Matchup Preview: Week 3 - Minnesota at Illinois

Minnesota at Illinois

Date/Time/Place: Saturday Nov. 7, 2020: 2:30 p.m. CST, Memorial Stadium.

Surface: Field Turf

Capacity: N/A (No fans allowed for Big Ten games in 2020)

Records: Illinois 0-2; 6-7 (4-5 in Big Ten) in 2019; Minnesota 0-2; 11-2 (7-2 in Big Ten) in 2019.

Line: Minnesota by 7. The last time Minnesota visited Memorial Stadium the Illini defeated the Gophers 55-31 on Nov. 3, 2018 and the Gophers fired its defensive coordinator by the following Monday.

Series notes: Minnesota leads the all-time series 39-30-3 but Illinois is 19-15-1 against the Gophers in Champaign. Last season, Illinois scored two defensive touchdowns but was outscored 24-7 in the second half of a 40-17 loss. Dele Harding had a 40-yard interception return for a touchdown to give Illinois a 7-0 lead in the first quarter and Milo Eifler had a seven-yard fumble return for a touchdown after a Jake Hansen strip sack in the third quarter.

TV: BTN; Mark Followill (play-by-play), Anthony Herron (analyst), and Elise Menaker (sideline).

Radio (Illinois): Brian Barnhart (PBP), Martin O'Donnell (analysis) & Steve Kelly (Pre/HT/Post) » The broadcast can be heard live on TuneIn online radio, Sirius/ XM satellite radio & SiriusXM Internet and at FightingIllini.com.

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Minnesota running game vs. Illinois run defense

Despite all the problems with the Illinois defense, and yes, that list is way too much for Illini head coach/defensive coordinator Lovie Smith, the one positive mark has been their ability to challenge the run. Illinois has only allowed one rushing play over 20 yards and has allowed its first two opponents (Wisconsin and Purdue) just 3.14 yards per rush, which is third in the Big Ten Conference. Illinois solved a lot of that with the addition of two new players on the defensive line in transfer Roderick Perry and true freshman Jer’Zhan Newton creating havoc at the line-of-scrimmage. Minnesota tailback Mohamed Ibrahim leads the Big Ten in rushing attempts (67), rushing yards (347), rushing touchdowns (6) and scoring (36). He scored Minnesota’s final two touchdowns against Michigan and then scored Minnesota’s first four touchdowns at Maryland. Ibrahim’s six touchdowns have covered a collective 26 yards (16 and 5 yards against Michigan and 1, 2, 1 and 1 yards at Maryland). His 22 career touchdowns (9 in 2018, 7 in 2019 and 6 in 2020) rank 10th in school history. Ibrahim’s eight career 100-yard rushing games ranks tied for 11th in school history (one more would tie him for ninth). Ibrahim’s two career 200-yard rushing games (224 yards against Georgia Tech in 2018 Quick Lane Bowl and 207 yards at Maryland in 2020) rank tied for fifth in school history with David Cobb, Terry Jackson and Tellis Redmon. Laurence Maroney, Chris Darkins, Darrell Thompson and Gary White all ended their careers with three 200-yard games.

Edge: Minnesota

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Minnesota passing game vs. Illinois pass defense

Tanner Morgan has thrown a touchdown pass in a school-record 16 straight games (last game without a passing touchdown was Minnesota’s 2018 victory at Wisconsin) and the Gophers are 12-4 in those games. Morgan was named All-Big Ten Second Team last year after setting Minnesota single-season records for passing yards (3,253), passing touchdowns (30), completion percentage (66.0%), passing yards per game (250.2), touchdown-interception ratio (4.28) and pass efficiency rating (178.7). The Gophers top target Rashod Bateman has played in 28 games for Minnesota and has already established himself as one of the best receivers ever to wear the Maroon and Gold. He has 125 career catches (11th in school history) for 2,086 yards (seventh in school history) and 17 touchdowns (tied for fifth in school history). Bateman was named third-team All-American last season, All-Big Ten First Team and was the Big Ten Receiver of the Year as a sophomore. The Georgia native, who was also one of 12 semifinalists for the Biletnikoff Award in 2019, caught 60 passes for 1,219 yards (second most in a single season) and 11 touchdowns (tied for second most in a single season) last year. It'll be interesting to see if A) Illinois can establish any kind of reasonable pass rush early and B) if Lovie Smith allows Nate Hobbs, who was consistently burned in coverage last week vs. Purdue to handle Bateman by himself.

Edge: Minnesota

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Illinois running game vs. Wisconsin run defense

What was considered a possible three-headed backfield monster of Mike Epstein, Chase Brown and Jakari Norwood has been narrowed down to just Brown and Epstein in the first two games of this season.

Brown had a team-high 73 yards on 11 carries after getting the start vs. Purdue and is seen as a quick-hitter in the Illinois backfield that now has a dual-threat option at quarterback in Coran Taylor.

“I knew if I wanted to start, I had to get in the playbook and learn and show the coaches I can play in a starting role,” Brown said this week. “That whole transition from Western Michigan to here, I knew I wanted to have a big role on this team. Getting the start against Purdue is exciting, but I need to build confidence and experience and carry that on into the next game.”

Minnesota has allowed both of its first two opponents (vs. Michigan, at Maryland) over 250 yards rushing and Illinois hasn't reached that mark since a two-week stretch in 2018 when they beat Minnesota in Champaign and lost at Nebraska.

Micah Dew-Treadway (1.0 TFL this year) anchors the Gopehers defensive line. The Notre Dame grad transfer is the lone returning starter on a rebuilt line.

Edge: Illinois

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Illinois passing game vs. Wisconsin pass defense

We broke this down in the film review at the start of the week but Coran Taylor has to be better at setting his feet and having a stable lower half when he makes throws. After starting last week as the fourth-string quarterback, Taylor was thrown into duty vs. Purdue after following Brandon Peters’ positive COVID test, Isaiah Williams being out due to COVID-19 contact tracing, and Matt Robinson’s right foot injury injury on the first drive of the game. Taylor was 17-of-29 passing for 279 yards and two touchdowns along with 32 rushing yards in the first significant playing time of his career. Taylor is likely to start vs. Minnesota, the first start of his career, making him the third different starting quarterback for the Illini this season.

Minnesota allowed Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa, the younger brother of former Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, to throw for 394 yards and rush for two touchdowns in a 45-44 loss to the Terrapins. Taylor is of that same style but Minnesota has not seen much success in forcing turnovers by the quarterback as their defense has only one interception and one fumble in two games.

Edge: Even (Slightly Illinois)

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Special teams

The Illini bring back two of the best punters in All-Big Ten punter Blake Hayes. Mistakes are not usually part of the deal for the Illini special teams under Bob Ligashesky. Illinois will again be forced to turn to Danville native Caleb Griffin was 3-for-3 on extra points and made a 28-yard field goal against Purdue with starting kicker James McCourt out due to COVID-19 contact tracing.

Minnesota has suffered a rash of injuries in the kicking game and therefore have been restricted to using walk-on options resulting in the worst punting game in the Big Ten Conference. The Gophers kicker Brock Walter missed the extra point in overtime at Maryland giving the Terrapins the victory.

Edge: Illinois

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Intangibles

Minnesota has a player in Tanner Morgan they can rely on at quarterback and Illinois is hoping for a stellar performance from the confident Coran Taylor. Tanner Morgan is 15-6 as a starter and he ranks third in school history in touchdown passes (41), eighth in passing yards (5,040), eighth in completions (327) and 12th in passing attempts (506). P.J. Fleck, an Illinois native, also seems to have the momentum in this rivalry after dumping the game in Champaign in 2018. The Gophers are 14-5 under Fleck from that game on and Fleck's offenses have always been able to put up points against Lovie Smith's defenses. The critical way Illinois can keep this game close is stuff Minnesota's run game and not let Morgan get into the early rhythm that each of the last two quarterbacks have been able to produce.

Edge: Minnesota

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PREDICTION
Minnesota has been atrocious on defense and special teams in its first two losses of the 2020 season but for the most part, they're a healthy football team that knows they can put up points against practically anybody in the conference. Illinois has only been able to rely on its ability to slow down running attacks and playing the special teams field position game. The Illini are also going to be down a significant portion of its roster due to CDC/Big Ten guidelines on COVID-19 contact tracing. P.J. Fleck knows his Gophers need this game badly to get back on track as they have Iowa, Purdue and Wisconsin on the schedule following this contest. It seems like we say this every week now but this is a must-win game for Lovie Smith. As simple as this sounds to say, Minnesota has all of its stars on offense and they're in a groove on that side of the ball. Illinois does not and with Taylor leading the offense, you still never know if a turnover is coming at any moment he has the football.

Minnesota 35, Illinois 24