Indiana Men’s Basketball Bracketology: Hoosiers Still Hanging Around

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – You’ve probably seen the internet meme based on the theme This Is What People Think.

As in My Mom Thinks This Is What I Do, usually with a picture illustrating the most flattering aspect of the topic, juxtaposed with This Is What I Really Do, usually with a picture showing the reality of the situation.

This meme might fit Indiana men’s basketball and its NCAA Tournament situation perfectly right now as far as fan perception is concerned.

Coming off of a 79-70 loss at Northwestern on Wednesday, its fifth straight loss to the Wildcats and the first such stretch since the Woodrow Wilson administration, Indiana fans likely think the Hoosiers’ NCAA Tournament chances are dead on arrival.

However, the bracketologists aren’t as glum about the Hoosiers. At least not yet. Even taking into account the loss to Northwestern, Indiana is still right in the NCAA Tournament hunt.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, the pioneer of bracketology, released his most recent projection on Friday morning. Indiana is not in his 68-team field, but the Hoosiers are the second team left out of the tournament.

In his projection before the Northwestern loss, Indiana was his last team in the field. In effect, Lunardi swapped Ohio State for Indiana in his field based on mid-week results – an Ohio State win at Purdue and an Indiana defeat at Northwestern.

So, at least in Lunardi’s view, the Northwestern defeat was not a mortal blow to Indiana’s tournament hopes.

It kept the theme going of Indiana being right on the cusp of tournament oblivion, or having the opportunity to solidify their place in the field.

Indiana is part of a group of Big Ten teams with similar resumes – both in terms of strengths and weaknesses.

Maryland, Ohio State, Nebraska (the first team left out by Lunardi) and Indiana are all bunched close together. They have wins and losses against each other. Indiana is 1-1 against this group with Maryland coming to Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall at noon ET on Sunday. Indiana will host Ohio State in the last regular season game.

Maryland, for example, is loved by the advanced metrics – the Terrapins are No. 13 in barttorvik.com’s ratings, but it has weak results-based metrics.

Indiana is the other way around. The Hoosiers rank in the 60s in predictive metrics like Torvik and Kenpom.com but fare much better in the results-based metrics. Indiana is still No. 29 in the KPI metric.

This ambiguity makes it hard for bracketologists and will make it difficult for the NCAA Selection Committee if the pattern holds into March.

Indiana rides the wave as the results ebb and flow. Bracketmatrix.com still has the majority of the bracketology sites it tracks completed before the Northwestern loss. Indiana was included in the field in 41 projections – some with the Hoosiers as high as a No. 10 seed.

What is certain is that Indiana’s fate will likely be determined by the difficult seven-game stretch that begins on Sunday.

Maryland, at Purdue, at Wisconsin, Michigan, at Michigan State, UCLA and Purdue at home is the gauntlet Indiana will run from Sunday until Feb. 23. All but UCLA would currently count as Quad 1 victories if Indiana is able to get them.

A 4-3 or better record in those games would likely cement Indiana’s place in the field. A 2-5 record or worse would likely drown Indiana’s NCAA Tournament hopes. A 3-4 record would likely continue the pattern of bubble ambiguity the Hoosiers currently find themselves stuck in.

Coming into the season, Indiana fans hoped there would be no ambiguity as far as the Hoosiers’ NCAA Tournament credentials were concerned, so whether mere tournament qualification pleases the fan base is a dubious prospect.

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