Indiana Basketball So Far: Mackenzie Mgbako Can Be An Elite Scorer, But Consistency Is Needed

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Indiana men’s basketball is a third of the way through its season. Twelve games are in the books with a minimum of 19 to go, though it will likely be more assuming the Hoosiers make the Big Ten Tournament.

With the usual Christmas pause in games upon us, it’s a good time to look at Indiana’s most important contributors and how they’ve fared so far.

All players who have played 10 minutes per game will be considered except Anthony Leal. The senior has not played in enough games (Leal only reached 10 minutes in four of the six games he played) to have a workable sample size.

The series continues with guard Mackenzie Mgbako.

Mackenzie Mgbako: Tale Of The Tape

Points, Rebounds, Assists: 13.9 ppg, 5 rpg, 1.4 apg.

Percentages: 51.7 FG%, 55.7 2P%, 45.7 3P%, 89.7 FT%.

Advanced stats: 23% usage rate, 1 offensive win share, 0.5 defensive win shares, 1.5 overall win shares.

Opponent	Points Produced	Points Allowed	Net Points	Foul trouble
SIU-Edwardsville	13.9	8	5.9	Y
Eastern Illinois	11.6	7	4.6	N
South Carolina	17.7	11.1	6.6	N
UNC-Greensboro	10.1	8.8	1.3	N
Louisville	8.9	11.8	-2.9	N
Gonzaga	7.8	16.4	-8.6	N
Providence	11.7	14.1	-2.4	N
Sam Houston	9.2	9.5	-0.3	N
Miami (Ohio)	6.2	8	-1.9	N
Minnesota	13.8	13.1	0.7	N
at Nebraska	2.5	4.3	-1.8	Y
Chattanooga	6.6	8.9	-2.3	N

Explanation: Points produced and points allowed are included in the advanced box score provided to the media via live stats from each game.

Points produced and points allowed are based on how many points a player is responsible for or allows while on the court based on a per 100 possessions standard. The formula, developed by basketball analyst Dr. Dean Oliver, is way too complicated to explain here, but that’s the basic premise.

Net points is merely the points produced with points allowed subtracted.

Foul trouble is a measure I did myself. Foul trouble is obviously important because it compromises the rotation, but if a player plays with fouls, it can also compromise their defense.

A player qualified as being in foul trouble if: a) they picked up two fouls in the first half; b) picked up a third foul before 15 minutes are left in the second half; or c) picked up a fourth foul before five minutes are left in the second half.

The reason for this standard is to eliminate accumulated fouls late in the game that are done purposely to put the opposition at the free throw line. Those are not fouls that are bad or that necessarily compromise the team in the way earlier fouls do.

What’s Been Good

Indiana's Mackenzie Mgbako (21) shoots past Minnesota's Femi Odukale (11) during the Indiana versus Minnesota men's basketball game at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Monday, Dec. 9, 2024. | Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

When it comes to Mgbako’s upside, he can be one of the best players in the country offensively.

At his best, he’s as gifted a scorer as there is. That was evident in the first game of the season when he carried Indiana to an 80-61 victory over SIU-Edwardsville with a 31-point effort, including a red-hot 13 of 17 performance from the floor.

Mgbako can score in multiple ways. He’s become a very good 3-point shooter. He’s extremely reliable at the line. He’s top 100 in the nation in both 3-point and free throw percentage.

Mgabko gets to the rim, too. According to barttorvik.com, he’s taken almost as many shots (42) at the rim as he has from beyond the arc (46). He’s made 64.3%.

As a scorer, he is undeniably gifted. Without question, Mgbako is Indiana’s most talented offensive player on the perimeter.

Mgbako is also a solid rebounder. He’s only had fewer than three rebounds twice. He hasn’t gotten himself into foul trouble much – only two games by our definition. But when Mgbako does pick up fouls it tends to be dramatic – such as the pair he picked up in the first minute at Nebraska on Dec. 13.

What Needs Work

While his upside is fantastic, Mgbako still hasn’t been able to demonstrate it on a consistent basis. For all of his gifts, he’s had four games under 10 points this season.

Off days happen, but Mgbako has played enough now that the peaks and valleys should be leveling out. He shouldn’t have stretches like his last five games, where he’s scored 13, 4, 13, 2 and 14 points.

Then there’s the non-scoring parts of Mgbako’s game – all of which need more work besides rebounding.

Mgbako was infamously poor defensively during his freshman season. He’s not as bad as he was last season, but no one is going to confuse him with an all-defensive player, either. He is part of the problem when it comes to missed switches on the defensive end.

Mgbako’s turnovers also are up this season to 1.5 per game, despite playing slightly fewer minutes per contest. It’s not so much the turnovers as the nature of them. In the last game against Chattanooga, he threw a routine, uncontested inbounds pass in the direction of an Indiana player without watching what he was doing. It sailed out of bounds. Lapses in concentration can be an issue.

Is The Scheme Helping?

Mgabko is a fascinating, mercurial talent for the Hoosiers. Looking purely at the best of his data, you wonder why he isn’t close to 20 points per game. His percentages would suggest he can get there. He can score in almost every important way, and yet he’s second on the team in scoring at 13.9 points per game.

His game-to-game stats are strange. His minutes have been dropping of late. Even if you take out the 13 minutes he played at Nebraska due to foul trouble, he hasn’t topped 30 minutes in a game since Battle 4 Atlantis.

That’s strange given that Mgbako topped 30 three times in the first seven games and was only below 25 minutes once. He’s been below 25 in four of the last five games.

Is there something missing here that statistics can’t explain? Mgbako needs to be on the floor and involved.

Mgbako would be the player I’d run the offense through first to start every game. Force the other teams to account for him, and then kick the ball inside to Malik Reneau and Oumar Ballo. Good as they are in the paint, they can’t score with the same versatility as Mgbako can.

Could Mgbako be trusted with that role? Again, only coach Mike Woodson knows, but he certainly has the production level to back it up. Mgbako is averaging 9.7 shots per game. He should be well into double-digit attempts per game to truly maximize his skill set.

Do that, and his defensive deficiencies will be less pronounced because, in effect, he’d be out-scoring his shortcomings. As of now, he’s almost dead even in points produced versus points allowed. Give him the rock and let him do what he does best: score.

Mackenzie Mgbako: Tale Of The Tape

What’s Been Good

What Needs Work

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