Matchup Preview: No. 16 Michigan at Illinois
No. 16 Michigan at Illinois
Date/Time/Place: Saturday, Oct. 11, 2019: 11 a.m. CST, Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Ill.
Surface: Field Turf
Capacity: 60,670
Records: Michigan 4-1, 2-1 in Big Ten Conference, 10-3, 8-1 in 2018; Illinois 2-3, 0-2 in 2019, 4-8, 2-7 in 2018.
Line: Michigan by 23. Since 2000, Illinois has only been a double-digit home underdog against Michigan once (2004, Illini were 18-point home underdog) and the Wolverines won 30-19.
Series notes: Michigan holds a 70–23–2 lead in series. The Wolverines have won four in a row and have lost in Champaign only once since 1983 (a 38-13 victory over Michigan in 2009).
TV: ABC; Dave Pasch (PBP), Greg McElroy (analyst) & Tom Luginbill (sidelines)
Radio (Illinois): Brian Barnhart (PBP), Wes Lunt (analysis) & Steve Kelly (Pre/HT/Post) » The broadcast can be heard live on TuneIn online radio, Sirius (134) / XM (210) satellite radio & SiriusXM Internet (968), and at FightingIllini.com.
Michigan’s running game vs. Illinois run defense
This is the watershed mark to show whether the Illinois rushing defense is capable of rising to another level of performance. Despite having an experienced offensive line and a highly talented freshman tailback, the Michigan rushing attack has struggled throughout the season and currently ranks just 11th in the Big Ten Conference. The Illini rushing defense has allowed back-to-back 300-yard rushing performances in games against Nebraska and Minnesota. It has been the singularly focus of Lovie Smith's practices this week but that still might not account for the Illini being severely outmanned at the line-of-scrimmage.
Edge: Slightly Michigan
Michigan passing game vs. Illinois pass defense
Michigan quarterback Shea Patterson hasn't been the savior at the signal caller position he was sold to be when the former five-star prospect transferred from Ole Miss. Patterson has an interception in each of the last three games and also has a fumbling problem that has remained contagious throughout the rest of the offense. The Illini pass defense ranks 11th in the Big Ten after giving 300-yard passing games to Eastern Michigan and Nebraska. The problem is Michigan's best attributes in the pass game are the wide receivers including Nico Collins (who has a reception in 19 consecutive contests dating back to the 2018 Outback Bowl) and Donovan Peoples-Jones (who led his team with four receptions for 26 yards and added a 36-yard punt return vs. Iowa).
Edge: Michigan
Illinois running game vs. Michigan run defense
When asked what the identity of this Illinois needs to be, Illinois tailback Reggie Corbin said it still needs to be running the football and controlling the time of possession. Corbin currently sits fourth in the Big Ten with 95.5 yards per game but was basically irrelevant in the 40-17 loss to Minnesota due to the game getting out of hand in the second half. Michigan's run defense is ninth in the Big Ten but that includes games against a run-heavy Army team and a 359-yard performance by Wisconsin. In its last two games (wins vs. Rutgers and Iowa), Michigan has allowed just 47 yards total on the ground.
Edge: Michigan
Illinois passing game vs. Michigan pass defense
This is the game Illinois quarterback Brandon Peters has been waiting on but an undisclosed injury makes him questionable at best to make this start against the school he graduated from. In the three quarters of action against Minnesota last weekend, redshirt freshman Matt Robinson showed little ability to threaten a defense vertically down the field. Over the last four seasons, Michigan has allowed just 138.59 passing yards per game in league play. The next-best Power 5 program in that category is Georgia (183.3) with a difference of 44 yards per contest.
Edge: Michigan
Special teams
Illinois may have a decided edge in this phase. The Fighting Illini may have one of the best punters in the nation as Lovie Smith calls him “a weapon” for a defensive coach who loves to play the field position game. Blake Hayes was named Big Ten Special Teams Player of the week on Sept. 23 after averaging 46.0 yards per punt and dropping five punts inside the 20 against Nebraska, including a 59-yard boot to the 2-yard line that set up an Illini score. He did the same thing again at Minnesota. Illini kicker James McCourt is one of just four players in FBS with at least two 50-plus field goals this season and was the only form of Illinois' offensive points last weekend. On kickoffs, McCourt ranks 14th in FBS in average (64.52 ypk) and 27th in touchback percentage (72.0%). Michigan kicker Jake Moody has converted 4-of-5 field-goal attempts (34, 27, 43 and 33 yards). Wolverines punter Will Hart is averaging 46.9 yards per punt with a 61-yard long against Army and Wisconsin.
Edge: Illinois
Intangibles
Michigan has won 10 of its last 11 games in Champaign against Illinois and despite the Dick Butkus statue dedication being scheduled for Friday afternoon, there is a sense that at least half of the stands could be Michigan fans making the trip for a road game where they're a 20-plus point favorite. The feeling around the Illini program is fourth-year head coach Lovie Smith needs an encouraging performance in these next two games against Michigan and Wisconsin. In order to do that, he may need to break into that magic Smith had as the Bears coach that involved several turnovers and defensive scores in a game.
Edge: Michigan
PREDICTION
It's just hard to see the Illini without Peters behind center having enough of a balanced offensive attack to hang with a nationally-ranked Michigan program. This is one of those games, like the win against Rutgers two weeks ago, that won't at all help calm the national narrative of Jim Harbaugh being able to take the Michigan program to the next level of elite status. The only way Illinois can make this a competitive game into the fourth quarter is by winning the field position, turnover margin and get some big plays in the passing game when Michigan defensive coordinator Don Brown decides to bring aggressive blitzes, which is often. The margin of error for the Illini is more razor-thin than it has been all season.
Michigan 35, Illinois 3