texas 17 (no injury adjustment!)
Mizzou 26, Bama 24!
Buckeyes 31, Illini 19
A&M 28, Florida 18
Georgia 26, Auburn 21
USC 29, Michigan 25
FSU 27, Pitt 23
Irish 37, NC St 19
BYU 24, Arizona 21https://t.co/RI0t2sg4cJ pic.twitter.com/FBo2PyQO3s
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 6, 2025

Illinois is seeking a huge upset this week, but, realistically, a 12-point loss to the nation’s top-ranked team would still leave the Illini in solid position to fulfill all their goals for the season and surpass the most favorable projections going into 2025.

In fact, a 31-19 game would be an extraordinarily encouraging sight for the Illini on both sides of the field – especially for the defense, which has essentially been nonexistent during Big Ten play.

In the program's perfect world, Illinois shocks Ohio State in Week 7, but at the very least, the Illini must play a competitive game to stay on track. It's a positive sign that one of the most trusted of the prominent metrics expect it from them.