Matchup Preview: Illinois at Minnesota

Can a double-digit road underdog Illinois knock off an opponent for the first time since 2007? Matthew Stevens breaks it down.

Illinois at Minnesota

Date/Time/Place: Saturday, Oct. 4, 2019: 2:30 p.m. CST, TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minn.

Surface: Field Turf

Capacity: 50,805

Records: Illinois 2-2, 0-1 in Big Ten Conference, 4-8, 2-7 in 2018; Minnesota 4-0, 1-0 in 2019, 7-6, 3-6 in 2018

Line: Minnesota by 14. The last time Illinois has pulled off the upset as a double-digit was the 2007 win at then-No. 1 Ohio State. The Illini have lost its last 29 games in this position.

Series notes: Minnesota holds a 38-30-3 lead in series. The Gophers had won three in a row until last year’s 55-31 win for the Illini in Champaign that resulted in Minnesota P.J. Fleck firing his defensive coordinator and conducting major staff changes in the following week.

TV: BTN; Kevin Kugler (PBP), Matt Millen (analyst) & Rick Pizzo (sidelines).

Radio (Illinois): Brian Barnhart (PBP), Wes Lunt (analysis) & Steve Kelly (Pre/HT/Post) » The broadcast can be heard live on TuneIn online radio, Sirius (134) / XM (210) satellite radio & SiriusXM Internet (968), and at FightingIllini.com.

Minnesota’s running game vs. Illinois run defense

Logic would suggest this is one of the key areas where the game is won and lost but the statistics of the Gophers first four games of the season simply don’t back that up. Minnesota currently sits 110th among Football Bowl Subdivision teams in rushing offense and 11th in the Big Ten Conference after failing to reach the 150-yard mark as a team in any game. However, if Tanner Morgan, who leads all Big Ten quarterbacks in passing efficiency, is to carve up Lovie Smith’s Cover-2 defensive scheme, they’ll need to get the Illini linebackers close to the line-of-scrimmage. Through the first three games, Illinois had allowed just a total of 238 yards on the ground and have averaged 11.5 tackles for loss in its four contests. However, two weeks ago the Illini defense was gashed for 346 yards and three touchdowns on the ground at home in a 42-38 loss to Nebraska. Smith needs to hope the bye week allowed for a restructuring of his defensive gaps in preparation for this test.

Edge: EVEN

Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan was 21 of 22 for 396 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-31 win at Purdue last weekend :: Thomas J. Russo/USA TODAY Sports

Minnesota passing game vs. Illinois pass defense

Morgan carved up Purdue’s youthful linebackers and secondary last week with crossing routes and post routes in the middle of its zone. Morgan finished his amazing afternoon in West Lafayette with just one incompletion (21 of 22 for 396 yards and four touchdowns) as receivers ran wide open through the middle third of the Boilermakers defense. The fear for Illini fans (other than Illinois being 103rd in FBS in pass defense) is if the communication of a Cover-2 scheme isn’t near perfect, Morgan may find some windows to find intermediate gains. Illinois’ front four must get pressure to force poor timing of Minnesota’s routes to then result in what Lovie Smith’s defenses have been known for - turnovers.

Edge: Minnesota

Illinois running game vs. Minnesota run defense

To avoid the three-and-out possessions that plagued the Illini late in the loss to Nebraska two weeks ago, Reggie Corbin and Dre Brown will have to likely keep them on schedule with effective first and second-down runs. Corbin is third in the Big Ten in rushing with 104.67 yards per game but is a mixed bag on first down runs (3.96-yard average but with three runs of 10-yards or more). Corbin ran for a career-high 213 yards on 13 carries and two touchdowns (72 and 77 yards) in last year’s win over Minnesota. Normally when you face a triple-option scheme your rushing defense numbers are skewed but Minnesota’s week two win over Georgia Southern hasn’t affected them much. The Gophers, under defensive coordinator Joe Rossi, are limiting opponents to 3.76 yards per attempt and are seventh in the Big Ten in run defense.

Edge: Even

Illinois passing game vs. Minnesota pass defense

This is where we’ll find out if Brandon Peters is capable of making a leap into a top tier of quarterbacks in the conference. Earlier in the week, Illini coach Lovie Smith expressed his desire for the Michigan transfer to remain behind center this season. Where Peters could find some success against this Gophers defense is in the red zone. Even when the field gets compressed, Minnesota is allowing the quarterback to complete 11 of 20 passes for five touchdowns and no turnovers in those situations. Peters will need a big afternoon from the big target of junior Josh Imatorbhebhe The Southern California transfer has four touchdown catches in four games to share the Big Ten lead and rank 24th in FBS.

Edge: Even

Special teams

Illinois may have a decided edge in this phase. The Fighting Illini may have one of the best punters in the nation as Lovie Smith calls him “a weapon” for a defensive coach who loves to play the field position game. Blake Hayes was named Big Ten Special Teams Player of the week on Sept. 23 after averaging 46.0 yards per punt and dropping five punts inside the 20 against Nebraska, including a 59-yard boot to the 2-yard line that set up an Illini score. The Illini may need to flip field position also with a big return from Dre Brown. Brown ranks third in program history in kickoff return average at 25.9 yards per game behind only Red Grange (30.2 ypr) and Mike Bellamy (26.4 ypr), and just ahead of Pierre Thomas (25.3 ypr). His current 30.6 yards-per-return average this season not only leads the Big Ten, but also is on pace to break the Illinois single-season record of 29.7 by Darryl Usher in 1987. Illini kicker James McCourt is one of just four players in FBS with at least two 50-plus field goals this season. On kickoffs, McCourt ranks 14th in FBS in average (64.52 ypk) and 27th in touchback percentage (72.0%). Minnesota freshman kicker Michael Lantz is 1 of his last 3 on field goals and the Gophers have had a punt blocked this season.

Edge: Illinois

Intangibles

Illinois has had a bye week to overlook what has been wrong on both sides of the football in losses to Eastern Michigan and Nebraska. The Gophers have won four straight one-possession games to start the season becoming the first team since Penn State in 1985 and just the fifth in FBS history, according to Elias Sports Bureau, to do so. Therefore, if this game stays or gets tight late, Minnesota is used to executing in big situations. This game may come down to the confidence of Minnesota’s winning streak dating back to last year’s Illinois game and the Illini’s desperation needing this win to maintain bowl eligibility hope.

Edge: Minnesota

PREDICTION
It’s hard to not notice Tanner Morgan as a possible hidden gem in the Big Ten Conference and the entire FBS level. If he’s able to get the football out quickly without distress, it could be a long afternoon and another big offensive game for the Gophers pitch-and-catch game. This game will likely test the patience of Illini offensive coordinator Rod Smith as Minnesota is so vulnerable in pass defense but Illinois must stay committed to a run game that features its best chance to keep the tempo and its best players in the game plan. The Illini have opportunities to keep this game close throughout by being more efficient on offense and creating turnover situations on defense but I’ll take the team with the quarterback playing with more confidence and swagger.

Minnesota 31, Illinois 21