Big Ten Tournament Scenarios: Indiana Women Control Destiny To Avoid First Day

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Time is getting short in the Big Ten women’s basketball schedule. Most teams have two games left before the Big Ten Tournament begins next Wednesday at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

The Big Ten has a new tournament format this season with the addition of the four West Coast schools. Fifteen teams make the tournament. Three are left out entirely.

Indiana is currently 9-7 in the Big Ten and in no danger of being one of the teams left out. What the Hoosiers are fighting to avoid is to have to play on the first day of the tournament.

In the previous format, you had to be pretty bad to play on day one. The bottom four teams in the conference had to navigate the long route to the championship game – a punishing five games in five days.

Now, it’s middle of the pack teams that will be cursed with that long road. To wit, Indiana may be 9-7, but if the season ended today, the Hoosiers would be the No. 9 seed in the tournament – the final spot that gives a bye to day two of the tournament.

No team wants to play five games in five days. Apart from the toll it takes, you’re exposed to games that might offer little benefit and maximum harm. An upset on day one of the conference tournament could have NCAA Tournament seeding ramifications or might even be the difference between making or missing the tournament entirely.

Indiana cannot get the double-bye to start the tournament on Friday. The best case scenario if you stack predicted outcomes in Indiana’s favor is that they get the No. 5 seed, partly due to teams ahead of Indiana playing each other, so the goal for the Hoosiers is to safely clinch their spot to being their Big Ten Tournament adventure on day two.

For the purposes of this story, we set the results of the other games as giving the home team benefit of the doubt. If the home team is within 15 spots of its opponent in the NET, it gets the winning nod.

Here’s some Big Ten Tournament scenarios to consider for the Hoosiers.

If All Predicted Outcomes Came True

Indiana's Sydney Parrish (33) grabs a rebound during the Indiana versus Ohio State womens basketball game at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Thursday, Feb. 20, 2025. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

By the model we use, Indiana would win the rest of its games and would finish 11-7 in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers would be in a three-way tie with Michigan and Michigan State for sixth place in the conference. It would be a high enough finish to help the Hoosiers avoid day one of the Big Ten Tournament.

Indiana lost to both the Spartans and Wolverines, so the Hoosiers would be at the bottom of that three-way tiebreaker. The Hoosiers would be the No. 8 seed and would play No. 9 seed Nebraska in the first game on Thursday at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

What If Indiana Loses All Of Its Remaining Games?

This isn’t a very likely scenario considering that the Hoosiers finish the regular season on Sunday at struggling Purdue, but if it did happen, Indiana would finish 9-9 in the Big Ten and in a three-way tie for 10th place with Iowa and Minnesota.

Indiana would lose a three-way tiebreaker with those teams and slip all the way down to a No. 12 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. The Hoosiers would have to play on day one of the Big Ten Tournament on Wednesday against No. 13 seed Washington with the winner advancing to play No. 5 seed Illinois.

There is one scenario where Indiana can lose out and still avoid day one of the Big Ten Tournament. Washington would have to win at Minnesota and Northwestern would have to beat Nebraska in Evanston.

In that case, Indiana would be in a four-way tie for ninth place with Iowa, Nebraska and Minnesota. The Hoosiers would be on top of that tiebreaker based on a 2-1 record against those teams.

What If Indiana Goes 1-1?

The most likely 1-1 scenario is that Indiana would lose at home to Maryland on Thursday and win at Purdue on Sunday. Reversing the outcomes changes very little. If Indiana goes 1-1, it would finish 10-8 in the Big Ten and in a three-way tie for eighth place with Nebraska and Oregon.

The Hoosiers would win this three-way tiebreaker based on winning percentage against the No. 3 seed in the tournament, so that's a tenuous scenario that can change based on results elsewhere in the conference. However, if this did occur, Indiana would be the No. 8 seed and play No. 9 Nebraska in the first game on Thursday at the Big Ten Tournament. Oregon would be the loser in this scenario as they would slip to the No. 10 seed, the highest seed that has to play on the first day.

If Indiana went 1-1, one result that could affect Indiana’s seed in a bad way would be if Minnesota won at Michigan State on Saturday. That would bring Minnesota and Michigan State into a tiebreaker with the Hoosiers – teams Indiana lost to. In that case, Indiana slips all the way down to a No. 11 seed as it would be at the bottom of a four-way tiebreaker with Nebraska, Minnesota and Michigan State.

Avoiding UCLA and USC?

UCLA, USC women's basketball. — UCLA Bruins guard Londynn Jones (3) pressures USC Trojans guard JuJu Watkins (12) during the fourth quarter at Galen Center. | Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

Many of these scenarios have Indiana in the No. 8-9 game. The winner of that game will play the No. 1 seed on Friday. Whether that’s current Big Ten leader USC or second place UCLA – the Trojans and Bruins play for Big Ten supremacy at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday – it will be daunting task for whichever team advances from the 8-9 game as both the Bruins and Trojans are top 5 nationally.

If Indiana was the No. 7 or No. 10 seed, it would be lined up to play the No. 2 seed on Friday, which will be the runner-up in the UCLA-USC battle.

Indiana would have to rise up to a No. 6 seed or fall to a No. 11 seed or lower to avoid UCLA or USC in a Friday quarterfinal.

If All Predicted Outcomes Came True

What If Indiana Loses All Of Its Remaining Games?

What If Indiana Goes 1-1?

Avoiding UCLA and USC?

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